Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a fairly brisk read this morning — the first since the start of the regional war. Egyptian exporters are rerouting to Europe or hitting pause as freight and ins. costs spike — a sharp blow for USD 9 bn in Gulf-bound goods. Meanwhile, Hormuz traffic is still stalled 10 days in, splitting the VLCC market: some ships are stranded east, others are reaping in on record Red Sea returns.

Did Trump just give us reason to believe the end of the war is nigh? US President Donald Trump last night said that the war will end “very soon.” The messaging from the White House sent oil prices tumbling from nearly USD 120 / bbl during trading to below USD 90 / bbl.

Before you get your hopes up: Trump threatened bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Tehran disrupted oil supplies. The administration aims to keep down oil prices after they “went artificially up” following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Trump said.

The big logistics story abroad

G7, IEA are readying the emergency oil taps as Brent fluctuates. G7 finance ministers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) held an emergency meeting to discuss a massive, coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, though they decided to hold off for now while the group monitors the situation, Bloomberg quotes France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure as saying.

This would come after a historic surge in crude prices — triggered by the conflict in the Gulf — propelled Brent 24% higher in Asia to trade at over USD 116 as of Monday before cooling down after Trump signaled that the war is nearing its end.

US officials are reportedly considering a release of up to 400 mn barrels, CNBC reports, nearly 30% of the total IEA reserve, in an effort to soothe markets. Analysts suggest the record price spike has left them little choice, despite previous reluctance under the Trump administration.

A prolonged spike in oil prices threatens an inflationary surge, which could cause lasting damage to global economic growth. The stability of the global energy supply chain is at risk, with Qatar’s energy minister warning that Gulf exporters could halt production within days. Major importers, including India, Japan, and Italy, are most exposed to these price shocks.

If the release fails to bring prices down, we can expect immediate downstream impacts on freight rates and operational costs.

Watch this space

SUPPLY CHAINS — Airspace disruption may soon reroute gold: Ghana is drawing up contingency plans to send artisanal gold elsewhere if the UAE’s airspace disruptions persist, Reuters reports, citing sources briefed on the matter. It’s an early sign that disrupted Gulf skies are starting to interfere with one of Dubai’s quieter specialties of managing global gold flows.

Why Ghana cares: Dubai’s trade role isn’t just about passengers and shopping bags — it’s also a high-value cargo artery that much of Africa quietly depends on. About 80% of Ghana’s artisanal output lands in the UAE for refining.

A silver lining for Dubai? The fallback comes with a bigger bill: Shanghai and Indian refiners are emerging as alternatives, but traders say neither is cheap. Higher rerouting costs could help maintain Dubai as the preferred destination once skies clear.

CARGO — Qatar leans on Saudi land route to safeguard goods supply: Doha opened an overland transit corridor through Saudi Arabia to keep cargo moving as pressure on Gulf shipping lanes builds. Qatar Chamber and the General Authority of Customs are nudging shippers to register under the TIR transit system, allowing trucks to move goods across the Saudi border under a single customs guarantee with expedited clearance through the Al Nadeeb electronic customs platform.

Why it matters: For Qatar, the Saudi corridor has effectively become a lifeline for essential imports and reduces exposure to disrupted shipping lanes.

ENERGY — Bahrain’s Bapco Energies declared force majeure after its refinery complex, the country’s only refining node, was struck, noting that domestic market needs will continue to be met under contingency plans. Bapco’s refinery processes about 267k bbl / d and is being expanded to roughly 380k bbl / d, with around 14 mn barrels of storage at the site.

Force majeure all over: Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure last week, while QatarEnergy declared did the same on LNG shipments after attacks hit its facilities and halted production. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has also cut crude output and refining throughput and declared force majeure on Saturday after the Hormuz crisis blocked shipments.

Market watch

Oil prices dropped this morning as US President Donald Trump signaled the war could end soon — easing supply concerns, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures slipped USD 4.17 to trade at USD 94.79 / bb by 03.45 GMTl, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down USD 3.81 to USD 90.96 / bbl.

The Baltic Index breaks declining streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 2.8% to 2,066 points on Monday, buoyed by the larger-size segment. The capesize gained 7.8% to 2,835 points, while the panamax index decreased 2.5% to 1,914. The smaller supramax index declined by 0.9% to 1,373 points.

Data point

Kuwait’s non-oil private sector improved at its sharpest pace since November 2024, with the headline purchasing managers’ index rising to 54.5 in February from 53 in January, according to the S&P Global Kuwait PMI (pdf). This marks 18 consecutive months of expansion, driven by a 15-month high in new order growth.

The rate of job creation remained unchanged from January despite 12 months of consecutive hiring in February. “With backlogs rising at a fresh record pace for three months in a row now, fulfilling customer requirements in a timely manner is becoming more difficult, although companies did expand their purchasing activity at a near-record pace in February to help make sure the necessary materials are available going forward.” Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence Andrew Harker said in the note.

Business sentiment surged to a 26-month high in February, as firms maintained a robust outlook for output growth over the coming year. This wave of optimism is being underpinned by focuses on diversifying product portfolios, maintaining competitive pricing structures, and delivering high-quality customer service.

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