Iran may waive its Hormuz fee to end the US blockade, but shipowners need more than an open strait

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: Why a reopened Hormuz may still be closed to shipping + XRG locks in FID on Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas field

Good morning, wonderful people — a mixed bag today: shipping, energy, and aviation all pulling in different directions.

A reopened Hormuz won't be enough for shipowners while control of the strait stays unsettled. War-risk premiums are still running multiples above pre-war levels, and ins’ers keep saying the same thing: a ceasefire on paper isn't the same as a promise nobody's ship gets seized, mined, or shot at tomorrow.

Adnoc's investment arm just went upstream in Azerbaijan. XRG made the final investment decision on the next phase of the Absheron gas field, alongside Socar and TotalEnergies — part of a five-year plan to build XRG into a top-five global gas player, one Caspian field at a time.

And the UAE just suspended Iranian airline flights entirely. The move complies with Washington's latest sanctions deadline — one more Gulf state falling in line, and one more piece of Iran's shrinking air network gone.

We’re happy to welcome Ahmed Mohsen as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum — the AI edition.

Ahmed Mohsen is the co-founder and CTO of MNT-Halan, one of the fastest-growing fintech platforms in the Middle East and Africa, serving over 8 mn customers across Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE. He leads the company’s technology strategy and architected Neuron, MNT-Halan’s proprietary core banking system, overseeing a team of more than 90 engineers building the company’s digital infrastructure. A serial entrepreneur with deep roots in cybersecurity, Mohsen also co-founded SecureMisr, one of Egypt’s pioneering cybersecurity firms, acquired by Cysiv in 2020.

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Another Iranian route cut off

The UAE has suspended all flights by Iranian airlines to and from the country until further notice, the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) said in a statement carried by state news agency Wam. The suspension took effect today, and the GCAA tied it directly to the US ban on Iranian airlines using airports around the world. The US Treasury’s threat of secondary sanctions on any airport or company servicing Iranian carriers kicked in on Wednesday.

The UAE isn’t alone: Last week, Oman and Azerbaijan barred Iranian airlines, Iraq banned flights to Baghdad, and Georgia suspended flights to Tbilisi, the Financial Times reports. Mahan Air has also dropped its Istanbul, Ankara, and Muscat routes. Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization says it is talking to Oman and Iraq about keeping some flights running, including sending Baghdad-bound flights to the pilgrimage city of Najaf instead. Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei has warned that countries shutting out Iranian flights could face reciprocal restrictions.

Why it matters: Flights were one of the last threads left after Abu Dhabi halted all trade, commercial exchange, and financial transactions with Iran in August. The central bank tightened the financial side further on Wednesday, sanctioning Bank Melli’s UAE branches over money laundering and terror financing violations.

More routes, more redundancy

Aramco is eyeing more ways out of the Gulf. The Saudi oil giant is studying a fourth and fifth crude-export corridor — on top of the three it already uses — as it looks to build more redundancy into its export system, CEO Amin Nasser told Nikkei Asia. Engineering and feasibility work is already underway, he said, without disclosing where the new routes would run or when they could come online. He also warned the disruption “is not really getting better,” with Aramco only supplying term-contract buyers and pumping well below pre-war levels.

Two of the three existing routes hang on one pipeline. The first runs through Hormuz, with crude loading at Ras Tanura and crossing on shuttle tankers for ship-to-ship transfer outside the Gulf. The other two start with the 7 mn bbl / d East-West pipeline to Yanbu, which restarted at reduced rates last week after being knocked offline by drone strikes. From there, cargoes either sail south through Bab Al Mandab or go north through Egypt’s 2.5 mn bbl / d Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean — the only route that avoids both chokepoints. A full restart for the pipeline is still six to eight weeks out.

More storage closer to buyers: Aramco is also looking to expand its crude storage overseas, including in Japan, as another buffer against disruptions. The company holds 5.3 mn barrels of crude at Knoc’s Ulsan facilities in South Korea under a five-year storage agreement, which it expanded in June, while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have separately asked Tokyo to expand their Japan-based stockpiles roughly tenfold from 8 mn barrels. Aramco is also among the companies weighing bonded storage at Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

The Max wait is over

) Turkish Airlines has signed the Boeing 737 Max order it first floated two years ago. The firm order covers 100 737-8s — with options for 50 more and the right to swap in the larger 737-10 — marking the carrier’s biggest-ever Boeing single-aisle order, according to a press release. Deliveries are due between 2033 and 2037, according to a separate announcement.

REMEMBER- The Max order completes the other half of Turkish Airlines’ Boeing buying spree. The carrier finalized an order last year for up to 75 787 Dreamliners, slated for delivery between 2029 and 2034. Together, the two agreements cover up to 225 Boeing jets, with the Dreamliners feeding its long-haul expansion and the Maxes aimed at its short- and medium-haul network.

Market watch

Oil prices rose more than 1% this morning after US president Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 1.32 to USD 105.64 / bbl by 00.36 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.70 to USD 93.11 / bbl.

The Baltic Index gives back some gains: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 1.3% to 3,426 points on Friday. The capesize index dropped 2.6% to 5,784 points, while the panamax rose 1.1% to 2,407 points. The smaller supramax edged up 0.2% to 1,786 points.

The Drewry World Container Index edged down 1% at USD 4,468 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. Transpacific rates held firm — Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 2% and Shanghai-New York was unchanged. Asia-Europe continued to weaken, with Shanghai-Genoa down 5% and Shanghai-Rotterdam down 4%. The East-West container freight market remains uncertain as carriers match capacity against uneven demand and continued operational disruptions, with Middle East tensions still a key risk. Suez Canal transits are picking up, although Red Sea security concerns continue to cloud the pace of the resort. Panama Canal capacity also remains constrained, while labor disruptions in Germany and low Rhine water levels are adding pressure to European supply chains.

The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we'll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt's claim to be the region's energy hub still holds.

Issue I lands Wednesday, 30 September, and looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, how the country went from gas exporter to importer in a decade, and what keeping the lights on actually cost us.

Coming straight to your inbox — Wednesday, 30 September.

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Iran may drop its Hormuz fee demand to end the US blockade, but shipowners want more than a reopened strait

Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz proposal — and with it, any near-term answer to the question that matters most to shipping: Who controls traffic through the strait? Tehran is refusing to soften its conditions, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said yesterday that Iran will decide its next move once mediators convey a definitive US position, CBS News reports. The proposal closely tracked the Islamabad memorandum signed in June, which fell apart by July over that same control question.

The standoff is escalating in the meantime. Iran had offered to reopen the strait and restart nuclear talks within seven days if Washington lifted its naval blockade, waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and observed a ceasefire that included Lebanon.

The fee dispute had looked closer to a fix than the control question: Tehran was willing to shelve its demand for Hormuz transit fees if the US lifted its blockade, regional sources told Reuters last week, with the fee question going into a side attachment to the main agreement. Iran held firm on administrative control of the waterway, though, and one source said Tehran may defer the toll but won’t cede control of the strait.

Gulf states reject both: Gulf leaders told Trump in New York they won’t accept any Iranian control of Hormuz, the newswire reports. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan went further at the UN General Assembly on Saturday, demanding a return to pre-28 February conditions in the strait with no fees or taxes.

Shipowners will judge the strait by its 10th transit

That puts the terms of passage at the center of the talks, as we flagged in August. Governments can declare a strait open while it stays closed to the owners, underwriters, and cargo interests who have to commit ships, crews, and capital to it, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM. The test is the 10th transit after an agreement and whether each one follows the same rules.

Iranian clearance would bring its own risks for owners. Clearance by an authority Washington has sanctioned creates compliance risk for owners, charterers, and their banks, and London war cover can lapse if any transit charge is paid, Lehmacher says. The Lloyd’s Market Association has already advised underwriters not to cover shipowners against transit fees imposed by any party, Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s David Osler told us in August. “A strait you must ask permission to use is not open. It is licensed,” Lehmacher notes.

The Iranian authority’s blacklist adds another gate: Only 21 of the now-77 listed ships have kept transiting, Lehmacher says. The list already includes Adnoc-controlled vessels, so for shippers the question becomes who owns the ship as well as where it sails. Before returning, operators will want repeated safe transits on the recognized route, credible mine clearance, and cover they can buy, he adds.

Each phase of the agreement would remove a different obstacle. Released assets move money, not ships, and lifting the blockade mainly restores Iranian barrels, Lehmacher says. Everyone else needs underwriters willing to price the risk rather than refuse it, and that only comes with time without incident. In June, analysts reckoned trapped tonnage could clear within 10 days of unrestricted passage, he notes. Liner schedules would take longer because they follow ins., crew availability, and port rotations.

The ins. clock outruns the midterms

An agreement before the US midterms looks unlikely. Trump has said an agreement could come after the 3 November vote — though US officials separately told the WSJ he’s also weighing a return to bombing once the election is past, a position they described as still unsettled. Former US negotiator Dennis Ross puts the odds of one before it at 30%, arguing neither side wants to give up its leverage first.

Lehmacher expects owners to spend the pre-midterm window mostly securing their positions rather than sailing. Few will risk crews in an unsettled strait, he says, and underwriters may argue the strait was briefly passable at certain points during the war, or that June’s now-collapsed ceasefire restarted the clock — a reference to the 12-month “deprivation of use” threshold under which owners of trapped vessels can claim total-loss payouts. Charterers are seeking co-assured status under owners’ war policies, he adds. He expects meticulous records and few voluntary departures until the clock’s start date is settled.

Workarounds backed by long-term commitments will stay, Lehmacher says. DP World has an in-principle agreement for two Fujairah terminals under a 50-year concession, and Adnoc is fast-tracking a second pipeline to Fujairah. Rerouting through Oman, which one Omani executive estimates adds about a fifth to costs, and state-backed shuttles will shrink once ships can call directly, he says.

XRG doubles down on Azerbaijan gas with Absheron expansion and export-route exposure

XRG now has capital committed at both ends of Azerbaijan’s gas chain. Adnoc’s investment arm XRG, TotalEnergies, and Azerbaijan’s Socar have taken the final investment decision (FID) on the full-field development of the offshore Absheron gas and condensate field, XRG said in a statement. The FID comes less than two weeks after XRG closed its stake in the Southern Gas Corridor — the pipeline system that carries Azerbaijani gas to Europe. The expansion is due online in 2029 and will develop nearly 5 tcf of recoverable gas.

IN CONTEXT- TotalEnergies operates the project with a 35% stake. Socar holds another 35%, and XRG owns the remaining 30%.

We knew the Absheron expansion was coming — although the FID landed later than initially expected. In March, the second phase was targeting a 2029 startup, with an investment decision expected in July. Adnoc had also signed an agreement by June to take gas from Absheron once the expanded project comes online.

Why it matters: XRG’s corridor stake is a minority one and comes with no control over flows or capacity. It does give the company a position in the infrastructure alongside its Azerbaijani production, so XRG earns on the molecules and on the route that moves them.

Azerbaijan is one piece of a wider Caspian build-out. XRG holds 38% of Turkmenistan’s offshore block I concession, which produces nearly 400 mmcf/d of gas and sits on more than 7 tcf of resources.

Outside the Caspian, XRG has been spending across the Americas. It holds equity in all five trains of the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas and upstream interests in Argentina and is now evaluating a potential investment in Shell-backed LNG Canada.

SAR buys 782 railcars to haul Phosphate 3 + Asyad’s new bulkers come pre-booked

SAR’s phosphate push

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) ordered 782 freight cars from US manufacturer Greenbrier for the Northern Railway network expansion tied to the Phosphate 3 project, according to a post on LinkedIn. The order includes tank cars for phosphoric acid and molten sulfur, as well as intermodal units, and the tank cars have already started shipping to the Kingdom, according to a press release from the manufacturer. Neither company disclosed the value of the order.

REFRESHER- In late 2025, SAR tendered an SAR 4 bn project to double-track 100 km of its phosphate railway, which links the Wa’ad Al Shamal mining hub to Ras Al Khair. The company awarded the contract — the first of four planned upgrades to the phosphate rail network — to local firm Alomaier Trading & Contracting last month, Meed reported.

IN CONTEXT- SAR has been adding freight capacity across its network. In April, the company rolled out five new freight routes linking Gulf ports to the Kingdom’s central and northern logistics hubs, with extensions to Red Sea ports and northern neighbors. The routes run through yards including Ras Al Khair and Hail and carry petrochemicals and minerals. Later in June, SAR awarded the contract for a 22.7 km rail link connecting Dammam’s Second Industrial City to the national network to an OHL Arabia-Hassan Allam Construction JV.

Fresh hull, straight to work

Asyad Shipping’s Kamsarmax is out on charter: The Omani carrier took delivery of Ain Al Sarooj, the first of two 85k-dwt vessels it ordered in April, and deployed it on a one-year time charter — while Ain Al Thawarah, due by end-November, has already secured a two-year charter, according to a disclosure (pdf). The two 2023-built vessels cost Asyad around OMR 28 mn combined.

Doubling down on dry bulk carrier: Once Ain Al Thawarah joins, Asyad’s owned dry-bulk fleet will stand at 18 vessels with more than 3 mn dwt of capacity, spanning VLOCs, Newcastlemaxes, baby-Capesizes, Kamsarmaxes, and Ultramaxes. The acquisition sits within the company’s USD 2.3-2.6 bn fleet renewal push through 2029, which is targeting growth in crude, dry bulk, and gas, alongside the gradual shedding of older tonnage.

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