More Qatari LNG is getting through Hormuz, but QatarEnergy isn't ready to promise deliveries

Qatar still doesn’t trust Hormuz, even as more of its LNG slips through. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure to buyers across Asia and Europe despite a pickup in Qatar-linked tanker traffic, Bloomberg reports. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and at least one Indian buyer won't receive cargoes until November, and shipments to Italy's Edison are suspended until early December.

REMEMBER- Qatar had extended force majeure on Italy’s energy firm Edison LNG deliveries until early November earlier this month.

A trickle, not a thaw: No Qatar-linked crossings were visible in August, but at least five loaded vessels have turned up outside the Gulf since mid-September, Reuters reports, citing Kpler data. The latest, GasLog Skagen, surfaced off Sri Lanka on 27 September with a Ras Laffan cargo. Some ships still cross Hormuz with their transponders off, so the tracking data doesn't capture every crossing.

Why this matters: QatarEnergy's buyers now have to plan for winter without it. Extending force majeure into November and December tells customers that a few ships getting through doesn't change the schedule. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the other affected buyers will need to cover the gap elsewhere heading into peak demand. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure and canceled scheduled cargoes roughly once a month since the war began, so the crossings haven't yet changed how it runs its contracts.

Oil producers can reroute around Hormuz, but almost all Qatari LNG must pass through it. Ras Laffan has no export terminal outside the Gulf that could bypass the strait. The ship-to-ship workaround Qatar has found is narrow, since few tankers can handle LNG's chilled cargo. The other option is commercial: buying US cargoes and shipping them straight from American terminals to customers.

Hormuz isn't Qatar's only problem either: Two Ras Laffan trains have been offline since strikes hit the complex earlier this year, taking out roughly 12.8 mtpa, about 17% of Qatar's export capacity. QatarEnergy says repairs will take three to five years.