How serious are global shipping giants about returning to the Red Sea? Serious enough to test the waters — France’s CMA CGM and Maersk recently sent vessels through the Bab El Mandeb Strait for the first time in years — but nowhere near ready to dive in. We recently spoke with Martin Kelly, head analyst at EOS Marine, part of EOS Risk Group, to get a lay of the waters.

ENTERPRISEAM: Are we witnessing the beginnings of return to the status quo on Red Sea waters?

MARTIN KELLY: It’s far too risky for me. If I were a security manager at a shipping company, we wouldn’t be going there yet. There is no single answer — it’s down to individual risk tolerance. If there is a return, it will be gradual: individual lines or a few ships here and there, rather than anyone saying, “Okay, let’s go all in.”

It's on a knife-edge, a situation that could turn overnight. The longer a ceasefire holds, the more we might see a new norm in which everyone adheres to new rules. But so far, that hasn’t been the case — we’re still seeing breaches of the ceasefire, both above and below the threshold of open conflict.

ENTERPRISEAM: Ins. rates have dropped nearly 70% f from their mid-2024 highs, but they still remain multiples of their pre-September 2023 ratess. Why is this the case?

MARTIN KELLY: There is a huge misconception that the Houthis are just a militia. They have lots of fighters, they are well-armed, and they fight in a hybrid space. They aren’t going away; they’re building presence and power in different pockets. This shifts the defensive playing field constantly. And as long as the Houthis remain active, rates can never go back down to what they were.

ENTERPRISEAM: What is the current threat profile?

MARTIN KELLY: We’ve seen the targeting progress through four distinct phases. First, it was ships directly linked to Israel. Second, it expanded to ships calling at Israeli ports. Third, US and UK ships were added to the target list.

We are now in phase four, where it gets complex: They are targeting any ship if a vessel within that company’s fleet has called at an Israeli port. This has caused the rate of misidentification to shoot up — when relying on open-source intelligence, the Houthis are prone to misinformation. If you are a shipping company, the risk of misidentification — on top of everything else — makes this a huge risk.

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