Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re deep into the pre-Ramadan rush, and the region’s energy players and logistics giants aren’t exactly winding down for the short hours just yet. The theme of the day is outward expansion and high-stakes infrastructure.

The big story today? AD Ports is planting a flag in West Africa. The logistics giant just locked in a 30-year concession to develop and operate a new dry bulk terminal at Cameroon’s Douala Port — a move that adds to its growing Africa portfolio as it vies to dominate the corridor.

The big logistics story abroad

United Airlines is dropping Airbus’ A350 jet from its fleet plan amid Rolls-Royce feud: United Airlines has moved to remove the Airbus A350-900 from its long-term fleet delivery schedule, signaling a potential cancellation of its long-delayed order for 45 of the widebody jets. The decision followed a court filing by the airline, which claimed that UK-based Rolls-Royce — the sole engine provider for the A350 — is in breach of a 2010 agreement concerning engine purchases.

We’ve reached a tipping point: United Airlines is requesting a refund of the USD 175 mn commitment it made out to the engine provider in 2017, according to its 10-K filing (pdf). Rolls-Royce has denied the breach, terminated the agreements, and countersued United for damages. Airbus has declined to comment.

Background: United Airlines expanded its Airbus order to 45 jets in 2017 –– valued at some USD 14 bn –– which has since been repeatedly delayed or deferred. Deliveries were expected to begin in 2022, but have since been pushed back.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — BlueFive Capital’s new target is the hot jet-leasing market: Abu Dhabi-based PE firm BlueFive Capital has launched BlueFive Leasing, a Muscat-based aircraft leasing and asset management platform. The new platform’s first order of business will be the launch of BlueFive Wings Fund I, targeting USD 1 bn in commitments, in collaboration with an unnamed Omani sovereign institution.

The timing is right: There is rising regional and global demand for jet leases as carriers resort to rented aircraft to boost their fleets. The pivot to leases is further powered by entrenched supply chain snags and industry-wide delivery delays, coupled with unprecedented demand for passenger and cargo capacity.

AVIATION — EgyptAir is set to add 12 new aircraft to its fleet this year, including the addition yesterday of its first Airbus A350-900 aircraft, according to a statement from the Civil Aviation Ministry. Egypt’s flagship carrier plans to add 34 new planes from the A350-900 and Boeing 737-8 Max families to its fleet by 2031, including 13 new aircraft in 2027.

Why it matters: The move aims to support the country’s goal of seeing some 30 mn tourists land in Egypt in 2030, over double the amount recorded last year. However, there are obstacles to building a fleet beyond getting funds ready, with airlines globally facing an aircraft shortage due to manufacturers — particularly engine builders — struggling to keep up with demand due to supply chain issues and a lack of skilled labor.

TRADE — Cyprus has agreed to bankroll the USD 2 bn pipeline connecting its Aphrodite field to liquefaction facilities in Egypt, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. Cypriot negotiators had initially been pushing for a 50:50 split, but agreed to cover the costs in exchange for utilizing Egyptian infrastructure, including its regasification vessels and liquefaction plants.

Why this matters: With domestic production slumps proving hard to turn around, securing flows from Aphrodite’s estimated 3.5 tcf of reserves will be critical for Egypt to ensure that its energy export hub plans will one day see the light of day.

What’s next? Construction on the pipeline is expected to start in 2027 with gas flows planned to start flowing in 2030, our source tells us. And in the near term, keep your eyes peeled for this year’s Egypt Energy Show in late March, which is expected to be accompanied with some big announcements on our gas re-export ambitions with Cyprus.

Market watch

Oil prices steadied this morning as traders weighed US-Iran talks against looming Opec+ supply increases, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures inched up USD 0.03 to trade at USD 69.78 / bbl as of 03:58 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up USD 0.02 to USD 62.91 / bbl.

In other closer-to-home news: Opec+ appears set to increase oil production starting in April, Reuters reports, citing three Opec+ sources. The move would help Saudi Arabia and the UAE reclaim market share, while other members, including Russia and Iran, grapple with sanctions, and Kazakhstan faces production challenges. The eight key producers meet on 1 March to finalize the next steps.

Restarting the increase: The group raised output by 2.9 mn bbl / d from April through December but held off on further increases during the slower winter months.

The Baltic Index slightly slips: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.6% to 2,083 points on Friday, its highest since mid-December. The capesize dropped 1.9% to 3,181 points, while the panamax index inched 0.6% to 1,743. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax index rose 1.8% to 1,186.

The Drewry World Container Index decreased by 1% to USD 1,933 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The decline is driven by a drop across the transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially the Shanghai-New York (1%), Shanghai-Los Angeles (1%), and Shanghai-Rotterdam (2%) routes, as demand softened ahead of factory shutdowns.

A further decline is expected over the next few weeks, according to Drewry. A decline is in line with forecasts of a supply glut in 2026 and 2027 that could drive a sharp dip in shipping prices, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco previously said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

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