Despite major global disruptions including escalating trade wars, pandemic aftershocks, and regional conflicts, global trade volumes have remained resilient, according to a recent DHL trade report (pdf). However, recently expanded trade sanctions may expedite global policy changes, so what’s on the horizon in the year to come as trade dynamics shift swiftly?

The current lay of the land: The global outlook remains significantly resilient in the face of global disruptions on the back of e-commerce expansion, new tech, and increased regional trade. New emerging markets — particularly in Asia and the Middle East — are playing an imperative role in global trade dynamics, but the risk of economic fragmentation due to geopolitical rivalries could potentially have a long-term impact on trade stability and overall global trade expansion.

The big guns: US President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies have been marked by an unprecedented wave of tariffs — slapping levies on steel, aluminum, alcohol, and lumber — in a tit-for-tat dynamic with countries like China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. The timing, details, and extent of global impact of these tariffs and policy changes remains to be unseen as some are still subject to negotiation between the US and its trade partners.

The infamous Chinese loophole: While direct US imports from China are declining, the overall reliance on Chinese-manufacture goods remains largely significant. Trump ended a tariff loophole used by Chinese firms back in February which saw Chinese firms shipping goods in bulk into Mexico and breaking them into small packages to enter the US in a bid to circumvent duties that are normally applied to larger shipments. Chinese companies — including Temu and Shein — shipped USD 46 bn worth of small packages to the US, with China reporting nearly USD 23 bn worth of these exports last year

Stepping into the vacuum: The UAE, Vietnam and Ireland have emerged as top countries in global trade growth — excelling in both speed and scale between 2019-2024. The UAE came in fifth place, accounting for nearly 1.7% of global trade in 2024, with an average compound trade volume growth of 6.9% throughout the period. Vietnam ranked sixth place on the scale dimension and 22 on speed, while Ireland came in at number 13 on scale and 17 for its speed. India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are also forecast to lead in trade growth from 2024 to 2029.

E-commerce is stimulating growth: E-commerce is rapidly reshaping global trade — with tech advancements driving the expansion of trade services. Cross-border e-commerce sales have grown by nearly 53% over a six-year period to 2.9 tn in 2022, according to the DHL report.The growth of cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue, with forecasts predicting annual growth rates of 15-25% over the next five-10 years.

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