Trump tariffs to hit our region unequally: The GCC region, Sudan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt got off relatively lightly with Trump’s 10% baseline levy. However, not everyone in the region was as fortunate, with Syria set to face a 41% tariff, Iraq a 39% tariff, Libya a 31% tariff, Algeria a 30% tariff, Tunisia a 28% tariff, and Jordan a 20% tariff.

Beyond our region, China was hit with a 34% levy, bringing the total tariff on Chinese imports to 54%. The US tariffs also targeted the EU with 20%, Vietnam with 46%, and Taiwan with 32%.

The move is set to ignite a global trade war after decades of liberal trade measures from the US, with trading partners widely expected to retaliate. Beijing led the pack with a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US, with the EU expected to follow soon, whereas other countries, such as Vietnam, are attempting to negotiate their way out of the measures, Reuters reported.

THE REGIONAL IMPACT-

Some think that the decision could boost exports for countries like Egypt, with its 10% comparatively low tariff rate possibly increasing its competitiveness and attracting investors seeking to bypass higher tariff rates elsewhere like China, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. Egyptian Businessmen Association Chairman Ali Issa mirrored this view, pointing to garments as a sector — the largest source of US-bound exports — that has the potential to take advantage of the situation by upping its exports to the US.

Over in the GCC area, the higher tariffs could also offer “a relative competitive advantage,” GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM. “It's not a good outcome that universal tariffs are now part of how the US is financing itself, but [Gulf] leaders may take it as a partial success that they ended up in this lowest tier of most friendly countries in this new rubric,” founder of advisory firm Ziemba Insights Rachel Ziemba told the National. On the downside, the fact that the GCC is only getting off with a 10% tariff means there is likely “little scope for individual negotiation,” Alexander told us.

For the UAE, most economists agree that the impact on the country’s trade will be limited, since the US is a smaller market for exports. However, a “recalibration of global trade flows” is expected, which will have an impact on companies with complex global operations like DP World, Alexander said. “The UAE’s role as a bastion of freetrade will add to its appeal as an investment destination in an uncertain world,” Alexander added. Furthermore, leading UAE export-oriented industries like aluminum and jewellery are expected to survive the impact, given the “high-profit margins associated with precious stones and jewellery, and the UAE's status as a low-cost producer of aluminium”, chief economist at Commercial Bank of Dubai Deepak Mehra told the National.

The same goes for Saudi Arabia: The direct impact of US tariffs on Saudi trade is likely to be limited, given the relatively modest volume of Saudi exports to the US market, Al Mal Chief Investment Officer Faisal Hasan told Asharq Business. “As for economic activity in the region, it may not be significantly affected because the region's exports to the United States are not as strong as those seen in Canada, Mexico, and China,” he said.

Inflation risks, however, are up: The tariffs are also expected to drive up inflation, leading to higher-for-longer interest rates in the US and the rest of the GCC, which could result in outflows of investments from emerging markets, according to EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha. “The shock to sentiment and capital flows is likely to endure and requires higher risk premia,” Investment bank JP Morgan said in a note seen by Reuters, while downgrading its position on emerging market currencies to “underweight.”

SHIPPING COMPANIES ARE BRACING FOR IMPACT-

As companies rush to ship goods to the US before the tariffs hit, freight costs have surged dramatically, with Pharma and hardware firms reportedly paying a 40% premium on US-bound shipments from China, the Financial Times reported on Friday. The average cost of flying cargo from China on short notice also surged 37% to USD 4.14 per kg throughout March, despite a steady decline since the Christmas season peak.

Demand for shipping services could also take a hit, as the levies drive the prices of automotive and essential items, stymying demand and the flow of goods, shipping giant Nippon Yusen’s President Takaya Soga told Reuters last week. This will result in a tightening of ship demand and contribute to higher freight costs, Soga said.

Shippers are not happy: Shipping giants Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have raised alarms over the oncoming tariffs, Reuters reported here and here. Hapag-Lloyd expects rippling effects on demand, cargo flows, and costs, and is preparing for a possible readjustment of its service network as a result. The US plan “clearly isn't good news” for the “global economy, stability and trade,” Maersk said. The aforementioned firms as well as DSV, KNIN, and DHL recently saw stock share losses after the tariff announcements, Hellenic Shipping reports.

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