The war is spreading further afield on day six, with shocks rippling across aviation, energy, and critical commodities as the Hormuz crisis begins to hit global supply chains.

Airspace remains restricted

Aviation hubs remain restricted, and major carriers are extending flight suspensions:

  • Emirates has suspended flights until Saturday, 7 March, operating a limited number of journeys, Gulf News reports;
  • Etihad Airways is suspending all flights to and from Abu Dhabi until 6 March;
  • Air Arabia halted flights until Monday, 9 March, including flights to and from Sharjah and Abu Dhabi, Dubai Eye reports;
  • Flydubai announced a partial resumption of scheduled flights, with limited flights operating from terminals 2 and 3 at Dubai International Airport.

Fujairah is coordinating some chartered flights, working with Oman’s SalamAir to run journeys between Fujairah International Airport to India, Turkey, and Pakistan through Oman yesterday and today, according to Arabian Business.

Force majeure declared across gas and aluminum

Global gas shock: As Hormuz disruptions mount, Qatar declared force majeure on all gas exports, and the state energy giant QatarEnergy (QE) halted all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production this week, according to a post on X. With Qatar supplying 20% of the world’s and 80% of Asia’s LNG, the move is likely to put global gas markets in a weeks-long shortage.

QE indicates a minimum four-week recovery timeline, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The production halt has driven European and Asian gas prices to multi-year highs.

Aluminum is also taking a hit: Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure yesterday, Reuters reports — leading aluminum prices to rise by as much as 5.1% to USD 3.4k per ton. This figure could still rise if the closure persists, with 8% of the world’s aluminum supply coming from the Bahraini smelter. The news comes after Qatari smelter Qatalum said it was shutting down operations earlier in the week.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz was behind the closure, a spokesperson told the newswire, adding that the firm is unable to resume shipments, even as production continues as usual, and that it was looking into alternative shipping options.

Crude output at risk across Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE

Iraq and Kuwait could begin shutting down crude production if Hormuz remains closed, with some 3.3 mn bbl / d at risk, Reuters reports, citing JP Morgan. Iraq has some three days, while Kuwait has about two weeks before storage fills and shipments grind to a halt.

Shutdowns are already underway, with the UAE’s Dana Gas temporarily suspending production at Iraq’s Kor Mor field due to concerns over the ongoing regional security situation, according to a statement (pdf). Production will halt until further notice while the company monitors the ongoing situation.

Aramco’s Ras Tanura was targeted by an attempted drone strike yesterday, the Defense Ministry said on X. The attack came two days after a previous drone strike temporarily shut down the refinery. Officials said there was no damage and no disruption to supplies. And in the early hours of the morning the ministry said it intercepted and destroyed drones east of Al Kharj.

Stretch the disruption and the numbers climb: Losses are estimated to reach 3.8 mn bbl / d around day 15 and 4.7 mn bbl / d by day 18 if the closure persists, according to the bank.

The concern isn’t in vain –– GCC energy sites have come under fire. Oman’s Duqm port and Salalah Port faced drone attacks earlier this week. Over in the UAE, oil storage tanks in Fujairah were hit by falling debris, resulting in a fire at the JSW terminal.

Over in India: The crude oil flow disruptions have pushed Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals to declare force majeure on all gasoline export cargoes scheduled for March and April. The state-run refiner, which operates a 300k bbl / d facility in Karnataka, had already awarded two to three cargoes for early March loading and is now negotiating with buyers to settle the supplies.

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