Hopes of return to Hormuz crushed after fresh attacks: Three vessels sustained damage yesterday morning off the UAE and Omani coastline from a “suspected but unknown projectile,” the UKMTO said.

The damage in detail: Two of the three vessels were hit off the coast of the UAE. The first vessel — Thailand flagged –– was hit some 25 nautical miles (nm) northwest of Ras al Khaimah, while the second was hit some 50 nm northwest of Dubai. Investigations are currently underway to assess the extent of the damage to both ships, but all crew members are safe. The third — a Japanese container ship — was hit some 11 nm north of Oman, resulting in a fire onboard and all crew members being evacuated from the vessel.

But, trade flows haven't stopped entirely — Iran is still reportedly exporting oil to China and India, with “at least nine sanctioned tankers operating in or around the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24hrs,” maritime risk analyst Martin Kelly said on LinkedIn.

Let’s zoom out: These incidents are part of a surge in regional maritime hostilities following US and Israeli strikes on Iran last week. Overall, some 17 incidents — 13 of which were attacks — impacting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf occurred since the escalation. Previously, the waterway handled a daily transit of 14 mn barrels of crude and 6 mn barrels of refined products. With vessels now being hit and crews evacuated, the risk premium has transitioned into a no-go reality for many operators.

Why this matters: With hundreds of ships now anchored around Hormuz, the disruption to Middle East oil exports has moved from a temporary shock to a structural paralysis. Saudi Aramco has already warned of “catastrophic consequences” for global markets if this remains unresolved.

Conflict surcharges — already ranging between USD 2k and USD 3.3k per TEU — will continue to inch up the longer the high-risk potential persists. However, in the case of Hormuz, the mounting addons go beyond the risk premiums and include additional fuel costs. Emergency fuel surcharges are now being quoted on top of risk premiums, including CMA CGM’s USD 180 container surcharge.

Let’s run through the contingency plans so far

The US pedaled back on its proposed plan to safeguard vessel transits through the strait — fulfilling shipping analysts' expectations. The US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry to provide military escorts through Hormuz for the time being, on the basis that the “risk of attack is too high for now,” three shipping industry sources told Reuters.

So who could secure the strait? “Neither France, the US, an international coalition, or anybody is in a position to secure the ⁠Strait of Hormuz,” European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa director Adel Bakawan said.

For now, the focus is on ins. rather than escorts. The UK is working with its allies on a range of potential options to support commercial shipping through the strait, PM Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said. For now, the government is liaising with Lloyd’s of London to guarantee “appropriate ins. cover [is] available to operators,” including cover for war, revolution, and terrorism.

Are there any workarounds?

Adnoc has instructed its onshore partners to collect their Murban crude from the port of Jebel Dhanna in the Gulf just beyond Hormuz. At least two of the six equity holders of Adnoc’s onshore output were told their March supply must be picked up from this terminal.

The move comes as some shipowners are increasingly avoiding Fujairah — the UAE's primary export hub outside the Arabian Gulf — due to reported missile threats. The shipowners avoiding Fujairah have cancelled their shipments, a move that should allow producers to resell and upmark their cargos.

The disruption is spreading beyond oil: Both DP World and AD Ports enacted temporary contingency arrangements to allow customers to reroute import containers from Khorfakkan and Fujairah ports to Dubai’s Jebel Ali via bonded road transit earlier this week.

A forced reversal of strategy? The UAE spent years building infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but now missile threats at Fujairah are forcing volumes back into the Gulf. While redirecting shipments to Jebel Dhanna allows Adnoc to potentially resell canceled cargoes at higher prices, it adds a layer of complexity for equity holders who now have to navigate vessels through a high-risk zone to reach Jebel Dhanna.

The move to Jebel Dhanna will be a litmus test for shipowner appetite. We will be looking at whether tankers are actually willing to move past the strait to reach the new pickup point or if this simply results in further stranded volumes.

One safer outlet remains: Oman’s Salalah port remains a keysafe transshipment hub as it sits outside the strait — Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd continue to call at Salalah despite dropping Jebel Ali.

The aviation sector is also reeling

Operations at DXB persist despite a near-hit from drones. Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport (DXB), injuring four, while traffic continues “operating as normal,” according to a post on X. The airport had temporarily suspended operations this weekend, after falling debris from intercepted missiles disrupted operations.

Bahrain is also jumping to shelter its aviation fleet — relocating 17 aircraft out of the country to shield them from potential Iranian missile and drone attacks.

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