If the war drags on, the next shocks won’t be limited to oil and gas. Hormuz also carries a dense cluster of industrial commodities that feed global manufacturing, agriculture, metals markets, and consumer goods. For non-oil cargo, there is basically no “pipeline bypass,” meaning disruption converts into delayed or lost exports and higher delivery costs.

Where it breaks: “There are vulnerabilities in aviation and in jet fuel, shipping fuel, in oil — particularly refined products in Asia — gas, fertilizers, aluminium, methanol, and helium chips. It will take time for the full impact of these to play out, depending how long the crisis continues. Some will be absorbed in higher costs and reallocation to higher-value uses, without obvious supply chain disruptions,” CEO of Dubai-based energy consultancy Qamar Energy Robin Mills tells EnterpriseAM.

Aluminium: The first supply chain to tighten

First up: aluminum — one of the Gulf’s most exposed non-oil industries: The region hosts some of the world’s largest aluminum smelters, exporting some 9% global supply. Major producers include Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), Aluminium Bahrain, and Qatalum.

Why aluminium sits at the center of the disruption: Gulf smelters are material suppliers to Europe and Asia, but they often rely on imported alumina and bauxite feedstocks. When Hormuz traffic reroutes, the supply chain is squeezed on both ends — feedstock deliveries in and metal shipments out.

Trimming output: Aluminium Bahrain has begun a phased shutdown of three production lines after it suspended sales to customers earlier, aiming to conserve raw materials as outbound shipments of aluminium and inbound feedstock face delays. Qatar also began shutdowns, citing natural-gas shortages, while the UAE’s EGA said early in the conflict that it would rely on metal stockpiled in other regions to maintain supply.

Markets are starting to react: London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium stocks stood at some 445k tons last week. However, cancelled warrants rose from 9% to 40% in two weeks, with large withdrawals planned out of warehouses, including Mercuria planning to withdraw some 100k tons as supply is disrupted. Concerns about shortages pushed aluminium to a four-year high of USD 3.5k per ton.

Aluminum smelters will try to avoid shutdowns — even if it means operating at reduced rates because if they have to shut down completely, a restart will be a long and complex process, costing from USD 10-15 mn and can take up to a year, risking permanent damage to equipment.

Steel and copper: Industrial metals feel the strain

Steel supply chains are exposed in a similar way: Iron ore, pellets, and scrap imports feeding Gulf plants rely on the same shipping lanes now under pressure.

Why the impact is limited for now: Steel is heavy and stockable, which buys time — but the region’s gas-based direct reduced iron market, exported as hot-briquetted iron, is exposed to shipping and energy shocks.

Copper faces a different type of disruption: Gulf manufacturers rely on imported copper cathodes, with some 40k tons entering the UAE each month through hubs like Jebel Ali. Freight risk premiums and war risk costs have surged as vessels avoid the chokepoint, forcing cargo onto longer routes and delaying deliveries.

Why the risk is slightly indirect: The metal isn’t mined in the Gulf — so the war doesn’t remove it from the global market the way it could with oil, gas, or aluminum — however, copper feeds power grids, construction, desalination plants, and renewable projects, leading to tight feedstock supplies and higher input costs as electrification and megaprojects accelerate.

Petrochem and plastics: Export routes under pressure

Petrochemicals and plastics are another casualty of chokepoint risk: The Gulf exports some 76 mn tons of petrochemicals — polyethylene, polypropylene, methanol, and other chemical feedstocks that underpin packaging, construction materials, and manufacturing supply chains.

Why it matters: Most shipments rely on container and chemical tanker routes that are dependent on Hormuz before reaching Asia and Europe. The GCC exports more than half its chemical output valued at USD 52 bn annually and trades with some 90 countries.

Where the disruption shows up first: Polymer supply chains are highly sensitive to shipping delays. When routes stretch or vessels disappear from the market, downstream industries — packaging manufacturers, medical suppliers, and construction firms — can begin to feel shortages within weeks.

Semiconductors: Ripple effects reach tech supply chains

Semiconductors may look like a tech story — but their supply chain runs through the same shipping lanes now under pressure. Semiconductor manufacturing depends on a steady flow of industrial gases and specialty materials, including helium used in chip fabrication and cooling systems. Qatar accounts for about 38% of the global helium supply.

Energy is the second pressure point: Semiconductor fabs are among the most electricity-intensive industrial facilities, and rising power costs driven by the war are already increasing operating expenses across the industry.

Demand could also shift: Defense spending will likely push demand higher for specialized semiconductors used in drones, surveillance systems, and military hardware.

Why it matters: Semiconductor supply chains were already under pressure from geopolitical rivalry and export controls, but a shipping choke point adds another layer of risk.

Pharma: Medical logistics disrupted

Pharma is another exposed supply chain: Cancer treatments and other refrigerated medicines are among the most exposed cargoes because they rely on tightly controlled cold-chain logistics.

The Gulf could soon be off the meds: Stocks of short shelf-life medicines typically last around three months, with some suppliers warning customers that inventories could run low within four to six weeks if transport disruptions continue.

Managing the disruption: Healthcare cargo is being flown into Saudi Arabia and Oman and then moved overland to final destinations, but the shifting airspace restrictions mean transport plans can change daily, forcing constant rework of routes.

And — similar to all we mentioned above — the longer routes are raising costs and stretching delivery time: Additional fuel consumption and the use of dry ice to maintain refrigeration during transit are pushing fees higher.

!_SubHed_ Domino effect: Commodity disruptions rarely stay contained

Fertilizers echo loudly: Inputs such as ammonia, urea, and sulfur feed directly into global food production, meaning supply shocks can quickly translate into higher crop costs and food inflation.

Metals are often where the industrial ripple effects appear next: Aluminum (outside the Gulf) and copper (in the Gulf) sit at the core of construction, power grids, transport equipment, and renewables, meaning tighter supply raises costs across everything from building projects to electrical networks.

Then comes petrochemicals and plastics: Packaging, medical supplies, consumer products, and construction materials all depend on polymer supply chains that rely heavily on Gulf exports.

Energy prices amplify the shock: Every escalation that pushes oil or gas prices higher raises costs across the whole supply chain — from shipping and manufacturing to electricity generation.

Over time, the impact spreads beyond commodities: What begins as freight delays and ins. premiums can evolve into tighter inventories, higher production costs, and ultimately rising prices for goods far beyond the energy sector.

What’s next? “There will certainly be more caution about relying on the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz for crucial materials. If the crisis abates, this will probably be resolved with some supply premia for non-Gulf supplies, some diversification and some more strategic stockpiling,” Mills adds.

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