Good morning, folks. We’re starting our week strong with an issue packed with aviation updates from across the region.

Leading today: Syria’s aviation sector is set to be the star of the show in Saudi Arabia’s multi-bn SAR investment push into the Levantine country. A mix of private and public Saudi firms is going all in on the sector, earmarking SAR 7.5 bn for the development of Aleppo airport development and launching a new Syrian-Saudi airline.

ALSO- The Mubadala-backed MRO player is going all in on Rolls-Royce’s engines, inking a contract that expands its MRO slots for the Trent 700 engine through 2031. Meanwhile, we have the latest on Saudia’s next move — and it includes a possible mega order for up to 150 jets from Boeing and Airbus.

The big logistics story abroad

Maersk is sounding the overcapacity alarm for the shipping industry in its latest earnings release, forecasting a possible operational loss of up to USD 1.5 bn in 2026 as the industry braces for squeezed spot rates due to record new vessels and the Red Sea return.

This could be the world’s second-largest shipper’s first loss in over a decade, despite a robust forecast for container demand growth of 2% to 4% in 2026. In a best-case scenario for its earnings, the Danish shipping giant penciled in USD 1 bn in net income.

To put it in perspective: The container shipping industry’s orderbook now stands above 34% of its current fleet size, while vessels of 20+ years in operation constitute just 17% of the fleet, Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen said in a note.

Watch this space

AVIATION — More jets for Saudia? National air carrier Saudia is in early talks with Boeing and Airbus over a potential order for at least 150 aircraft, in what could become the airline’s largest purchase to date, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. The order is expected to include a mix of narrow-body and widebody jets to both replace aging models in Saudia’s current 200-plane fleet and expand overall capacity.

Why it matters: The 80-year-old national carrier is being repositioned with a dual focus to dominate the high-volume religious pilgrimage market while modernizing its brand, whereas PIF-backed Riyadh Air targets global luxury fliers. The purchase comes amid intensifying competition from low-cost carriers both domestically (flynas and flyadeal) and regionally.

Not the first big order: The air carrier purchased 105 Airbus narrow-body jets in May 2024 and ordered nearly 40 Boeing 787 Dreamliners in 2023.

TRADE — Egypt’s Investment Ministry and the General Organization for Export and Import Control (GOEIC) are tightening oversight on exports of fertilizers, cement, steel, and appliances to ensure Egyptian goods don’t lose access to international markets over environmental standards, according to a government decision reviewed by EnterpriseAM.

Under the new decree, exporters must now provide the GOEIC with carbon emissions reports before obtaining prior approval to export. This data will go towards a national database of exporters’ carbon emissions put together by the authority.

Why this matters: This isn’t just about bureaucracy — this is about the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The EU — a primary destination for our fertilizers and steel — is increasingly requiring rigorous carbon accounting. By centralizing this data, the government is trying to stay ahead of the curve by securing the data so it knows where to act to maintain market access.

SUPPLY CHAINS — The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is set to ship 50k tons of copper to Saudi Arabia and the UAE via a US-backed JV between state miner Gecamines and Swiss commodities group Mercuria, the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) said in a statement last week. This comes after Gecamines already agreed to ship 100k tons to the US last month.

The US is looking to secure its foothold in the DRC’s China-dominated supply chain — and its allies are included. “Growing cooperation between the US and the DRC ensures valuable critical minerals are directed to the US and our allies, and strengthens the economic viability of our African partners,” DFC CEO Ben Black said in a statement emailed to Bloomberg. China heavily leads as the DRC’s major importer, importing USD 21.6 bn worth of goods — out of USD 29.6 bn exported in 2024 — followed by South Korea, India, Saudi Arabia, and Spain.

And the UAE is making a play into how the DRC moves its exports, with AD Ports inking a heads of terms agreement to explore the development and operation of a multipurpose terminal at the key Atlantic gateway, the Matadi Port.

In context: The UAE and the US have recently been expanding their cooperation in the sector, after the UAE joined Pax Silica, a US-led framework designed to secure the supply chains underpinning artificial intelligence.

Market watch

Oil prices dropped this morning after the US and Iran committed to resume talks, assuaging market fears of a regional conflict for now, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell USD 0.67 to trade at USD 67.38 / bbl as of 04:44 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down USD 0.61 to USD 62.94 / bbl.

On a regional note, Saudi cut the official selling price for Arab Light crude for March shipments to Asian buyers by USD 0.30 / bbl, bringing its flagship grade to the lowest level since December 2020, according to Bloomberg. This also brings the price to parity with the Oman/Dubai benchmark — the lowest level in over five years.

The reduction signals that global demand continues to outpace immediate demand, although Aramco opted for a more moderate cut than the expected USD 0.50-0.85 / bbl.

The Baltic Index keeps sliding: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.7% to 1,923 points on Friday, marking a fifth straight session of declines. The capesize slid 1.1% to 2,918 points, while the panamax index slipped 0.4% to 1,652. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax index rose 0.2% to hit 1,104.

The Drewry World Container Index decreased by 7% to USD 1,959 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The decline is driven by a drop across the transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially the Shanghai-Los Angeles (8%) and Shanghai-New York (5%) routes, after the easing of the Chinese New Year demand rush.

A further decline is expected over the next few weeks, according to Drewry. A decline is in line with forecasts of a supply glut in 2026 and 2027 that could drive a sharp dip in shipping prices, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco previously said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

Data point

49.8 — that’s the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index figure for Egypt in January, according to the latest S&P Global Egypt PMI (pdf), signaling that the non-oil private sector slipped into contraction for the first time in four months. The index landed just below the 50.0 threshold but remained above its long-run average. Despite the slight dip, output rose for the third consecutive month — the longest expansion streak since late 2020 — supported by strong international demand even as total new orders softened.

The breakdown: Cost pressures eased to their joint-slowest pace in 10 months, allowing firms to cut selling prices for the first time since mid-2020 to boost competitiveness. Output growth coincided with rising spare capacity, as firms cleared backlogs at the fastest rate in nearly three years and left positions vacant, driving the sharpest dip in employment since October 2023. While falling price indices have fueled expectations of sizable interest rate cuts this year, business confidence remained subdued, with firms maintaining a cautious outlook on future activity.

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