TODAY: Can Saudi Arabia, Turkey pull off a rail link to Europe via Jordan + Syria?

Good morning, wonderful people. The US-Iran peace agreement is now in effect — and the whole region can exhale. All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz for early signs that the supply chain disruption is finally unwinding.

This morning's issue is Saudi-heavy, and for good reason. The big story: Riyadh and Ankara want to lay rail through Jordan and Syria — goods, oil, gas, passengers, all the way to Europe in three to four years. The Gulf's other heavyweights could eventually plug in. The catch, of course, is the map: a route that runs through postwar Syria is a route that depends on postwar Syria holding together.

Elsewhere in the Kingdom: SAL is planting a flag in Amsterdam, and Saudi Arabia is quietly locking in more crude storage in South Korea's strategic reserve.

The UAE, meanwhile, is done relying on luck. Zero-reliance on the Strait is now the stated goal — Eastern harbors, pipelines, road and rail, all in feasibility. Plus: DP World is making its first move back into the US in two decades.

DP World, meet Texas

DP World is in exclusive talks to operate a new container terminal at the Port of Corpus Christi in Texas, which would be its first US container-port operation in 20 years, with the Dubai-based ports giant set to design and build the facility if the agreement is finalized, Bloomberg reports, citing a press release.

Why wasn’t DP World in the US to begin with? DP World was forced out of US ports in 2006 after security concerns were raised by lawmakers. It has maintained logistics operations in Pennsylvania and North Carolina since, with Vancouver as its main North American cargo gateway via rail to Chicago and inland markets — but no container terminals on US soil.

Corpus Christi gives DP World a Gulf Coast container play as nearshoring reshapes US trade flows. The Texas port handles more overall tonnage than most US peers, though mainly on energy, chemicals, and bulk cargo rather than containers. DP World says the new terminal would help it capture rising container demand as manufacturers diversify supply chains away from Asia — a trend that has made Gulf Coast capacity a strategic priority.

Never again

The UAE is zeroing in on maintaining zero reliance on Hormuz — peace agreement or not. Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg the UAE is working on a new harbor to sit alongside the Eastern ports of Dibba, Fujairah, and Khor Fakkan, along with new pipelines and wider rail and road networks to eliminate its dependence on the strait.

What we already know: Adnoc is fast-tracking a second pipeline to double the amount of crude via Fujairah by 2027, building on the Habshan-Fujairah line that has been the backbone of the UAE’s Hormuz bypass during the war. Borouge and AD Ports are also exploring building an alternative export hub for petrochemical shipments on the east coast, centered around Fujairah and other eastern port facilities.

What’s new: The UAE is now planning a third petroleum pipeline, Al Zeyoudi said, as well as investing in infrastructure like the new harbor and rail and road projects. The projects are still in their planning phase, with feasibility studies underway, but the main goal is “having zero Hormuz dependency,” as Al Zeyoudi puts it.

All clear (maybe)

Qatar is moving NG tankers back toward the Gulf — five empty Qatar-owned vessels heading to Ras Laffan after idling elsewhere, with four more Qatar-linked tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman that could attempt a Hormuz passage into the Persian Gulf.

A full Qatari return could help ease the global LNG supply crunch: European and Asian prices are still above pre-war levels, and Qatar is the market's biggest swing supplier. Qatar has sent a limited number of cargoes to Asian buyers by masking tanker locations, but deliveries have stayed well below normal.

Iran's tankers are moving too: Four Iran-linked vessels — including two supertankers capable of hauling 2 mn barrels each — switched on their transponders and sailed out of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman ahead of the agreement signing, Bloomberg reports. At least three ships waiting at Chabahar port had also left their positions.

Market watch

Oil prices slid over USD 1 this morning as a US-Iran accord improved the supply outlook, with Hormuz set to reopen and Iranian exports poised to return, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures slipped USD 1.64 to trade at USD 77.91 / bbl by 04.27 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell USD 2.34 to USD 74.99 / bbl.

The Baltic Index slips further: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.6% to 2,653 points on Wednesday. The capesize index was down 0.9% to 3,877 points, while the panamax index slipped 43 points to 2,223 points. The smaller supramax index inched up 1.2% at 1,705 points.

Data point

96.7k cbm — that’s how much marine fuel was sold in Fujairah in May, a record low amid continued disruption to Gulf shipping routes, Reuters reports, citing Fujairah Oil Industry Zone data published by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Low-sulphur marine fuel saw the steepest decline, tumbling 27% m-o-m to 65k cbm, while high-sulphur bunkers saw a 15% drop to 31.6k cbm, giving it a larger slice of the market.

The May numbers land just as Hormuz is notionally reopening — but don’t expect a quick snapback at Fujairah. Shipowners say they will wait until the agreement is “material” and visible inside the strait before resuming crossings, and mine-clearing alone could take approximately 40-50 days. Even then, tankers are likely to move first, with container lines last — meaning the vessels that bunker at Fujairah in the highest volumes will be slowest to return.

PSA

CMA CGM is resetting India-Europe freight rates from 1 July — applying new freight rates on dry cargo from Northwest India, Southeast India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka to North Europe, the Mediterranean, and North Africa. North Europe and Med rates are set at USD 5k per 20- or 40-ft container; North Africa at USD 6k.

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