Good morning, folks. We’re back this week with an issue packed with debt updates from Morocco and the UAE. Aviation industry updates are also all over the news, with new jet orders and delivery updates from the UAE and KSA. But first, an update on China’s tariff carveouts…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- China carves out tariff exemptions for some US imports: China has reportedly suspended its 125% tariff on certain US goods over the weekend in the latest sign of de-escalation between the world’s two biggest economies. The exemption has covered some US-made microchips and chip-making tech, jet parts like landing gear and engines, and medical products. The country is also reportedly studying further targeted exemptions to support industries reliant on US-made input.

A page from the US’ playbook: China’s move follows news that Trump is considering slashing China’s tariffs by more than half, the Wall Street Journal reported in an exclusive last week. The US has also decided to spare car parts from tariffs applied on China and steel and aluminum-linked tariffs, in a “de-stacking” of tariffs, the Financial Times reports. “As a quid-pro-quo move, it could provide a potential way to de-escalate tensions,” think tank China Center’s senior advisor Alfredo Montufar-Helu told Reuters.

This story grabbed a lot of ink in int’l press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | WSJ | CNN | The Washington Post | New York Times | The Guardian

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- A huge explosion erupted at Iran’s largest commercial port Shahid Rajaei on Saturday evening, sparking a fire that raged through Sunday morning, AP News reports. At present, 28 people have been reported killed and another 800 injured, state media outlet IRNA reports. The port is in the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of all oil traded passes.

It’s a guessing game: The explosion is likely linked to the mishandling of a shipment of solid fuel “intended for use in Iranian ballistic missiles,” the newswire reports, citing a private security firm called Ambrey. Footage of the incident showed reddish-hued smoke rising just before the blast — suggesting a chemical compound was involved. Iran has denied the imported fuel explosive allegations.

#2- US requests free Suez Canal passage: American President Donald Trump is demanding that American military and commercial vessels pass the Suez Canal and Panama Canal “free of charge,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Saturday. “I’ve asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to immediately take care of, and memorialize, this situation,” Trump said.

Umm, what is this about? It is unclear what this request is about, but it could have more to do with countering Chinese influence than the cost of the Suez Canal. The request could also be seen in the light of senior US’ officials' leaked Signal conversation, in which they appeared to lament the US’ inability to bring Europe and Egypt to pay for the US campaign against Houthis.

Outrage at the suggestion: To say that Trump’s statement sparked outrage, condemnation, and even mockery across Egypt’s airwaves last night. The Suez Canal “is a national symbol that is not up for negotiation,” retired army general and strategic affairs expert Wael Rabie told Al Sa’aa Al Sadesa’s Azza Mostafa (watch, runtime: 7:20). Rabie emphasized that some 120k Egyptians died during the canal’s construction, highlighting that it was also financed entirely by Egyptians. Others blasted the remarks as a blatant violation of international law, including international law expert Mohamed Mahran on Ahmed Moussa’s Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 6:36).

IN OTHER GEOPOLITICALLY LINKED NEWS- Maersk fesses up to shipping arms to Israel: Global shipping giant Maersk has confirmed it has been shipping parts for F35 military aircraft to Israel, the company told Al Jazeera last week. The admission comes months after the firm repeatedly denied such involvement, with its CEO Vincent Clerc insisting last March that the company adheres to a “policy of not shipping weapons or ammunitions into any active conflict zone.”

Mincing words? The company attempted to defend its position by saying that the shipments are not delivered to the Israeli Defense Ministry, but rather are bound for other parties in Israel.

Maersk’s Israel arms shipments drew calls for boycotts in Morocco last week on the grounds that the Danish company is contributing to an ongoing genocide against Palestinians.

#3- Saudi Arabia sets its eyes on South Africa’s ports: Saudi port operator Red Sea Gateway Terminal International (RSGTI) is set to make an offer of more than USD 600 mn for South Africa’s Durban port, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The group also expressed interest in Cape Town’s port should a tender come up, Bloomberg reported, citing RSGTI’s director of global investments Gagan Seksaria. “South African container terminals represent some of the most attractive investment opportunities in the sector globally,” Seksaria said.

Saudi interest doesn’t end there: Jeddah-based Zahid Group has relaunched talks with Barloworld shareholders to boost its stake in the firm — the continent's sole distributor of Caterpillar equipment. Saudi Arabian Oil Co is also in the running to acquire Shell Plc’s downstream operations in South Africa for around USD 1 bn — a purchase that would cover Shell’s aviation, marine, construction and road, trading and supply, commercial fuels, lubricants, and fuel stations in the country.

#4- UAE eyes USD 6 bn India grid link to export surplus clean power: The UAE is pushing ahead with plans to export electricity to India via a subsea high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable that could cost up to USD 6 bn, the Energy Ministry’s director of electricity and trade Adnan Al Hosani told AGBI last week. The two countries have been in talks since 2023 over the interconnector project, which is now undergoing feasibility studies.

In context: The link is part of a broader strategy to monetize the Emirates’ growing spare generation capacity — currently around 50% — driven by major solar and nuclear investments. The country’s clean energy output is also expected to nearly double by 2030, Al Hosani said, backed by large-scale projects like the 5.6 GW Barakah nuclear plant and the Noor Abu Dhabi solar project. The country has emerged as a regional leader in renewables, with 6.3 GW of installed capacity, as well as 3.5 GW in under-construction projects.

IN OTHER UAE UPDATES- New deliveries boost Emirates fleet: Emirates received four Airbus A350 carriers this month and is expecting to uptake four more in May and one or two in June, the airline’s COO Adel Reda told CNBC last week on the sidelines of Dubai Artificial Intelligence Week 2025. Deliveries from the airline's current order from Boeing are also forecasted to start trickling in by the end of 2026, he added.

SOUND FAMILIAR? Dubai’s flagship carrier tapped HSBC last month as its sole senior arranger and original lender to finance the purchase of the four additional Airbus A350-900 jets.

REMEMBER- Emirates has invested nearly USD 5 bn to upgrade its existing aircraft — including the Airbus A380 jumbo and the Boeing 777 — to work around delays in new aircraft models on order.

#5- Egypt’s Misr Tugboat Factory has delivered two new tugboats to the Suez Canal Authority, the first two in a 10-vessel order, according to a statement released last week. The tugboats — AZM 1 and AZM 2 — have a pulling force of 90 tons each. The facility also aims to increase its production capacity to two boats every three months. The SCA is working on expanding its tugboat fleet, with plans to uptake two new tugboats from the Alexandria shipyard soon, Chairman Ossama Rabiee said without giving a date.

REMEMBER- The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) and Red Sea Shipyard Company opened atugboat manufacturing factory in Safaga last year. The factory, spanning an area of 9k sqm, aims to localize Egypt’s manufacturing capabilities and support national service projects.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went up this morning despite chatter about a possible Opec+ production hike and global uncertainty on trade and oil demand, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures rose by USD 0.22 to USD 67.09 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) went up by USD 0.24 to reach USD 63.26 a barrel by 04.29 GMT.

What do we know about Opec+ plans? Several Opec+ members are expected to push for a faster increase in oil production in June as disagreements grow over some countries defying their output quotas, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing three sources who are familiar with the talks. Eight Opec+ members will meet on 5 May to decide on the June output plan, with some members eying a similar output hike to the May output plan of 411k barrels per day (bbl / d).

Some are against the move: A few members — including Russia — favor slower, more gradual output increases to avoid putting pressure on prices, two separate Opec+ sources told the newswire.

ICYMI- Kazakhstan’s new Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov stated last week that the country will prioritize its own needs when deciding on oil production levels, even if it goes against Opec+.

#2- Baltic index largely steady: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose by 1.5% to 1,373 points on Friday. The capesize leaped up 2.3% to 1,889 points, while the panamax index was up by 1.5% to 1,392. The smaller supramax index dipped by one point to 977.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index fell by 2% to USD 2,157 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are at their lowest since January 2024 and 79% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 52% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 2,854 per 40ft container, which is USD 38 lower than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,891.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Qatar’s Hamad International Airport saw an 11.1% y-o-y increase in cargo movements in FY 2024, according to aviation trade association Airports Council International (ACI) World. The rise brought the size of cargo handled in the airport to some 2.6 mn tons in FY 2024, making it the world’s eighth busiest airport for cargo.

#2- Global container port volumes are forecasted to drop 1% in 2025 due to US trade policies, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing data from maritime consultancy Drewry. This drop would mark the third time shipping volumes have shrunk since 1979. The drop would be powered by shrinking US containerized import cargo volume, which is expected to fall at least 20% y-o-y in 2H 2025, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing the US National Retail Federation.

What Drewry said: “Assuming that two-thirds of current tariffs remain in place, US imports from China could fall by 40%,” Drewry said. With Chinese imports dominating consumer and industrial products in the US, the redirection of Chinese production to countries with lower tariffs could potentially offset a portion of the decline in shipping demand.

Case in point: German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd saw 30% of its shipments from China to the US canceled, a spokesperson told Reuters on Wednesday. However, the China-US drop was counteracted by a huge influx in demand for consignments from Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Airport Show on Tuesday, 6 May to Thursday, 8 May in Dubai. The event will show products and technology for the airport industry from over 160 international suppliers and manufacturers across 20 countries. It will also provide a platform for networking with key players across seven airport sectors.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics trade fair on Monday, 12 May to Thursday, 15 May in Riyadh. The event will provide insights into the latest international and local technology, solutions, equipment providers, and sustainable workflow practices within the logistics industry in the country.

The UAE will host the Global Ports Forum on Tuesday, 13 May to Wednesday, 14 May in Dubai. The forum will cover topics such as port strategy and development, port automation, finance, and efficiency.

The UAE will host the Seamless Middle East from Tuesday, 20 May to Thursday, 22 May in Dubai. The event will cover topics including digital marketing, e-commerce, and retail and merchant payments.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.