Europe’s energy shock is here: The regional war has tightened LNG supply just as Europe heads into refill season with thinner buffers, with the UK being particularly exposed due to having one of the thinnest gas storage cushions on the continent.

Despite its lack of storage, the UK still has three LNG import terminals and can pull in marginal barrels from the US, energy analyst at CSC Commodities Sacha Foss told EnterpriseAM.

How much is really there? Britain had just 6.9k GWh in storage in early March, down from 9.1k GWh a year earlier. That is roughly equivalent to two days of gas in storage. The UK system depends on continuous inflows from North Sea production, Norwegian pipeline gas, LNG cargoes, and interconnectors with Europe.

The storage gap: Britain’s storage sites can hold only around 12 days of demand, versus about 90 days in Germany, and more than 100 in France — which makes it the quickest in Europe to see global gas shocks affect wholesale prices, power costs, and household bills. Gas still fuels around 30% of Britain’s electricity generation and heats more than 70% of homes — so once LNG tightens, the UK feels it quickly.

Prices could be a real problem. The UK’s main vulnerability is not running out of gas, but paying much more for it if Hormuz stays disrupted, Foss said. With spot LNG still central to pricing and gas-fired power often setting the marginal electricity price, the effect would spread through industry, households, and the wider economy, Foss added.

Europe’s wider problem

The broader European system looks sturdier than Britain's, but it is hardly comfortable. EU storage stood at 27% on 12 March — the lowest for this point in the year since 2022 — which means the bloc is heading into refill season needing more LNG in a market that just got tighter.

The market is already reacting: Benchmark European gas prices have surged, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract jumping 55% between 25 February and 4 March as the Hormuz disruption and the Ras Laffan shutdown continue to tighten global LNG supply.

Where the pressure builds: If the Hormuz paralysis lasts a month, Europe could effectively lose around 7.6 bcm of gas as Asia outbids it for replacement LNG, pushing prices above EUR 60 per MWh from roughly EUR 50.

Small share, big impact: Qatar supplied only about 8% of EU LNG imports in 2Q 2025, but the Ras Laffan shutdown still pushed up European gas prices more than 50% and tightened competition for cargoes across markets, with tankers already diverting toward Asia as buyers there scramble to replace lost Qatari supply.

Exposure is uneven across Europe

A stronger starting point: Central and Eastern Europe are more resilient to supply shocks than they were after Russia’s 2022 invasion, which is due to diversification into LNG, Norwegian gas, new pipeline links, and renewables.

Poland’s push for independence: Poland has spent the past decade building alternatives to Russian supply. Its Baltic access has helped it cut out Russian oil, with the Gdansk serving as an import gateway that now feeds refineries in Germany. Warsaw is now pushing the shift further with around 6 GW of offshore wind planned in the Baltic and a nuclear plant on the coast

A region moving at different speeds: The Czech Republic has built a clearer western route for its energy needs, replacing Russian gas with Norwegian supply and LNG, and ending its dependence on Russian oil after expanding capacity on the TAL pipeline in 2025. Hungary still sits on the other side of the divide — as it remains heavily tied to Russian energy, with around three quarters of its gas and nearly all of its oil still coming from Russia, which is why its markets have been hit harder than most in Central Europe in recent days.

Russia is still in the background

Russian gas on a legal countdown: The EU has now put Russian gas on a legal phaseout timetable, with existing short-term LNG imports ending by 25 April 2026, short-term pipeline gas by 17 June 2026, long-term LNG by 1 January 2027, and long-term pipeline gas by 30 September 2027.

A chance to redirect flows: Moscow says the closure of Hormuz has already driven a significant jump in demand for Russian Energy. With Europe heading for a full phaseout, Russia is now discussing redirecting LNG cargoes from Europe to buyers including India, Thailand, China, and the Philippines — turning the Iran war from supply shock into an opening for Russian gas to move deeper to Asia.

The wider market response came a day later, when the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreed to release 400 mn barrels from emergency reserves, which is significantly larger than the 182 mn release by the agency when Russia invaded Ukraine — making it the largest move of its kind. The barrels are set to be released over a set time period and will be allocated according to each country’s needs.

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