When the main route ghosts you, the old ones suddenly start calling back: Energy and trade flows across our region are now being rerouted after shipping through Hormuz stalled, forcing producers and exporters to improvise new — or old — pathways.

Saudi Arabia is scrambling west as the tanker fleet piles into Yanbu. At least 25 supertankers are now heading toward the kingdom’s Red Sea port to keep crude flowing. The flotilla could move some 50 mn barrels of oil if fully loaded, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The tanker buildup tells you how fast the industry is redrawing the export map. Bloomberg’s data captures vessels that signaled Yanbu as their destination in the past two days, though the real number may be higher. Tankers often mask their destinations during conflict, which means the armada forming off the Red Sea could be larger than the data suggests.

The rerouting is not just physical, it’s contractual and commercial, with Aramco giving buyers flexibility to shift where they load crude. The Saudi giant has asked Asian customers to submit April nomination plans for both Ras Tanura and Yanbu, with the latter option limited only to Arab Light, allowing buyers to shift some liftings away from the east coast while Hormuz remains stalled.

The play hinges on the east-west pipeline — the kingdom’s emergency bypass around Hormuz. Crude flows through the pipeline — mainly Arab Light and Arab Extra Light — are being ramped up toward its full 7 mn bbl / d capacity within days, Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser recently said. The tankers heading for Yanbu are the other half of that strategy — repositioning ships from the Gulf to the Red Sea so the oil has somewhere to go once it reaches the coast.

How much can the pipeline really handle? While the East-West Pipeline has a standard nameplate capacity of 5 mn bbl / d, Aramco proved it could stretch this to 7 mn bbl / d when it temporarily expanded its capacity in 2019 amid tensions in the Gulf. The real question is whether pumping stations — many of which have been upgraded over the last decade — can maintain the 7 mn bbl / d throughput sustainability if the blockade of Hormuz lasts for months rather than weeks.

Another face of the strategy is Egypt

Egypt has offered its Sumed pipeline –– Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir — to facilitate the transfer of Saudi crude oil from Yanbu to the Mediterranean, effectively creating a land-to-pipe bridge, a government source previously told us. This would avoid potential ins. premiums associated with Red Sea sailings.

Don’t expect a like-for-like replacement for Hormuz: Its capacity is much lower, former Egyptian Oil Minister Osama Kamal previously told EnterpriseAM. The pipeline has a capacity of 2.5 mnbbl / d. “Sumed could provide a temporary solution” to help Aramco fulfill its contracts with European offtakers, former Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company head Medhat Youssef told us.

ICYMI- Egypt also offered 10 crude and petroleum storage facilities for lease in the Red Sea to attract oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, while doubling storage capacity at its Sumed- and Ras Badran-associated facilities, a senior government official previously told EnterpriseAM. This matters because if maritime disruptions persist, producers may be forced to cut output as storage fills.

Could Egypt serve as a lifeline?

While oil reroutes west, trade is shifting through Egypt's Red Sea corridor. Freight demand on the Safaga-Duba route between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has surged as exporters look for ways around maritime risk. Volumes are now running at some 25-30% above normal levels as shippers pivot to hybrid land-sea routes that bypass both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Al Manassa reports, citing people in Egypt’s overland transport sector.

The workaround is simple but effective: Trucks drive to Safaga, board ferries to Duba, and continue into Gulf markets. The route is now moving some 500 refrigerated containers a day across four ferries — about 12.5k tons of cargo daily. Eight ferries from public and private operators are now regularly servicing the corridor, making it one of the few trade lanes benefiting from the disruption.

The surge isn’t just Egyptian exports — the corridor is becoming a transit bridge. Cargo arriving through Mediterranean ports is also feeding into the route as part of broader transit trade flows toward the Gulf.

Easing red tape to keep the detours moving: The Egyptian government has temporarily exempted transit cargo heading to Gulf markets through the Red Sea ports of Nuweiba, Ain Sokhna, and Safaga from the advance cargo information system for three months. The exemption applies only to shipments in transit.

Jordan is also seeing a smaller version of the same shift: Truck traffic moving from Egypt through Nuweiba to Aqaba has climbed from the usual 60-70 trucks to roughly 100 refrigerated containers on some days. However, only a 10% increase is directly tied to the war, with the rest linked to seasonal demand.

What this means

It is really about proximity and reliability. While other global routes are tangled up in delays, Egypt is close enough to ensure that products — especially food — actually arrive on time.

This matters because the Red Sea route may be getting a second chance. Attacks in the region starting 2023 slashed traffic in recent years, forcing shipping lines to divert vessels and leaving the corridor underused. Now the disruption around Hormuz is pushing energy and cargo flows westward again — even if slightly. However, a notable concern remains over Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since the tensions began earlier this month.

Tags: