The container shipping market is bracing for a supply glut in 2027, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. The possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings “looms large over the market outlook,” putting the global ship demand on a trajectory to fall by 10%, Bimco said.

The outlook: Bimco expects a close supply and demand balance in 2026, with supply growing 3% and demand at 2.5–3.5%. However, supply is expected to outpace demand in 2027 as more new ships are delivered.

DATA POINT- Fleet capacity is slated to jump to over 36 mn TEUs by the end of 2027, largely driven by a 20% growth in vessels with a capacity of more than 12k TEU.

Bimco also flagged some macro risks: If the US AI bubble bursts, global container volume growth could drop 1 percentage point below current forecasts. This is combined with a lag in retail sales volumes in the US, EU, and China — “all growing at less than 2% y-o-y over the last three months,” says the report.

Why does this matter? If ships return to the shorter Suez route, they complete voyages faster, effectively increasing available capacity. If that happens while new ships are still being delivered at the current pace, rates could crash.

Serious enough to test the waters? France’s CMA CGM and Maersk recently sent vessels through the Bab El Mandeb Strait for the first time in years — but nowhere near ready to dive in.

Dig deeper: EnterpriseAM sat down with Martin Kelly, head analyst at EOS Marine, part of EOS Risk Group, to explore how serious global shipping giants are about returning to the Red Sea.

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