Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Hormuz must remain closed “to put pressure on the enemy,” in his first public statement broadcast on Iranian state television, CNBC Arabia reports. Khamenei also warned that all US military bases in the Middle East must be closed immediately, otherwise they will remain targets.

The oil pressure campaign is intensifying: Iran is doubling down on its promise to “not let a drop of oil leave the strait,” shifting between tanker harassment and a crackdown on regional storage infrastructure. The ramp-up in attacks appears to signal what IG Group analyst Tony Sycamore identified as a response to the IEA’s announcement of a massive reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices.

IN CONTEXT- Some 15 mn bpd crude and 5 mn bpd in oil production is being disrupted, characterized as the largest volumetric supply shock “in the history of the modern oil market,” Center on Global Energy Policy Senior Fellow Daniel Sternoff said, with around 31% of seaborne oil effectively paused.

The crackdown: Oil storage in the crosshairs

Back online, for now: Oil loading at Fujairah is back online after a drone-sparked fire briefly halted operations on Saturday, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. While the Fujairah media office confirmed civil defense forces contained the fire with no reported injuries, authorities have not yet provided a timeline for a full return to operations.

One notable detail: No oil tankers were present at the port’s oil loading points at the time, which says something about demand and access. Fujairah sits outside Hormuz and is connected to Abu Dhabi’s oil fields by a pipeline, allowing Murban crude exports to bypass the strait.

Still, activity in Fujairah continued shortly after: An Indian oil tanker safely departed for India from Fujairah with 80.8k tons of the UAE’s Murban oil, Reuters reports, citing India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry. The ministry said 22 Indian vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, while two state-owned LPG carriers successfully transited the strait over the weekend after Iran allowed them passage, delivering fuel to Indian ports.

Meanwhile, jet fuel supply has tightened: Jet fuel storage tanks at Bahrain’s International Airport were set ablaze on Thursday. Up to 30% of Europe’s jet fuel supply comes from the Strait of Hormuz. “Industry-wide, the price of oil — and therefore jet fuel — is also of significant concern. The higher prices rise, and the longer they stay there, the wider the impact will be felt,” Ian Petchenik, director of Communications at Flightradar24, told EnterpriseAM.

Even alternative routes are under pressure: Massive fires broke out at fuel storage tanks at Oman’s Salalah Port on Wednesday after a drone strike. While the Omani government claims no immediate disruption to domestic supply, Maersk has paused all operations at the port. Salalah port had remained a key safe transshipment hub as it sits outside the strait.

PLUS- Adnoc is cutting its onshore shipments: In a strategic shift to bypass the Strait of Hormuz — which has come to a virtual standstill — Adnoc has reportedly cut onshore crude shipments to its equity partners by 20% this month.

The bottom line: The Gulf is shifting from a transit risk to a storage trap. With production sites and storage terminals unsafe, suppliers are being forced to shut down operations and declare forced majeure, as their storage facilities quickly fill up and exit routes are effectively blocked.

The crackdown: Vessels in the line of fire

A container ship operated by German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd was hit near Jebel Ali Port, the company’s Director of Communications Nils Haupt told the Wall Street Journal. The incident resulted in a fire, but no casualties were reported. The firm had previously diverted shipping through the Arabian Gulf, opting to keep calling at Oman’s Salalah Port rather than Jebel Ali.

Ships in the region have taken a beating this week, with three vessels hit on Wednesday — two off the coast of the UAE and one 11 nm north of Oman.

…and restrictions have thus tightened: Hapag-Lloyd suspended bookings to Red Sea ports, for all dangerous goods cargo until further notice as of Thursday. This extends to Egypt’s Sokhna Port, Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia, and Jordan’s Aqaba Port.

The crackdown: Shippers reroute and regroup

Ports under pressure: Iran called for the evacuation of three major ports in the UAE after the US launched strikes on Kharg Island — a key hub for Iranian oil exports — on Saturday.

Jebel Ali holds steady — for now: “While infrastructure remains fully operational, we are deploying regional rerouting and operational mitigation measures to maintain supply chain continuity during this period,” DP World CEO Yuvraj Narayan said on Thursday.

Cargo is shifting east: Regional ports on the Gulf of Oman are seeing a surge in vesselactivity as shippers seek alternatives to the chokepoint where thousands of vessels remain stranded.

But the alternatives are limited: Despite the rerouting of cargo to the UAE’s eastern seaboard, a massive capacity shortfall looms. Jebel Ali handled 15.6 mn TEUs last year. By contrast, the UAE’s ports outside the Strait have strict ceilings — Khorfakkan can handle 5 mn TEUs and Fujairah less than 1 mn. This leaves the UAE unable to fully compensate for lost throughput at Jebel Ali or Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port.

And they may not be safe either: The strike on Fujairah suggests that even facilities outside the Persian Gulf are no longer immune to regional spillover.

Shipping lines are feeling the squeeze: Maersk is also scrambling to protect fuel access — redistributing bunkering supplies across its network as the conflict disrupts fuel flows and storage in the Gulf. The carrier has 10 ships stranded in the Gulf, while around 100 container ships in the area are facing mounting access and operational risks.

And its exposure runs deeper: The Gulf is a key bunkering corridor for container shipping, with ports such as Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Ras Tanura serving as major refueling hubs, shipping expert John D. McCown told EnterpriseAM.

Two layers of risk: This leaves the Danish carrier two layers of exposure — one is direct through the wider disruption to roughly 20% of global crude flows, while the other is indirect through vessels that normally refuel in the region and now face refinery and access disruptions — leaving part of Maersk’s fleet exposed to fuel-related stress, McCown added.

Energy markets are on edge

The slew of strikes rattled markets — causing Brent crude to shoot up beyond USD 100 per barrel last week, after it had just eased back down.

Another producer pulls back: TotalEnergies joined the list of oil producers halting a portion of regional operations across the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq, which accounts for 15% of its global production output, Asharq Business reports.

Looking elsewhere to compensate? TotalEnergies announced it is relaunching production at Libya’s Mabruk oil field — in which it holds a 37% stake — to boost its output in North Africa. Production at the site was halted in 2015, but a new 25k bpd capacity production unit was integrated at the plant in 2024.

Some output remains stable: The energy player said that its onshore operations in the UAE — yielding around 210k bbl / d — remain unaffected by the ongoing regional war. Bahrain’s Bapco and QatarEnergy are among the other firms stopping operations.

What’s next?

Supply chain contagion: Beyond oil, roughly 50% of the ships typically transiting the strait carry raw materials for fertilizers, plastics, and electronics. We can expect a sharp spike in input costs for regional manufacturers as these materials become bottled up.

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