Good morning, nice people. It’s a brisk read this morning, with updates on infrastructure investments from Egypt, as well as new air cargo and aviation services projects from Jordan. But first, the latest update on Trump’s campaign against importers of Russian oil…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY ABROAD- Trump wants to expand tariffs push against Russian crude buyers: Trump is calling on the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian imports in a bid to pressure Russia — and is promising the US will match them if Brussels steps up. Speaking during a closed-door US-EU meeting in Washington, Trump said the West should keep the tariffs in place “until the Chinese agree to stop buying [Russian] oil.”
REMEMBER- Chinese refiners have recently ramped up purchases of Russian crude, taking advantage of reduced-price cargoes dropped by India due to US tariff pressures. The US imposed a 50% tariff on India as punishment for its Russian crude imports late last month.
The story received some attention in the int’l press: Financial Times | Reuters | CNBC | BBC
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Food imports are about to get easier in Abu Dhabi with new platform: The Abu Dhabi Agricultural and Food Safety Authority — in partnership with Abu Dhabi Customs — has launched the Golden Food Product List in a bid to streamline the clearance of food products, according to a statement. The new initiative is designed to support the influx of trade and uphold food safety standards.
The benefits for the companies: Listed firms — who demonstrate consistent conformity with approved standardized specifications and regulations through laboratory testing — will be prioritized for pre-clearance. The companies will see their products enter the local market directly — experiencing reduced custom clearance times and operational costs.
Was your internet connection affected by the cable cuts? Now we know who the likely culprit is: shallow cabling. A commercial ship’s dragged anchor is probably what led to the four severed submarine internet cables in the Red Sea, which disrupted internet in at least 10 countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, the International Cable Protection Committee’s Operations Manager John Wrottesley told the Associated Press. Shallow cabling in the area makes it prone to such damage, which causes about 30% of global faults, Director of Internet Analysts at the connectivity intelligence firm Kentik Doug Madory said.
#2- A commercial ship’s dragged anchor is probably the cause for severed undersea cables in the Red Sea, which led to internet connectivity latencies across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia since Saturday, the International Cable Protection Committee’s Operations Manager John Wrottesley told the Associated Press. Shallow cabling — known to be responsible for about 30% of global faults — makes cables in the area prone to such damage, Director of Internet Analysts at the connectivity intelligence firm Kentik Doug Madory said.
At least 10 nations felt the impact — including India, Pakistan, and the UAE, Madory said. About four cables were damaged, including the South East Asia–Middle East–Western Europe 4, the India-Middle East-Western Europe, and the Falcon GCX cables.
#3- Israel has taken its cross-border campaign against Hamas into uncharted territory, launching what it claimed to be ‘a precision airstrike’ in Doha targeting the group’s political leadership. The strike — which killed five Hamas members including the son of top negotiator Khalil Al Hayya — came as Hamas leaders gathered to discuss a US-backed ceasefire proposal. While Hamas claims senior figures survived, the attack has upended fragile truce efforts and drawn sharp condemnation from Qatar, which labeled the strike a “flagrant violation.” A Qatari security officer was among those killed, and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani warned that the talks now “lack any validity.”
Qatar said it will reserve the right to retaliate: The prime minister told reporters in a press conference (watch, runtime: 2:26) following the strikes that “Qatar is committed to act in a decisive way” against any threats to its territories and “will reserve the right to take all the needed measures to retaliate.”
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices went up this morning after the Israeli strike in Qatar and news of Trump calling on the EU to join for a bigger tariff push against buyers of Russian crude, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.35 to reach USD 66.74 / bbl by 00.33 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.36 to trade at USD 62.99 / bbl.
Meanwhile, Opec is set to lean on six members to make up for oversupply, rolling out a compensation schedule requiring the identified members to make additional supply cuts between August 2025 and June 2026 to offset overproduction, according to a statement. The total aggregate reductions range from 190k bbl / d to 829k bbl / d.
By the numbers: Kazakhstan shouldered the largest burden at 2.63 mn bbl, followed by Iraq at 1.4 mn bbl, Russia at 311k bbl, followed by the UAE at 309k bbl, followed by Oman and Kuwait at 70k and 59k, respectively, for a combined 4.8 mn bbl. The remaining OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia — were not required to make compensatory cuts.
ICYMI- Opec+ will raise output again next month, approving an additional 137k bbl / d from October as part of its accelerated rollback of supply cuts. The cartel said it will continue monthly hikes through September 2026, fast-tracking the return of 1.65 mn bbl / d that was previously set to stay offline until the end of 2026.
ALSO- The Brent-Dubai spread is set to stay negative as demand for heavier Middle Eastern grades holds firm, even with rising Opec supply, Reuters reports, citing TotalEnergies trading chief Rahim Azouni. The tighter spread has made sweeter crudes more appealing for Asian refiners relative to Middle East sour grades, while also reopening the arbitrage for US barrels to move into Asia. On Monday, the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) narrowed by USD 0.12 to USD 0.47 per barrel.
#2- The LNG market is on track to swing into oversupply from 2026, marking a sharp reversal after years of tightness following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. The International Energy Agency expects the biggest jump in liquefaction output next year since 2019. The market is set to start easing after 1Q 2026, with supply length building through late 2026 and 2027, Bloomberg reports citing BNP Paribas’ head of energy strategy Aldo Spanjer.
More than 174 mn metric tons of new capacity is currently being built, set to lift global supply to 594 mn tons a year by 2030 — a 42% increase over 2023, according to BloombergNEF. Developers have penciled in long-term demand growth as Europe replaces Russian pipeline gas and China accelerates coal-to-gas switching.
That supply surge will likely outpace consumption, with BloombergNEF projecting that supply will consistently exceed demand between 2027 and 2030. Morgan Stanley expects European and Asian gas prices to drop below USD 10 per mn British thermal units (mmbtu) by late 2026, down from an average of USD 14 last winter, while BNP Paribas sees prices slipping as low as USD 8 in 2027.
Prices at those levels could reshape trade flow. Cheaper LNG would encourage Asian utilities to substitute oil with gas and could unlock demand in South Asia and Africa, where import terminals have sat idle due to high prices. The anticipated price drop could also broaden LNG’s role in power generation and open new growth markets for producers.
#3- Baltic index maintains upwards trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — increased 3% to 2,079 points on Tuesday, its highest since 29 July, driven by the larger segments. The capesize gained 3.6% to 3,016 points, while the panamax index climbed 4.25 % to 1,923 points. The smaller supramax index rose by 0.6% to 1,473 points.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Ports and Logistics Transformation Summit on Monday, 15 September and Tuesday, 16 September in Jeddah. The summit will host over 40 global and local speakers, industry experts, and policymakers to explore smart port solutions, port operations, and logistics within Saudi Arabia.
The UAE will host the Syria Recovery and Investment Forum on Wednesday, 24 September in Abu Dhabi. The forum will host leaders in business, regional investors, policymakers, and advisory experts to develop practical solutions for Syria’s road to recovery and economic revival.
Turkey will host the Global Freight Summit on Sunday, 28 September until Wednesday, 1 October in Istanbul. The summit will host over 330 attendees and over 250 firms for policy and knowledge and strategies exchange between forwarding partners.
The UAE will host the African & Middle East & Islamic Finance Aviation 100 Awards on Monday, 29 September until Wednesday, 1 October in Dubai. The event aims to highlight and reward the most remarkable transactions closed by airlines and aviation manufacturing and leasing firms.
The UAE will host the Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference on Tuesday, 30 September until Thursday, 2 October in Abu Dhabi. The event will be hosted by Etihad Rail and is set to welcome over 200 global speakers and upwards of 20k industry attendees to share innovative solutions and develop partnerships.
Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Maritime and Logistics Congress on Wednesday, 1 October and Thursday, 2 October in Dammam. It will host over 200 registered exhibitors and some 15k attendees from over 90 countries to discuss AI-powered fleet optimization, shifts in global trade, and intelligence-driven infrastructure.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.