Good morning, nice people. We are starting this week with an issue heavily-packed with M&A watch news from the UAE, as well as trade, aviation, and ports updates from across the region. Let’s get the ball rolling.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- US launches probe into Suez Canal, other global shipping chokepoints: The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has launched an investigation into global maritime chokepoints — including the Suez Canal — to assess whether foreign governments or shipping operators are creating conditions unfavorable to US shipping and trade, according to an investigation order published Friday on the Federal Register. The commission is seeking comments until 13 May regarding the causes of constraints in the global checkpoints, which also include the English Channel, the Malacca Strait, the Northern Sea Passage, the Singapore Strait, the Panama Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar.

Why the Suez Canal? The waterway — which handles 10-12% of global trade — is a focal point of concern for the US administration, because “its narrow width and single-lane format often leads to delays, especially during peak seasons,” according to the investigation order. The commission also pointed out that its shallow depth “makes it prone to weather-related issues, further increasing the risk of accidents,” citing the 2021 Ever Given crisis. The commission also highlighted security risks stemming from ongoing conflicts, including that involving the Houthis and the war in Gaza, on top of “threats from piracy and terrorism,” the document read.

What could this mean: The FMC has been given the authority to take corrective action if the investigation proves unfavorable conditions in shipping, Former FMC lawyer Lauren Beagen told Bloomberg, including blocking access to US ports or a USD 1 mn fee per voyage for foreign-flagged vessels. This could limit “firms’ ability to participate in FMC-filed agreements including alliances.”

IN OTHER EGYPT-RELATED NEWS- Gov’t is in talks with the US’ Excelerate Energy over a possible lease of floating storage and regasification units, according to a statement released on Thursday. The talks took place between Egypt’s Oil Minister Karim Badawi and Excelerate Energy’s CEO Steven Kobos during a meeting in which they also discussed sharing technical expertise and LNG trade cooperation, according to a separate statement.

In line with larger plans: Egypt is set to resume its natural gas imports next month, seizing on a moment of lower global gas prices due to waning European demand, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM. The move comes amid a gov’t push to redevelop its strategic gas reserve — leveraging newly secured infrastructure and LNG supply agreements, the source added. The country aims to import 155-160 shipments of LNG this year to close the gap between demand and supply. Egypt reportedly needs around 6.2 bn cubic feet per day (bcf/d), but domestic production only contributes 4.4 bcf/d.

On the cards: Egypt is expected to receive four LNG shipments by April — with projections of an increase in imports between five to six shipments per month during the summer period due to a rise in consumption levels due to high temperatures, the source noted. Egypt has reportedly contracted at least five regasification units at present — with forecasts pointing to boosted shipments of imported gas and an increased flow of Israeli gas entering the country to meet growing demand from the industrial sector.

Hopes are high for new local discoveries: The country still has a long-term objective to become a net LNG exporter once again and has so far avoided long-term contracts despite current favorable prices in hope of new natural gas discoveries that could put Egypt once again on the global export map. “We hope that [natural gas] discoveries and increased production will contribute to reducing demand for imported gas by next year,” the source added.

#2- Washington hits Iran with a fresh wave of sanctions: The US has slapped sanctions on Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, a number of vessels, and three companies linked with its shadow oil operations, according to statements published on Thursday here, here, and here. The US targeted Paknejad for supervising the Islamic Republic’s export of crude and designating bns of greenback worth of oil to Iran’s armed forces for export.

The vessels in question? The newly-designated vessels include the Hong Kong-flagged Peace Hill, Iran-flagged Polaris 1, Panama-flagged Corona Fun, and the San Marino-flagged Seasky, Reuters reports.

The third salvo: The move marks the Trump Administration’s third strike on Iranian crude since the signing of a “maximum pressure” campaign in February. The sanctions aim to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero to cripple its alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon and its funding of what the US designates as terrorism abroad, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

Warning Tehran: US President Donald Trump has ordered aerial attacks on Houthi targets and threatened Tehran over its funding of the group, according to a statement on Truth Social published on Saturday. Trump vowed to continue the strikes until the Houthis cease their attacks on US and US-allied commercial and naval vessels navigating the Red Sea — an issue that has disturbed the waterway in 2024.

IN OTHER SANCTION UPDATES- The delivery time of a Russian oil tanker has increased sevenfold due to US sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The Russian vessel — the Daba — delivered 2 mn barrels of Sokol crude to China after a voyage of more than seven weeks, notably much longer than its usual one-week delivery time. Although unsanctioned by the US, the tanker underwent ship-to-ship transfers and received shipments from vessels that were themselves targeted by the US’ sweeping addition of around 180 tankers in January.

#3- Chevron eyes Middle East for crude: American oil and gas firm Chevron is reportedly looking for the Middle East for crude supplies as they look for alternatives of Venezuelan oil to keep its refineries humming, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. Chevron — which was given a 30-day window to stop their Venezuela operations after a Trump order — is also looking into sourcing crude from Mexico and Brazil.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went up on Monday morning in the wake of US airstrikes on the Yemen-based Houthis, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.41 to USD 70.99 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged by USD 0.40 to USD 67.58 a barrel by 03.36 GMT.

ALSO- Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecasts for oil prices in 2026, citing projections of higher supplies from Opec+ and a slowed down oil demand, Reuters reports. The financial institution now predicts WTI to trade at USD 67 and Brent crude at USD 71 by December 2025, almost USD 5 below its previous projections.

IN REGIONAL OIL MARKET NEWS- Saudi Aramco is expected to ship between 34-36 mn bbl of oil to China next month, the lowest amount since June 2024, Bloomberg reports, noting that there is no clarity on whether the decline is due to lower demand or reduced supply. The expected decline is reportedly partly due to maintenance at China’s Sinopec-owned refineries, reducing processing capacity by 700k barrels per day (bbl / d) from mid-March to May, Reuters reported, citing trade sources.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia was looking to boost its oil exports to Asia — particularly China and India — in a race against Russia to uptake a larger share of the region’s market, after Opec+ decided to gradually increase output earlier this month. Aramco also lowered its crude oil prices for Asian buyers in April for the first time in three months, cutting Arab Light by USD 0.40 to USD 3.50 a barrel above Omani and Dubai average prices.

#2- Baltic index on an upwards trend: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 19 points to 1,669 on Friday. The capesize dipped 36 points to 2,857, while the panamax index gained 65 points to 1,365, a five-month high. The smaller supramax index rose by 35 points to 930.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index decreased 7% to USD 2,368 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are at their lowest since January 2024 and 77% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 67% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,205 per 40ft container, which is USD 321 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,884.

#4- The US is set to see long-term growth in LNG demand despite a lack of pipeline capacity for natural gas, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing industry executives. Government entities are forecasting a rise in domestic gas consumption to 105.5 bn cubic ft per day (cf/d) in 2025 and 107.6 bn cf/d in 2026, up from 102.3 bn cf/d in 2024. The critical insufficiency of pipelines — which resulted in a 35% rise in stateside electricity costs — is not expected to deter LNG capacity growth, which is predicted to almost double between 2024-2028.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Oman saw its trade balance surplus decline 3.4% y-o-y, reaching OMR 7.5 bn at the close of 2024, according to preliminary statistics released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information. The country’s commodity exports rose 6.8% y-o-y to reach OMR 24.2 bn in the same period, which is primarily attributable to an 18.4% y-o-y incline in Oman’s oil and gas exports — valued at OMR 16 bn at year-end.

#2- The total value of re-exported goods from Saudi Arabia increased 42.3% y-o-y to SAR 90 bn in 2024, with smartphones accounting for 27.5% of re-exported goods, according to Gastat data seen by Aleqtisadiah. Ships (13.4%), lightships (12.1%), cars (4.3%), and tugboats (3.9%) followed.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations, and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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