Breaking down non-oil private sector performance in KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, and Egypt: Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) tracking non-energy sectors reported similar results in the four countries in November, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait remaining in expansion territory. Meanwhile, Egypt jumped back into the green territory at the fastest pace in five years.

REMEMBER- The crucial 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

SAUDI ARABIA-

The non-oil private sector in the Kingdom continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower rate than the preceding month, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally adjusted figure dropped to 58.5 in November, down from 60.2 in October, which was the second-fastest level since September 2014. However, the index still indicates a healthy non-oil private sector.

New orders slowed down from October’s peak, but their overall growth remains one of the fastest rates recorded in 2025 — with the new orders subindex dropping to 64.6 in November after hitting 68.1 a month earlier, according to Reuters. Activity levels rose in November supported by the growing demand and ongoing projects. Further, firms attributed the improvement to elevated demand in the domestic market and a pickup in new orders from international markets, but at a slower pace than in October.

Output levels continued their expansion on the back of robust demand and new orders levels, with 30% of the surveyed businesses citing an increase in their output compared to the previous month, while only 1% recorded declines. The output subindex rose to 63.7 in November, marking the highest reading in 10 months, Reuters reported.

Despite new orders’ moderation in November that is expected to continue in December, “production growth has remained strong, supported by companies accelerating project completion ahead of year-end,” Ahmed Ramzy, Head of Specialized Research at Argaam Investments, told EnterpriseAM.

Inventory growth also saw a modest increase during November — but the weakest in three years — as firms acquired more input to fulfill rising orders.

Meanwhile, Employment remained solid but slowed down in November after hitting its quickest rise in nearly 16 years in October. Firms increased their hiring to meet elevated demand and unfinished business. However, work backlog grew for the fifth month in a row in November, marking its longest period of accumulation in six years.

Input cost inflation decelerated to an eight-month low amid a modest increase in purchase prices, “whereas wage pressures were historically sharp,” according to the report. Meanwhile, output prices edged up for the sixth month in a row, but at a slower pace.

Business sentiment: Non-oil companies expressed their most optimistic future outlook in five months during November, supported by healthy demand and new projects, according to the report. “The PMI story has been extremely positive and we think will continue running positive for at least the entirety of next year,” TS Lombard’s MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod told EnterpriseAM.

Looking ahead: Next year is expected to see non-oil growth momentum “from the continued spending capex,” despite the possibility of reducing it by nearly 2%, Al Gaaod added.

KUWAIT-

Non-oil activity in Kuwait saw further improvement in business conditions in November, boosted by higher growth in output and new orders, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). The country’s headline PMI slightly inched up to 53.4 in November, up from 52.8 in the previous month. November’s reading puts Kuwait’s non-oil private sector above the 50.0 mark for healthy growth, marking its 15th consecutive month.

Driving the expansion: “Non-oil firms in Kuwait are enjoying a positive final quarter of the year, with November seeing stronger growth across a range of variables, including output, new orders, employment, and purchasing. The familiar themes of marketing and competitive pricing were behind the latest expansions,” S&P Global’s Andrew Harker wrote in the report.

New orders climbed at the strongest level since June, supported by competitive pricing alongside marketing strategies, in addition to an increase in new export orders, according to the report. Output has maintained an upward trend for the thirty-fourth month in a row.

Input costs accelerated again in November, driven by cost increases in electricity, printing, and transportation, in addition to greater wages for the new hires and the existing staff. The staff costs and purchase prices increased more in November, compared to a month earlier. As a result, the output prices rose slightly in November, despite the inflation accelerating to a 17-month high, according to the report.

Purchasing activity increased at the fastest rate in five months, alongside inventory activity, whose accumulation rose to the largest pace for a year. The purchasing increased because firms sought to build up stocks to meet customer demand faster. However, supplier delivery times shortened during the month.

Job creation continued to rise to hit the highest rate in five months. However, it was limited and couldn’t prevent a further build-up in backlogs of work, as the outstanding business accumulation soared in November to its highest rate since June 2024. “Companies will be hoping that recent recruits can help them to get on top of workloads, otherwise more hiring may be needed in the near future,” according to Harker.

Positive sentiment: Business confidence regarding activity in the year ahead has strengthened for the third month in a row, hitting its highest level in 18 months.

“The rise in the non-oil PMI points to a stronger growth performance in 4Q, mirroring the trend seen at the end of last year. This momentum also bodes well for a pickup in business activity going into 2026, with non-oil economic growth projected at 3.3% next year,” NBK stated in a note.

QATAR-

Non-oil activity in Qatar expanded slightly in November, to hit the strongest pace since August, according to the S&P Global PMI (pdf). The country’s headline index accelerated to 51.8, up from 50.6 a month earlier, marking the 23rd consecutive month that the index has remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold. However, it was below its long-run average of 52.2 since 2017.
The growth drivers: The uptick was supported by elevated output, new orders, employment, alongside stocks of purchases, and suppliers’ delivery times.

New orders rose for the first time in six months, boosted by higher demand, market expansion, enhanced marketing, markdowns, new contracts, population growth, and company reputation. “This enabled a rise in total business activity and underpinned further strong job creation in the economy,” S&P Global’s Trevor Balchin wrote in the report.
Output inched up in November for the fifth time in the past eight months, but the rise was marginal due to a drop in construction activity.

Meanwhile, input costs dipped for the fourth month in a row, despite the higher wages and average purchase prices. “Wages remained a key source of cost pressures, although the increase in November was the slowest for a year,” Balchin noted. The rise in wages was driven by the performance-based increments, inflation, the increase in general salary, management incentives, as well as the rise in demand for experienced staff. Meanwhile, prices charged for goods and services dropped for the second consecutive month, albeit at a weaker rate from October.

Purchasing activity dipped for the first time in five months, mirroring “sufficient inventories,” according to the report. Supply chains showed further improvement in November, with firms reporting elevated competition among vendors.

Job creation accelerated to the fifth-highest in the survey’s history, supported by the hiring for sales, operations, marketing, and new projects. Employment showed an increase among the four monitored sectors, including construction, wholesale, retail, and services, and manufacturing, which edged up at a lower rate. The outstanding business in the non-oil private sector surged in the year through November.

Positive outlook: Business sentiment for activity for the year ahead remained positive, despite the drop in output and new orders rates. Companies pointed to improving market conditions, government initiatives, population growth, and the developments in investment and industry as key factors behind their positive outlook.

MEANWHILE IN EGYPT-

Egypt’s non-oil private sector rebounded to green territory in November, ending a nine-month contraction streak, boosted by a five-year uptick in new orders and output amid easing cost pressures, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index report (pdf).

The country’s headline figure surged 1.9 points to 51.1 from the month before, marking the first return to the green territory (above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction) since February and the index’s highest reading since October 2020, according to the report.

This jump indicates that 2025 could end on a positive note as a PMI reading of 51.1 historically correlates with GDP growing at an annual rate above 5%.

This rebound was underpinned by strong expansions in both output and new orders, which saw their strongest upturns in five years. Output recorded the first increase since January, with most of the business segments covered by the survey, including manufacturing, construction, and services firms, while wholesale and retail were the only sectors to report a decline in activity.

New business ended eight months of contraction, enhanced by softening cost pressures, with manufacturing, construction, and services all seeing an increase in orders from new and existing clients.

Exchange rate is a key driver of this rebound: “The improved picture in the non-oil economy was linked to strengthening demand conditions and reduced pressure on business costs as stronger exchange rates helped importers,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote.

Cost inflation hit an eight-month low in November, with businesses attributing the dip to a strengthening EGP against the USD, which decreased import costs. Meanwhile, firms noted a continuous rise in wage costs.

Consequently, selling prices saw a marginal increase during November, marking the slowest pace recorded in seven months.

Businesses scaled back their purchasing for the eighth consecutive month, albeit at a faster pace. Meanwhile, stocks of purchases stabilized during the month.

Despite the sharp uptick in activity and demand, employment remained broadly unchanged in November, extending a subdued trend seen in recent months. These stable staff levels resulted in a rise in backlogs for the third consecutive month. The robust and widespread uplift in new orders across manufacturing, construction, and services suggests that “the improvement will be sustained, which may encourage firms to raise their staffing numbers and procurement activity,” Owen said. “Output expansion and higher demand boosted businesses’ optimism, yet we think firms prefer to remain cautious given their reluctance to increase employment or accelerate their purchases of inputs,” Thndr Securities’ Esraa Ahmed told us.

Business sentiment: Non-oil private firms remain optimistic about future activity, albeit at a softer pace from October. Stronger demand was flagged by the surveyed business as a key factor for being upbeat.

Looking ahead: “We believe November sentiment is in line with our view of around 5.4% GDP growth in FY 2025-2026, which might be exceeded given a stronger recovery in sectors like extractions and Suez Canal,” Ahmed added.

Cautious optimism is required: “I hope that we can maintain this trend for three consecutive readings so that we can build a projection or outlook [for Egypt’s non-oil sector] based on it,” Economics Professor Medhat Nafei told us.

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