How KSA + UAE + Egypt’s non-oil private sectors fared in July: Purchasing manager indices (PMIs) tracking non-energy sectors showed varying results in the three countries in July, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s seeing their non-oil private activities holding in the green, albeit recording the lowest readings in many years as regional tensions hindered sales. Meanwhile, Egypt's non-oil private sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month, though the rate of decline was slower.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

SAUDI ARABIA-

Non-oil business activity in Saudi Arabia expanded at a lower pace in July, marking the slowest growth since January 2022, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally adjusted figure was 56.3 in July, down from 57.2 in June. Growth was broadly supported by increases in output, new orders, stocks of purchases, and employment — despite output and new business growth easing during the month.

Output continues growing, albeit at a slowing pace: While output expanded in July, the pace of growth was the slowest in three-and-a-half years, according to Riyad Bank. Work on existing projects and new orders helped sustain the expansion in output, but some companies noted higher competition and lower customer footfall, dampening growth. New export orders also saw a decrease for the first time in nine months, which was attributed to difficulties in acquiring new foreign clients.

Purchasing activity rises at a slower pace: Firms’ purchasing activity also rose at a slower pace in July compared to the previous month. Sizeable inventory growth was recorded, driven by gains among manufacturers and wholesale and retail firms. While delivery times were shortened, the rate of improvement eased significantly due to customs delays.

New employment levels rise to accommodate growing output: Companies responded to higher activity and new orders by hiring new staff, marking another rise in employment after June’s survey showed the fastest increase in over 14 years. The increased hiring was partly driven by an uptick in backlogs, as existing contracts and constrained capacity delayed the completion of new orders.

Cost pressures soften despite rising labor costs: Input cost inflation remained a pain point for businesses, even as they reported a “modest slowdown.” Businesses responded to the cost pressure from rising input costs by raising output prices for the second consecutive month. These markups were most prominent among services, construction, and manufacturing businesses, while wholesale and retail price adjustments were more modest, according to Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith.

Business confidence for the year ahead remained positive but softened from June’s two-year high. Overall optimism was at its lowest level since July 2024. Firms still expect output to increase, supported by steady demand, strong project pipelines, and ongoing investment tied to Vision 2030. “Employment conditions are expected to stay supportive, helping firms manage future workloads,” Al Ghaith said.

UAE-

The UAE’s non-oil private sector plunged to its lowest reading in over four years in July as regional tensions continued to hinder sales, with the S&P Global PMI (pdf) edging down to 52.9 in July, from 53.5 in June. This is its lowest level since June 2021. The downtick was driven by a further weakening in new business growth in the non-oil economy, as regional tensions weighed on client sentiment. The deceleration was also attributed to a decrease in tourism activities and disruptions in global trade.

Firms reported an uptick in new orders from the previous month — supported by client demand and a supportive price environment. However, the growth was the weakest since August 2021. The softer rise in new orders contributed to a slight easing in activity in July, further weighed down by mounting competitive pressures. “New order volumes helped firms to expand, but this trend is declining, with the latest data indicating the softest rise in incoming new work in almost four years,” Owen wrote.

On a positive note, overall output still grows at a strong pace, only slightly below the historical trend. Some businesses reported an increase in output due to new sales opportunities, higher client incomes, increased technological investment and clearing of backlogged work.

Hiring momentum at non-oil firms weakens in July, marking the slowest increase in four months. This came alongside a significant rise in outstanding business, as the backlog of unfinished work grew at its fastest rate since January amid continued difficulties in meeting work deadlines.

Input cost pressures picked up slightly at the start of 3Q this year, after falling to a 23-month low in June. This was the fastest increase in prices since April and was mainly driven by higher costs for shipping, raw materials, wages and capital. In response, firms increased their own prices, following a slight drop from June. However, this new price increase was modest.

Non-oil business optimism over future activities holds in July, anticipating stronger demand. However, confidence slightly declines as some firms are concerned over global economic uncertainty and increased competition.

… but downside risks remain elevated: “Should regional tensions ease, we may see a recovery in sales growth in the coming months. This would also be supported by the subdued price environment, with input costs rising only modestly despite the pace of increase reaching a three-month high. Nevertheless, the ongoing trends of rising competition, limited inventory, constrained hiring growth and relatively low confidence among surveyed firms suggest that downside risks remain elevated,” Owen noted.

MEANWHILE IN EGYPT-

Non-oil private sector activity declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, although the rate of decline eased from the prior month, with businesses reporting weaker rates of contraction in activity and new orders, according to S&P Global’s latest PMI report (pdf) for Egypt.

The country’s headline figure rose to 49.5 in July from 48.8 in June, inching closer toward the 50.0 neutral threshold. Yet, the index hit its joint-highest level in the past five months, reflecting only “a marginal decline” in the sector’s activity.

New orders and overall output continued to contract during the month, but at softer rates. Although the readings indicate a deterioration in business conditions, there is some reason for optimism, as many firms securing new work eased the drop in sales, Owen said. “Businesses also had the confidence to hire new staff, leading to an increase in employment for the first time in nine months, if only a fractional one,” he added.

Meanwhile, input costs rose at a less faster pace in July, with the acceleration led by an increase in purchase prices for items that include fuel, cement, and packaging. Firms also cited a mild increase in wages as a factor for the rise in input costs. “The concurrent increase in output prices was only slight, which should provide assurance that customers will not face large price swings in the near future,” Owen said.

Businesses continued to slash their input purchases for the fifth consecutive month, but at a much softer pace than June’s 11-month record cutbacks. “Supply chain conditions remained relatively stable, allowing firms to maintain stocks of purchases at broadly the same level as the month before,” the report read.

Business sentiment for the year ahead improved “only slightly” from June’s record dip, but remained “historically subdued” in July, amid concerns from the surveyed companies about demand and wider economic uncertainty.

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