Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s another morning where the regional war is redrawing the energy map — one chokepoint at a time. Today, we’re zeroing in on a pressure point that doesn’t need a shot fired to move markets: the Red Sea. The Houthis are back — and with them, Bab Al Mandab as a live logistical risk.

Plus: We take a look at how oil flows are fragmenting and what that means for a currency system where the greenback is no longer uncontested.

The big logistics story abroad

The regional war dominates global headlines, again: US President Donald Trump told aides he is “willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,” the Wall Street Journal reports. Trying to open up Hormuz would extend the war beyond his timeline, according to officials cited by the news outlet. Trump’s comments came shortly after he reiterated his threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if it does not open the strait.

From the Dept. of Ongoing Disruptions

Iranian forces struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored at Dubai Port, resulting in a fire aboard the vessel, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement from the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. The strike may have triggered an oil spill in the area, the Kuwaiti oil giant said. No injuries were reported, and Dubai authorities have managed to extinguish the resulting fire.

Projectiles also landed close to a Greek-owned container ship near Ras Tanura, Reuters reports, citing maritime risk management outfit Vanguard. The Liberian-flagged Express Rome reported two such incidents occurring one hour apart, and that its crew was unharmed. Although no group claimed responsibility for the incident, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard previously claimed to have attacked the Express Rome while crossing the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month.

Watch this space

AVIATION — Emirates’ biggest edge right now may be the price of staying insured. Dubai’s flag carrier Emirates has secured war-risk cover for about USD 100k a week for its entire fleet flying to and from Dubai — in contrast with non-Gulf airlines, which have been quoted USD 70k-150k per flight into the region. The policy essentially covers Emirates for the first USD 2 bn of losses on its fleet, ins. providers said.

Why it matters: Non-Gulf carriers are being priced on a flight-by-flight basis, with each rotation into the region carrying its own war-risk premium. Emirates — by contrast — operates under a large, fleet-wide ins. structure, allowing insurers to assess risks across its network rather than on a per-flight basis — giving it a more stable and significantly lower cost base.

Gulf carriers on different terms: Airlines based in the Gulf are generally getting more flexible rates than foreign rivals with aircraft based elsewhere, aided by operating hundreds of daily flights through regional airspace and by closer coordination with airports and local authorities.

Other carriers are back in the air too: Etihad is operating from Abu Dhabi, Air Arabia from Sharjah, and Qatar Airways is running a limited service from Doha — but Emirates remains the largest by a wide margin, with more flights in the system than Etihad and Qatar combined.

SHIPPING — Tanger Med is getting ready for the spillover from war in the Middle East. Morocco’s Tanger Med port is preparing for higher vessel traffic as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, with Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM already shifting routes. The port’s authority says the immediate focus is capacity management and avoiding congestion.

The pressure has not fully landed yet: Tanger Med management expects the real impact on cargo flows to only show up by mid-to-late April, with Cape diversions adding roughly 10-14 days to transit times into the Moroccan hub.

Risk management test? The port handled 11.1 mn containers in 2025, up 8.4% y-o-y, reinforcing its position ahead of competing Mediterranean hubs, with route connections to roughly 180 ports globally.

TRADE — Will Aswan soon cement itself as Egypt’s export gateway to Africa? The Upper Egyptian city is looking to cluster industrial and commercial projects within dedicated logistics zones as part of a plan to position itself as a strategic gateway to the wider continent, Aswan Governor Amr Lashin said on Sunday at an event attended by EnterpriseAM. To get private players on board, the state is developing a set of incentives to encourage exports to the African Continental Freetrade Area.

TRANSPORT — Licensed transporters can temporarily move third-party goods: Saudi Arabia’s Transport General Authority has granted licensed commercial transport players the green light to move goods for third parties until 25 September, it said in a statement. To qualify, a vehicle must be registered for public transport, with all its operations recorded via the Logisti platform to maintain transparency and regulatory compliance.

Market watch

Oil prices held steady this morning as investors weighed the potential for conflict resolution against supply risks, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures for May gained USD 0.18 to trade at USD 112.96 / bbl by 04.38 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined USD 0.25 to USD 102.63 / bbl.

The Baltic Index declines once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.7% to 2,017 points on Monday. The capesize declined 0.9% to 3,004 points, while the panamax index slipped 0.8% to 1,742. The smaller supramax shed 3 points to reach 1,203 points.

PSA

Yang Ming reroutes GS2 as Hormuz risk deepens: Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming is diverting incoming GS2 vessels from their original rotations and keeping them on standby near the Middle East instead of calling at Indian ports or discharging cargo. The line says normal operations will resume when conditions stabilize, warning that the disruption could trigger additional freight, terminal handling, reshipment, and related charges for shippers under the bill of lading terms.

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