Good morning, nice people. We’re in the final stretch of Ramadan now, with just a few more sleeps until a much-needed Eid break.

First up, finding a way around Hormuz: As the strait grows riskier, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the region’s bridge — linking Red Sea ports with inland routes feeding Gulf markets. This could turn Jeddah, Yanbu, and King Abdullah Port into a back door for cargo that would normally sail through Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Tehran is turning up the pressure: Iran is doubling down on its pledge to choke off Hormuz — and regional energy infrastructure is increasingly finding itself in the crosshairs.

The big logistics story abroad

The regional war is still getting ink from all international dailies — no surprise there — as Washington raises the stakes. US President Donald Trump has warned Nato that it faces a “very bad” future if the coalition does not help the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he told the Financial Times. Trump also signaled that he may delay his sit-down with China’s President Xi Jinping — scheduled for later this month — in efforts to pressure Beijing to act.

In other news from Washington, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK over the weekend to send warships to force open the Strait of Hormuz along with US naval forces. Meanwhile, Tehran claimed that the waterway is only shut to ships from “enemies.”

Meanwhile, officials quietly eased pressure on another front. The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded on tankers before 12 March to be delivered and offloaded, clearing cargoes stuck at sea after sanctions blocked their sale.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — DHL Express Europe plans to proceed with its investment plans in the Middle East despite the ongoing regional conflict, CEO Mike Parra told Sky News Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:43).

ICYMI- DHL group last year announced plans to deploy over EUR 500 mn in the region between 2024 and 2030, with a focus on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The strategy spans the group’s four divisions — DHL Express, DHL Global Forwarding, DHL Supply Chain, and DHL eCommerce. DHL Express is expected to upgrade its hub and gateway infrastructure while expanding air fleet capacity.

Disruptions from the conflict have meant DHL has had to tweak some of its routes, with airport closures and shipping delays prompting the company to reroute cargo by flying shipments to hubs in Asia, including Kazakhstan, before transporting them by road into the Middle East, Parra said.

LOST INVESTMENT? — Gulf producers watch bns of USD slip through Hormuz: The near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already erased an estimated USD 15 bn in energy revenues for Gulf exporters, according to Kpler data picked up by the Financial Times.

The breakdown: The chokepoint typically moves some USD 1.2 bn worth of crude, refined products, and LNG every day (based on last year’s prices and volumes), and currently, at least USD 10.7 bn worth of cargoes are still stranded inside, awaiting safe passage. Losses are piling up unevenly, however, with Saudi Arabia alone missing out on some USD 4.5 bn in revenues since the start of the war.

Why it matters: Although producers can cushion some of the shock through storage, price gains, or alternative routes, the disruption has exposed the fiscal dependence of Gulf economies on uninterrupted export flows.

TRADE — Egypt’s Agriculture Ministry is pushing to increase exports to Arab and Gulf markets, according to a statement. Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk pointed to a spike in demand from Gulf importers for specific Egyptian crops, primarily peppers, lettuce, and lemons, as regional buyers scramble to diversify their fresh food sources. However, the ministry argues that this export drive will not trigger domestic shortages, as the push only applies to surplus crops.

Why it matters: This is a clear crisis-to-advantage maneuver. As traditional trade routes in the Gulf and Red Sea face volatility, the government is leveraging Egypt’s land and maritime links to become the primary breadbasket for the GCC. If exporters can maintain the high technical and sanitary standards required by Gulf authorities under these quasi-emergency conditions, the sector could see a permanent expansion of its market share in the region long after the current tensions subside.

Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning as concerns over Middle East oil outweighs calls to secure Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 1.27 to trade at USD 104.41 / bbl by 04.00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 0.54 to USD 99.25 / bbl.

The Baltic Index adds another day of gains: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 2.8% to 2,028 points on Friday, advancing for a third straight session. The capesize climbed 5.8% to 2,880 points, and the panamax index edged up 0.2% to 1,838, while the smaller supramax index slipped 0.5% to 1,283 points.

The Drewry World Container Index increased by 8% to USD 2,123 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The rise is driven by an increase across transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially Shanghai-Rotterdam (19%) and Shanghai-Genoa (10%), as carriers tighten capacity and implement higher freight-all-kind (FAK) rates.

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