Egypt’s steel exports brace for a rough year: Egyptian steel Industry insiders are forecasting a likely decline in local producers’ revenues as a result of rising global trade wars and tariffs on steel exports, the head of the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ Metallurgical Industries Chamber Mohamed Hanafi told EnterpriseAM.

The lay of the land: Ongoing EU concerns over steel dumping in the bloc — coupled with the Trump administration’s apparent willingness to pick any trade war fight — paint a concerning picture for Egypt’s steel industry in the years ahead. The US imposed a 25% tariff on all steel imports earlier this month, while the European Commission announced a 15.6% temporary tariff on hot rolled coil imports from Egypt starting 7 April, pending a final decision in October.

Egyptian Steel exports are already on the down, falling 4% y-o-y in 2024 to USD 2.3 bn, according to official data from the Export Council for Building Materials seen by EnterpriseAM. US tariffs under Donald Trump’s first term have already weakened exports, ElMarakby Steel Chairman Hassan Elmarakby told EnterpriseAM. The outlook could get worse if the recent US and European tariffs persist, Elmarakby added.

The US dropped from fourth to sixth place among Egypt’s steel export markets last year, with purchases falling to USD 126.6 mn from USD 230 mn in 2022. Italian and Spanish imports also declined significantly, falling 43% y-o-y to USD 185 mn and 42% y-o-y to USD 225 mn, respectively.

More export barriers could also be coming our way, with Turkey and the UK considering import quotas for Egyptian steel. Turkey, which was Egypt’s top steel importer last year, imported USD 256 mn worth of steel, while the UK imported USD 39 mn.

What about alternative markets? While steelmakers have long sought to diversify exports, South American and African economies cannot absorb Egypt’s large output, Hanafi told EnterpriseAM. Kenya was the top African importer last year, purchasing a comparatively small USD 27.5 mn worth of steel, while South Africa’s imports dropped from USD 162 mn a decade ago to just USD 26k last year.

Thankfully, Arab markets and Brazil offer some hope, with exports to Saudi Arabia growing 150% y-o-y to USD 108 mn in 2024, while Libyan imports rose 151% y-o-y to USD 48 mn, and Lebanese imports increased 2% y-o-y to USD 62 mn. Brazil saw the highest value growth last year, with its steel imports jumping 283% y-o-y to USD 149 mn, making it Egypt’s fifth-largest steel buyer.

The local steel industry is running well below capacity, with the country’s annual production rarely exceeding 10 mn tons, despite annual capacity standing at 16 bn tons, an industry insider told EnterpriseAM. The high capacity sector — thanks to roughly EGP 250 bn in investments — is constrained by weak domestic demand due to 2021 government restrictions on construction, which have only just been overturned, and export constraints.

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