Good morning, nice people. Wherever you are in the region, we hope you are safe and sound. The regional security landscape took a turn after a sweeping attack by the US and Israel on Iran over the weekend, prompting a drone and missile strike retaliation from Tehran on Israel and several Arab countries.

What does this mean for us? We explore below both immediate and long-term implications for regional trade and logistics in our news well below. But first…

From The Dept. of Minor Inconveniences

Our website is down: EnterpriseAM.com is one of the many, many services hosted on Amazon Web Services out of the UAE. The data center that hosts our site — and the apps and websites of dozens of other brands you know — was damaged after “objects hit” it, reportedly starting a fire and leading to a power outage. Our site has been down since mid-afternoon on Sunday and we're yet to hear from Amazon about when we can expect it to be back up.

Watch this space

M&A — Adnoc eyes Shell’s Australian LNG stake. Adnoc’s investment arm XRG is in preliminary talks with Shell to acquire a stake in the North West Shelf liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Australia, sources told Bloomberg last week. While discussions are at an early stage and Shell is speaking with other potential buyers, the agreement would involve a slice of Australia’s oldest and second-largest LNG export facility. Shell first floated the sale of a USD 3 bn stake in the plant back in September.

Adnoc is not the only regional heavyweight eyeing the asset. MidOcean Energy — backed by Saudi Aramco — is also in the running for the Shell stake, Bloomberg reports. Through MidOcean, Saudi Aramco already holds indirect stakes in several Australian LNG projects, including Gorgon, Queensland Curtis, and Pluto.

Why it matters: Following its acquisition of a stake in the Rio Grande LNG project in the US last year, a move into Australia would give the UAE state energy giant a strategic foothold in the Asian market — the world’s primary destination for LNG. With Argentinian LNG also on the horizon, the move signals that Adnoc is expanding its presence in the global gas market, competing directly with global peers for long-term supply security.

What’s next: Watch for the valuation and the size of the stake. The North West Shelf project is a complex joint venture with multiple partners –– including Woodside Energy and BP –– so any Adnoc entry will require navigating a sophisticated web of existing shareholder agreements.

Market watch

Oil prices surged this morning as regional wear threatened global recovery and rising inflation, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained 6.4% to trade at USD 76.57 / bbl, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 6.2% to USD 71.17 / bbl.

Meanwhile, Opec+ is adding barrels to global supply in April: Opec+ agreed to resume production increases next month, with key members agreeing to 206k bbl / d after pausing hikes in 1Q, according to a statement. This comes as turmoil rattles the Middle East, regional output faces threats, traffic in Hormuz is halted, and talk of oil reaching triple digits surfaces. Middle Eastern leaders have warned the US that a war on Iran could push oil prices above USD 100 / bbl, RBC’s Helima Croft told Reuters, with Barclays analysts penciling in the same level.

The move comes as oil flirts with triple-digit talk: Middle Eastern leaders have warned the US that a war on Iran could push prices above USD 100 per barrel, RBC’s Helima Croft told Reuters, with Barclays analysts flagging the same level.

A supply flex (with limits): The Kingdom, alongside Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, had already begun boosting exports from last month to multi-year highs, in anticipation of the attacks. The group’s spare capacity sits largely with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, totaling some 2.5 mn bbl / d.

The Baltic Index rebounds: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 1.1% to 2,140 points on Friday, ending a two-session slide. The capesize edged up 0.2% to 3,056 points, and the panamax index added 1.4% to 1,942, while the smaller supramax index gained 3% to 1,338 points.

The Drewry World Container Index decreased by 1% to USD 1,899 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The decline is driven by a drop across the transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially the Shanghai-Genoa (2%), Shanghai-New York (1%), and Shanghai-Rotterdam (1%) routes, with gradual return to full production after Lunar New Year factory shutdowns.

A further decline is expected over the next few weeks, according to Drewry. A decline is in line with forecasts of a supply glut in 2026 and 2027 that could drive a sharp dip in shipping prices, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco previously said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

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