While Hormuz remains largely closed, Tehran has begun hand-picking which vessels — and which countries — can pass. Iran is shifting from a total blockade of Hormuz to a mode of selective transit, so let’s unpack who’s going through the strait and who’s still on the outs.

What’s changed?

Passages have plummeted by 96% — from 135 ships per day to a mere handful — driving oil to USD 119 per barrel since the de facto closure on 28 February. By forcing ships closer to its coast and between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, Iran is using visual identification in lieu of radar stations knocked out by US strikes. However, Iran’s total blockade has begun to show signs of softening into a tiered system.

Three more vessels were hit while we were away: A bulk carrier was struck some 15 nm north of the UAE’s Sharjah on Sunday, while another ship was hit some 11 nm east of Fakkan on Wednesday, causing a fire on board. A third ship was hit some 4 nm east of Qatar’s Ras Laffan on Thursday. All crew members in the three incidents were reported safe.

The flow: Who’s getting through?

Who’s in Iran’s good books so far? Vessels from India, Pakistan, and Greece, alongside Iran's own oil fleet, have been tracked taking unusual routes around Larak Island to navigate the strait. At least nine Chinese Cosco-linked tankers are currently amassing north of Abu Dhabi, likely awaiting cleared passage given Beijing’s role as the primary buyer of Iranian oil.

The list could grow: Iran’s Foreign Minister has signaled readiness to let Japanese-related vessels pass following direct talks with Tokyo.

The carve-outs

The Sinopec pivot: Despite the US Treasury issuing a 30-day waiver for 140 mn barrels of Iranian oil already at sea, Sinopec is evaluating risks and opting out, citing payment complications and the aging shadow fleet as concerns. The refiner will slash runs by 5% this month due to the energy fallout.

Securing national interests: To shore up domestic food security against 47.5% inflation, Tehran has allowed 11 bulk carriers –– mostly Greek-managed –– to deliver grain and soybeans to the port of Imam Khomeini before exiting via Iranian territorial waters.

The red lines

Despite the selective openings, enemy-linked vessels remain strictly barred, specifically those connected to the US and Israel. Following a 48-hour ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to fully open the strait, Tehran has threatened to completely close the waterway and continue to target regional power plants if US and Israeli aggression continues.

Iran is soft launching a new pay-to-play model: For those not on the enemy list, passage now could carry a steep USD 2 mn transit fee per vessel — a move Iranian lawmakers say reflects a new concept of sovereignty for Iran.

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