Did Europe really dodge the jet fuel crisis?

Europe’s gonna keep flying — at a price: European airlines and refiners are growing more confident that the continent can avoid outright jet fuel shortages this summer, after refiners boosted kerosene yields, importers secured replacement cargoes from alternative suppliers, and governments tapped strategic reserves.

Price signals were strong enough to reroute global fuel flows: Jet fuel prices in Northern Europe climbed to a record USD 1.9k per ton in early April before easing to around USD 1.3-1.4k per ton — still roughly 60% above pre-war levels.

A reshaped network is now helping stabilize the market: Europe has sharply increased jet fuel inflows from the US and Nigeria, while stronger domestic refinery output and inventory drawdowns have helped offset the loss of Middle Eastern Gulf supplies. The US has emerged as the main relief valve for replacement barrels, with Nigeria and Norway also becoming key suppliers alongside broader West African flows that are helping close the gap.

Is Europe buying time or solving the problem?

Europe’s refiners are stretching every barrel: Spain’s Repsol has raised jet fuel production for the coming months by 20-25% y-o-y by reconfiguring its refineries to increase kerosene yields, while Portugal’s Galp is also maximizing output.

But higher output doesn’t remove Europe’s structural exposure. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub — the key supply center for northwest Europe — still sources roughly half of its jet fuel imports through Hormuz-linked flows, after inventories had already fallen to a six-year low by mid-April.

Strategic reserves have also bought time, not immunity. The International Energy Agency warned in April that Europe had “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel cover left and noted in mid-May that commercial inventories were depleting rapidly, even after strategic reserve releases added 2.5 mn bbl / d to the market.

Our take: The immediate shortage risk has eased, but the real test is whether Europe’s replacement supply system can hold through peak summer travel demand if Middle Eastern disruptions persist.

Why it matters

Airlines may have enough fuel to fly, but not at yesterday’s economics. Ryanair has signaled that Europe is now better stocked thanks to shipments from West Africa, Norway, and the Americas, while cautioning that fuel remains a cost problem and that sustained high prices could push unit costs higher despite hedging. EasyJet has also flagged an additional GBP 200 mn in summer fuel costs, with spot prices far above its normal levels.

Gulf supply remains the hardest gap to replace. Europe can source more jet fuel from a broader range of suppliers, but those alternative flows still only partially fill a Gulf-sized hole in the market. Around half of Europe’s jet fuel imports typically come from the Middle East, with that share recently climbing to nearly 75% of total EU jet fuel imports.