Global trade volumes are projected to grow at a 2.5% annualized rate from 2025 to 2029, according to a report (pdf) by DHL and New York University. Global trade was expected to grow at a 3.1% annualized rate prior to the announcement of tariffs by Washington. Most regions experienced a downward revision, with North America seeing the steepest dip, marking a drop in forecast growth from 2.7% to 1.5%, the report said.

Trade shuffled and surged in 2025: Global trade in goods saw its fastest half-year growth since 2010 — excluding the brief 2020-2021 pandemic spike — in 1H 2025, according to the report. This was caused by numerous importers rushing to secure orders before tariffs are rolled out, as well as China’s efforts to lower US-bound exports and resort to other markets. The share of US imports sourced directly from China fell, dropping to just 9% during the first seven months of 2025.

Trade is not becoming more regional: During 1H 2025, goods trade traveled some 4k km, the longest average distance on record. Meanwhile, the share of trade occurring within major world regions declined by a record drop to 50.7%. Greenfield Investment — where a parent company starts a new venture in a foreign country — has also become less regional, while mergers and acquisitions showed a decent level of regionalization, the report found.

Tags: