How would Trump’s trade war impact the US oil and gas exports? The mounting trade war between the US and China — one of the world’s major importers of US crude and gas — is set to reshuffle US energy exports flow and could risk halting the US’ LNG growth in the long term, Reuters reported last week here and here.

REMEMBER- China slapped a 15% levy on US LNG and 10% on US crude imports in response to the US imposing a 10% duty on Chinese exports.

By the numbers: China imports 166k bpd of US crude, almost 5% of the US oil exports. For LNG, the US supplied China with nearly 4.3 mn tons in 2024, almost 5.5% of China’s LNG imports, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data.

Redirected: Losing China — a major export market — could see the US shifting its LNG exports to Europe and its crude oil to European, Indian, and domestic refineries at competitive prices.

But there’s a caveat: Europe is unlikely to be a reliable long-term LNG importer compared to Chinese and Asian markets, which were projected to be major growth markets for LNG producers with a projected demand of 200 mn tons in 2028 — almost double the current demand. For Europe, the demand is expected to dip from 507 mn cbm in 2023 to between 281 and 407 cbm by 2035 — as it moves to renewable energy sources in its bid to shore up its energy security. As for the crude oil market, China has grown more favorable to cheaper Russian, Canadian, and Iranian crude — prioritizing cheaper markets, but US crude producers are likely to find other reliable takers domestically and internationally.

China likely to emerge unscathed: The impact on China might not be as severe given its limited dependence on US crude. As of 2024, US crude only accounted for 1.7% of the country’s total crude imports, and the country has increased its imports from Canada by 30% to over 500k bpd.

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