MENA’s air cargo activity declined in 1Q 2023, while air connectivity in 2022 improved:Cargo activity in the Middle East’s air freight sector fell in 1Q 2023 in tandem with falling global demand, according to data published in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook for 1Q 2023 (pdf). Cargo activity has been in steady decline since early 2022, with the Middle East trailing behind global averages. On the bright side, the region has improved by leaps and bounds in terms of rankings based on IATA’s air connectivity measure and aircraft deliveries are on the up.

Middle East cargo traffic in 1Q 2023 fell 8.1% y-o-y in capacity ton-kilometer (CTK) figures. Volumes stood at 7.5% below pre-pandemic levels (1Q 2019). Volumes in the sector peaked in April 2021 when regional CTKs hit 15.3% above 1Q 2019, according to IATA’s Air Cargo Market Analysis for April 2021 (pdf).

Although the decline in the Middle East’s cargo volumes is attributable to a broader global slowdown in air freight demand, the region has underperformed compared to the rest of the world. World CTKs in 1Q 2023 were 7.1% below pre-pandemic numbers, indicating that the rest of the world saw slightly better performance in terms of air freight volumes.

On another note, the MENA region’s air connectivity saw improvements in 2022: Rankings of Middle Eastern economies in terms of air connectivity—which is a composite that measures connections to destinations around the world — in 2022 improved greatly in comparison to before the pandemic, with GCC economies and Egypt leading the charge. Saudi Arabia and Egypt each jumped 14 spots, with Saudi Arabia settling at 13, and Egypt settling at 24.

The UAE was the highest ranked in the region, rising three points to seventh worldwide, retaining a position in the world’s top 10 and first place in the Middle East.

Other risers: Turkey climbed eight spots to break into the world’s top 10 most air connected economies in 2022 at number 10. Meanwhile, Iran rose nine spots to 58th. Bahrain also rose six spots to 51st, while Tunisia climbed six spots to land at 67th in the world. Jordan rose 11 spots to 53rd and Iraq climbed seven spots to 64.

On the downside: Oman dropped 10 places to settle at 56th globally, while Qatar fell nine places to settle at 20. Morocco and Kuwait fell two places, with Morocco settling at 42nd in the world, and Kuwait settling at 45. Algeria also fell three spots to 71.

Global air connectivity fell:Although Middle Eastern economies displayed progress in terms of rankings, absolute measures of air connectivity fell across the board, meaning that the gains in rankings were likely the result of industry-wide reshuffles in global aviation in the wake of pandemic-related disruptions, rather than tangible results of policy, IATA says.

Looking ahead: Air connectivity is quickly approaching pre-covid levels, with the Middle East 98% there as of March of this year.

Aircraft deliveries to the Middle East have also been on an upward trend since bottoming out in 2020, IATA’s data showed. Deliveries for 2023 are set to settle at 82 aircraft, indicating 50% growth from 2022 and signaling recovery. Whereas 2019’s orders favored widebody aircraft, 2020 saw the region’s carriers switch their preferences to narrowbodies. Aircraft orders set for delivery in 2023 continue to lean towards narrowbody aircraft. Booming demand for aviation in the Middle East is set to drive new orders into the next few years, with airlines in KSA and the UAE going on a recent buying spree.

Tags: