Good morning, wonderful people. Trump’s early-morning address suggested the US is “very close” to ending the war with Iran, but stopped short of any major announcement like a ceasefire or ground invasion.

Here’s what you need to know: Trump shifted his tone regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, downplaying Washington’s role. Instead, he said, the operation should be led by countries that — unlike the US — rely heavily on the strait for oil imports, adding that the waterway will “open up naturally” after the war ends. This runs counter to Trump’s call on Nato allies to help Washington revive traffic in the waterway last month.

Trump also reiterated his timeline of continuing strikes on Iran for the next two to three weeks, threatening to target its energy infrastructure if “there’s no [agreement].” He also thanked US allies in the region — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE — and vowed that Washington would “not let them get hurt.”

…which leads us to our top story of the day: Regional disruptions are reshaping bunker markets, with operators increasingly skipping cargo to reposition fuel where it’s needed — as access, not supply, becomes the key constraint.

Watch this space

TRADE — Iraq exports fuel oil overland: Iraq’s Somo finalized contracts to supply around 650k metric tons of fuel oil a month from April to June via overland shipments through Syria as an alternative to Hormuz. The move lines up with the reopening of the Al Waleed crossings on the Iraqi-Syrian border. Iraqi customs said the first oil trucks had already crossed into Syria, while local Iraqi officials said more than 100 tankers moved through on the first day.

Why it matters: Iraq normally ships fuel oil out of Khor Al Zubair by sea, but officials say the Hormuz disruption has left storage tanks full and forced output cuts, with production at the main southern oilfields down by about 80% to around 800k bbl / d — making this move a lifeline for Baghdad’s oil production, even if it’s more costly.

LNG — Oman’s first LNG shipments to Germany are underway, with German state-owned Sefe indicating the cargoes are moving without disruption, for now. The shipments are the first under the Oman LNG-Sefe supply agreement, which covers 0.4 mtpa between 2026 and 2029.

Why it matters: This is part of Germany’s LNG diversification push, but the timing matters more now because Qatar is no longer a dependable Gulf fallback.

Market watch

Oil prices rose USD 5 this morning after US President Donald Trump said strikes on Iran would continue with no clear end — heightening supply fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 6.33 to trade at USD 107.49 / bbl by 04.07 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped USD 5.28 to USD 105.40 / bbl.

The Baltic Index rebounded: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 1.8% to 2,030 points on Wednesday, snapping a two-day decline. The capesize climbed 2.6% to 3,023 points, while the panamax index edged up 0.8% to 1,758. The smaller supramax gained 0.6% to 1,209 points.

Aramco raised April’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) official selling prices sharply — with propane up by USD 205 to USD 750 per ton and butane up by USD 260 to USD 800 per ton, Reuters reports, citing traders.

Is this about demand? Or is supply getting hit hard? Aramco’s Juaymah terminal outage last month cut shipments to Asia in March, right when the market needed them, while a third of global seaborne LPG supply was cut off due to Hormuz constraints and damaged capacity.

Data point

4.6 mn tons — that’s how much freight Syria moved in 1Q, averaging around 51.5k tons a day — according to our own calculations — with cross-border cargo making up the bulk at 3.8 mn tons. The country’s domestic transport accounted for over 855k tons moved between Syrian provinces.

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