How to unlock autonomous trucking’s economic potential: The UAE has made early moves in the rollout of robotaxis and autonomous freight, with more initiatives going live over the past few years. This was partially driven by rising regulatory clarity on how to run pilots and larger-scale commercial operations for autonomous vehicles.

The landscape: On the logistics front, the first mile is leading on uptake, with autonomous trucks already in operation in controlled freezones environments like Jafza, Kezad, and DWC, and more pilots are in the works on the last-mile front. On the passenger transportation front, robotaxis and eVTOLs are also advancing quickly.

There’s a catch: Most of the current rollouts, especially passenger-focused ones, are happening at localized levels, with operational licenses being rolled out on an emirate-by-emirate basis. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are leading on pilots and licensing — and Ras Al Khaimah is catching up with the adoption of new regulations for autonomous vehicles.

This leaves out the higher-value middle-mile segment of autonomous logistics. Because there is currently no comprehensive mutual recognition of licenses, a driverless truck approved in Dubai may become unauthorized the moment it crosses into Abu Dhabi. With high CAPEX associated with autonomous trucking, the lack of country-wide licensing effectively limits operations for the middle-mile and disincentivizes wider uptake.

Uh, the middle mile, Enterprise? The middle mile is the long-haul journey between two fixed hubs — typically moving large volumes of freight from a port like Jebel Ali to a regional distribution center or warehouse. Unlike the last mile, which involves many small stops to deliver packages to homes, the middle mile is largely dominated by heavy trucks moving continuously on highways.

Why the middle mile matters: It is — analysts argue — where the real economic prize lies. However, the economics of this sector are far more fragile than those of the last mile, according to data provided to us by Ken Research. The payback period for autonomous middle-mile trucks is currently 5-7 years — significantly longer than the 3.5-5 years for smaller last-mile vehicles, Ken Research tells EnterpriseAM. But right now, a truck licensed under Dubai’s 2023 law could become unauthorized for autonomous operation the moment it crosses over to another emirate.

It all boils down to unified rules. If comprehensive nationwide regulations allowing Level 4 autonomy across emirates were implemented today, we would see an immediate 18% to 25% uplift in market value, Ken Research estimates. In the longer term, the effect would be more significant, increasing the sector’s CAGR from approximately 25% to 30–33% as deployment constraints ease and fleet procurement accelerates.

DATA POINT- The UAE’s trucking industry is a USD 5.5 bn heavyweight that moves over USD500 mn in weekly goods across the Saudi border alone.

What comes next? The cross-border multiplier? With Saudi-bound flows essential to the UAE’s trucking industry, advancing a unified autonomous regulation in the wider GCC could also help cut idle time and raise utilization rates — enough to justify the high CAPEX for new autonomous trucks.

Tags: