Can Europe keep flying smoothly if Gulf jet flows stay strained?

Jet fuel is where Europe might feel the supply strain first. The European Commission is drafting measures to manage disruptions and line up alternative supply across member states, as the Hormuz disruption squeezes the bloc’s most exposed refined product stream. The commission has made clear jet fuel availability a priority — even without an EU-wide shortage.

Why Brussels is acting now

The warning signs are already flashing: The International Air Transport Association said last week that Europe could begin seeing flight cancellations by the end of May due to fuel shortages if the squeeze persists. Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp jet fuel inventories dropped to roughly 597k tons in the week to 15 April — the lowest since April 2020 — while prices remain elevated near USD 175 / bbl.

“In my view there is no imminent risk for Europe to run out of jet fuel, but there might be a need for coordination and sharing of jet fuel reserves between countries if Hormuz closes and supply from other suppliers does not cover for Europe’s need of jet fuel," Hans Jørgen Elnaes, aviation analyst, tells EnterpriseAM.

The numbers explain why Brussels is still moving early. “Airlines in Europe have in 2026 a daily need for 1.6 mn barrels of jet fuel. 500k barrels of this is imported; 75% from the Middle East and 125k barrels from USA,” Elnaes says.

The hit is uneven

The first signs of strain are emerging in the Netherlands: Dutch officials say kerosene supply is running at about 78% normal levels because of disrupted imports, although there is no immediate EU-wide shortage.

That pressure is already feeding into aviation. KLM said last week it would cancel 160 flights (90 return services) from Amsterdam Schiphol over the coming month, as higher jet fuel costs make a small number of European flights uneconomic. The cut affects less than 1% of its European flights, but the signal is clear enough.

Elsewhere, the problem has been more about moving fuel than finding it. “There have been some issues with logistics in Italy, where jet fuel suppliers were not able to deliver the quantity of jet fuel as ordered to some airports, due to temporary logistics problems, not due to Italy running low on jet fuel," Elnaes adds.

Spain and Portugal are taking a different view: Madrid has announced its intention to participate in any EU fuel-sharing plan, backed by its strong refining capacity. Some refineries have lifted kerosene output by 60% — and stockpiles are at peak levels ahead of summer.

Lisbon has sounded similarly calm, with officials saying the airport expects no shortages. Energy firm Galp Energia is able to lean on Brazilian crude and local refining at Sines refinery while maintaining enough production, stockpiles, and imports to cover demand.

Jet fuel was one of the first cracks globally

The crunch didn’t start as a Europe-only supply scare: Jet fuel emerged early in the conflict as one of the first refined products to show visible strain. Up to 30% of Europe’s jet fuel supply transits through Hormuz — and tighter regional flows were already amplifying the impact on aviation fuel.

Jet fuel lagged early because the shock hit refined products faster than crude. Refining bottlenecks, lower run rates, and inventory drawdowns can cushion the system for a while, but they do not resolve a product mismatch. Jet fuel stands out because aviation absorbs the pain early through fares and route economics — even if that adjustment is too small to rebalance the wider market on its own.

The next move is diversification

Europe’s jet fuel problem still begins in the Gulf as around half of its imports typically come from the Middle East, with that share recently rising to nearly 75% of EU jet fuel imports.

The EU has flagged the importance of diversifying away from Middle Eastern jet fuel — with Spain already tapping supply from the Americas and North Africa. Kpler and LSEG data show rising jet fuel inflows into Europe from the US and Nigeria.

US supply can help — with limits. “Refineries in America producing jet fuel can be a solution both in the short- and longer-term perspective. Though imports from the USA have already increased, in the USA the jet fuel grade produced is mainly Jet A, while in Europe, Jet A1 is widely used. Jet A has freezing point minus 40 degrees Celsius, while Jet A1 is minus 47 degrees Celsius,” Elnaes adds

The next answer could be SAF: “In the medium to longer term Europe may also enforce a strategy to boost production of various types of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), but SAF is 3-5x more expensive than Jet A1, under normal circumstances. But with spot price on Jet A1 peaking around USD 2k per ton in some markets, the price difference between jet fuel and SAF has almost been zeroed out. I am pretty sure Europe in the medium to long term will have a focus on being less dependent on importing jet fuel,” Elnaes says.