United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby floated a potential merger with American Airlines earlier this year to US President Donald Trump, but no formal talks have been confirmed yet for what would combine the two largest airlines in the world by available capacity in 2025. Both carriers’ shares climbed in premarket trading on Tuesday after the merger news broke — with American up around 4% and United up about 2%.

Good idea? Each of the four largest US airlines — American Airlines, Delta, Southwest, and United — already holds roughly 17% of domestic traffic, and a United-American merger would tighten that structure even further. However, regulators have argued the tie-up likely won’t clear regulatory hurdles despite management claims of consumer benefit.

Why it matters

Long-haul grab? Kirby’s pitch was built around international scale — arguing that a combined United-American could compete more effectively in long-haul markets, where foreign carriers still control seat capacity to and from the US despite the majority of passengers being US citizens.

“United is already stronger than American on long-haul international flying,” Henry Harteveldt, president and travel industry analyst at Atmosphere Research Group, tells EnterpriseAM. He adds that American Airlines’ clearest strength is Latin America rather than broader intercontinental reach — which means a merger would look less like a route-building necessity and more like an agreement that would trim overlapping networks while adding alliance complications abroad.

Why now? It could be a defensive move. American Airlines is still trying to close the performance gap with United and Delta, while United is leaning harder into the markets where that gap shows most clearly. United has held the upper hand at Chicago O’Hare Airport, while American allowed the airport’s share of its own network to slip after the pandemic as it focused more heavily on Dallas.

Is this merger possible?

It could choke capacity: “A merged United-American would hold about 40% of US domestic capacity — making the agreement difficult to approve without steep concessions that could strip out that much of its financial upside,” Harteveldt argues.

Bad for consumers? “Whenever you have a merger in any industry, you have fewer players competing. You reduce competition, and the customers end up paying more,” Harteveldt tells us. The idea of having a tie-up between two of the four dominant US carriers would mean less consumer choice and fewer low-fare seats in an already highly concentrated market, he adds.

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