Where do we stand on the switch to alternative shipping fuels? The shipping industry’s decarbonization efforts hinge on the switch, but this transition presents significant challenges in terms of cost and production timelines. Switching to alternative fuels is projected to cost 1.5-4x more than traditional fuel by 2030, according to a report (pdf) by ship classification society ClassNK, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would require the share of zero-emission fuels in shipping to rise to 25% by 2030, according to the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2023 greenhouse gasses strategy. The projection — which factors in the whole lifecycle of fuels — focuses on ships with 5k gross tonnage and above.

The alternative-fuel tradeoff: Alternative fuels entail a trade-off in the required fuel storage volume and weight on board, a major consideration for ship design and cargo capacity, the ClassNK report outlines. Ammonia and methanol contain less chemical energy by weight compared to liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a ship running on ammonia or methanol will require roughly double the amount of conventional fuel for the same route. In numerical terms, a little over 1k tons of ammonia or methanol are needed for a route otherwise fueled by 420 tons of LNG or 435 tons of liquefied petroleum gas.

In cost terms: The price gap is expected to narrow over time as production swells and new incentive policies and legislation are introduced. The transition to alternative fuels will likely bring about a rise in shipbuilding and fuel costs, and a drop in regulation-associated costs, thanks to new rules expected to be adopted by the IMO.

Massive investments in greener shipbuilding and fuel production will be needed to meet the target, which would require production to reach around 106 mn tons for green methanol or 114 mn tons for green ammonia. The world’s shipping fleet would also need to ramp up the uptake of greener ships to reach a cumulative capacity of 352 mn gross tonnage.

REMEMBER- The IMO is set to ratify its net-zero framework next October, introducing new fuel standards and a global pricing mechanism for emissions in the shipping industry. If ratified, changes will take effect by 2027 and apply to ships over 5k gross tons, covering 85% of international shipping emissions. The framework draft was passed in April with support from 63 countries and 16 voting against it, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

What’s the status in our region? Oman’s Sohar Port planned last year to adopt biofuelbunkering for its tugboat operations, following successful trials with the B20 blend — a formula consisting 20% biofuel, 80% diesel. The adoption of biofuel is expected to help the port lower its greenhouse gas emissions towards an initial target of 17% to conform to the country’s net-zero 2050 goal.

Fujairah Port is also on the job: Over in the UAE, Fujairah Port will see methanol and LNG dominating its alternative bunker fuels, with biofuels and ammonia following, Reuters reported in 2023, citing an online poll at the Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum. Dutch firm Vopak supplied itsfirst biofuel for ship use at its terminal in Fujairah.

Other regional players are lining up interest: Adnoc Logistics and Services aims to significantly boost the supply of alternative marine fuels within the UAE and wider region through its subsidiary Integr8 Fuels, CEO Abdulkareem Al Masabi told S&P Global last week. This strategic move will be crucial for decarbonizing the Middle East’s bunker mix.

Other possible first movers in the region:

  • Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) was looking to roll out green methanol bunkering services before the initially expected launch date of 2027. Shipping behemoth Maersk reportedly held talks with the SCZone for bunkering services to fuel its green methanol-powered vessels in 2022.
  • Oman’s state-backed Asyad Group signed a joint study agreement late last year with energy firm OQ Alternative Energy and Sumitomo Corporation Middle East to ascertain the country’s potential to become a low-carbon fuel bunkering hub.
  • The UAE’s AD Ports Group signed an agreement this month with Masdar, Advario, and CMA CGM to explore developing an e-methanol bunkering and export facility at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port and Kezad.
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