TODAY: Why a reopened Hormuz may still be closed to shipping + XRG locks in FID on Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas field

Good morning, wonderful people — a mixed bag today: shipping, energy, and aviation all pulling in different directions.

A reopened Hormuz won't be enough for shipowners while control of the strait stays unsettled. War-risk premiums are still running multiples above pre-war levels, and ins’ers keep saying the same thing: a ceasefire on paper isn't the same as a promise nobody's ship gets seized, mined, or shot at tomorrow.

Adnoc's investment arm just went upstream in Azerbaijan. XRG made the final investment decision on the next phase of the Absheron gas field, alongside Socar and TotalEnergies — part of a five-year plan to build XRG into a top-five global gas player, one Caspian field at a time.

And the UAE just suspended Iranian airline flights entirely. The move complies with Washington's latest sanctions deadline — one more Gulf state falling in line, and one more piece of Iran's shrinking air network gone.

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Another Iranian route cut off

The UAE has suspended all flights by Iranian airlines to and from the country until further notice, the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) said in a statement carried by state news agency Wam. The suspension took effect today, and the GCAA tied it directly to the US ban on Iranian airlines using airports around the world. The US Treasury’s threat of secondary sanctions on any airport or company servicing Iranian carriers kicked in on Wednesday.

The UAE isn’t alone: Last week, Oman and Azerbaijan barred Iranian airlines, Iraq banned flights to Baghdad, and Georgia suspended flights to Tbilisi, the Financial Times reports. Mahan Air has also dropped its Istanbul, Ankara, and Muscat routes. Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization says it is talking to Oman and Iraq about keeping some flights running, including sending Baghdad-bound flights to the pilgrimage city of Najaf instead. Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei has warned that countries shutting out Iranian flights could face reciprocal restrictions.

Why it matters: Flights were one of the last threads left after Abu Dhabi halted all trade, commercial exchange, and financial transactions with Iran in August. The central bank tightened the financial side further on Wednesday, sanctioning Bank Melli’s UAE branches over money laundering and terror financing violations.

More routes, more redundancy

Aramco is eyeing more ways out of the Gulf. The Saudi oil giant is studying a fourth and fifth crude-export corridor — on top of the three it already uses — as it looks to build more redundancy into its export system, CEO Amin Nasser told Nikkei Asia. Engineering and feasibility work is already underway, he said, without disclosing where the new routes would run or when they could come online. He also warned the disruption “is not really getting better,” with Aramco only supplying term-contract buyers and pumping well below pre-war levels.

Two of the three existing routes hang on one pipeline. The first runs through Hormuz, with crude loading at Ras Tanura and crossing on shuttle tankers for ship-to-ship transfer outside the Gulf. The other two start with the 7 mn bbl / d East-West pipeline to Yanbu, which restarted at reduced rates last week after being knocked offline by drone strikes. From there, cargoes either sail south through Bab Al Mandab or go north through Egypt’s 2.5 mn bbl / d Sumed pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean — the only route that avoids both chokepoints. A full restart for the pipeline is still six to eight weeks out.

More storage closer to buyers: Aramco is also looking to expand its crude storage overseas, including in Japan, as another buffer against disruptions. The company holds 5.3 mn barrels of crude at Knoc’s Ulsan facilities in South Korea under a five-year storage agreement, which it expanded in June, while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have separately asked Tokyo to expand their Japan-based stockpiles roughly tenfold from 8 mn barrels. Aramco is also among the companies weighing bonded storage at Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

The Max wait is over

) Turkish Airlines has signed the Boeing 737 Max order it first floated two years ago. The firm order covers 100 737-8s — with options for 50 more and the right to swap in the larger 737-10 — marking the carrier’s biggest-ever Boeing single-aisle order, according to a press release. Deliveries are due between 2033 and 2037, according to a separate announcement.

REMEMBER- The Max order completes the other half of Turkish Airlines’ Boeing buying spree. The carrier finalized an order last year for up to 75 787 Dreamliners, slated for delivery between 2029 and 2034. Together, the two agreements cover up to 225 Boeing jets, with the Dreamliners feeding its long-haul expansion and the Maxes aimed at its short- and medium-haul network.

Market watch

Oil prices rose more than 1% this morning after US president Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 1.32 to USD 105.64 / bbl by 00.36 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.70 to USD 93.11 / bbl.

The Baltic Index gives back some gains: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 1.3% to 3,426 points on Friday. The capesize index dropped 2.6% to 5,784 points, while the panamax rose 1.1% to 2,407 points. The smaller supramax edged up 0.2% to 1,786 points.

The Drewry World Container Index edged down 1% at USD 4,468 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. Transpacific rates held firm — Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 2% and Shanghai-New York was unchanged. Asia-Europe continued to weaken, with Shanghai-Genoa down 5% and Shanghai-Rotterdam down 4%. The East-West container freight market remains uncertain as carriers match capacity against uneven demand and continued operational disruptions, with Middle East tensions still a key risk. Suez Canal transits are picking up, although Red Sea security concerns continue to cloud the pace of the resort. Panama Canal capacity also remains constrained, while labor disruptions in Germany and low Rhine water levels are adding pressure to European supply chains.

The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we'll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt's claim to be the region's energy hub still holds.

Issue I lands Wednesday, 30 September, and looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, how the country went from gas exporter to importer in a decade, and what keeping the lights on actually cost us.

Coming straight to your inbox — Wednesday, 30 September.

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