Is there enough fuel to fly? Jet fuel prices have doubled in recent weeks as the closure of Hormuz cuts a significant chunk of global supply, as Kuwait and the UAE are among the top three global exporters of jet fuel. Flight ticket prices have already started rising, but the real shock may be yet to come, with some airlines warning that jet fuel reserves at some airports could run out in a matter of weeks.

The imbalance is already clear: African carriers are already carrying a heavier fuel burden than global peers, and the war has exposed how quickly jet fuel supply chains can tighten once regional flows come under pressure. For Egypt, the question is no longer just about costs, but whether operations can be sustained if the squeeze drags on.

Egypt’s fuel buffer: Resilience or illusion?

So far jet fuel reserves in Egypt are at safe levels, government officials tell EnterpriseAM. They relayed that there were no issues in terms of aviation fuel shortages.

But how deep does that buffer really run? Industry insiders have their worries. “Egypt is not well protected in a prolonged disruption because it relies on imported oil,” warns Avaero Capital Partners Principal Managing Partner Sindy Foster in comments to EnterpriseAM. This reliance in times of stress becomes an issue because flows may not always be consistently available, which does not work well with the aviation industry’s need for “high-volume, continuous, and reliably financed supply,” she explained.

The real risk: financial sustainability

Availability is only half of the story: A prolonged disruption would not only test the availability of fuel, but also whether airlines can continue securing and paying for jet fuel at scale. For Egypt, “the real economic risk is sustainability. Over time, this becomes a question of whether airlines can secure and pay for fuel at scale, in foreign currency, without eroding already thin margins,” Foster adds.

Where the pressure lands first

The first fault line is fares and margins: Jet fuel now accounts for 30% to 40% of African airline operating costs, compared to the global average of 20% to 25% — and at some low-cost carriers, it is reaching 50% to 55% of direct operating costs.

Fuel stress will push network decisions: “For African and Egyptian carriers, the immediate pressure from higher fuel costs is as much about network economics as it is about pricing — longer routings and fuel burn force airlines to rethink which city pairs remain viable,” Richard Maslen, head of analysis at the Center for Aviation, told EnterpriseAM.

“Fares will inevitably rise, but the perishable nature of a seat means pricing can only stretch so far,” Maslen adds, “so airlines are more likely to balance modest fare increases with tighter capacity discipline, fuel surcharges, and refined yield management rather than relying on price alone.”

The next strain will show up in operations: “What fuel pressure does is tighten an already stressed system. If supply becomes less reliable, airlines cannot operate schedules exactly as planned. That leads to delays, payload restrictions, route adjustments, and selective cancellations, particularly on weaker routes,” Foster notes.

A fuel shock would turn Egypt’s aviation market into a hierarchy test. “A prolonged jet fuel squeeze therefore feeds directly into utilization and network design — marginal routes are trimmed, frequencies adjusted, and aircraft redeployed to stronger flows,” Maslen said. This could leave lower-cost and smaller carriers more exposed early as their model depends on tight margins and high utilization, so they have far less room to absorb fuel disruption or inefficiency.

Do flag carriers hold up better? Airlines like EgyptAir may buy more time, but it doesn’t change the math of a fuel strain. “It pressures everyone and there are no real winners in a fuel supply squeeze — even a state-backed airline still faces fuel access constraints, higher costs, foreign currency pressure, and demand risk,” Foster said

No one is spared: The fuel crunch would hit all airlines — with some carriers likely holding up longer than others, the dominant dynamic is market-wide margin compression rather than differentiation, driven by higher fuel costs, foreign-currency pressures, and demand risk, Foster argues.

Scrambling for alternatives

Shortages are understandably increasing attention on planned sustainable aviation fuel projects, which the government is now trying to accelerate by fast-tracking the timelines for some of the projects, another government official told us. To feed these planned projects, a set of incentives to help make used cooking oil collection projects more financially viable and collect 1 mn tons annually is being prepared, Waste Management Regulatory Authority Chairman Yasser Abdullah tells us.

A reshaped map if the crisis drags on

If the regional war continues, African carriers and hubs could find room to capture traffic flows that have historically bypassed the continent, Maslen added. Addis Ababa is already well placed to deepen its role as a pan-African gateway, while Kigali could become more relevant over time as new infrastructure comes online — which means the Iran crisis could end up reshaping traffic flows, not just fuel bills, he notes.

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