What the future holds for the global maritime sector in 2025: There are significant shifts on the horizon for the maritime industry with the anticipated disbandment of the 2M alliance between MSC and Maersk next February. The disbandment marks the end of a 10-year alliance, but the shifts also hold promise for a number of new strategic partnerships bound to influence international trade and the maritime industry.

What we’re looking out for: The first weeks of 2025 present several potential challenges to the supply chain that could further strain capacity including a potential strike on the US East and Gulf coasts on 15 January ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration and Chinese New Year. The maritime sector is also anticipating the commencement of both the Gemini Cooperation and the Premier Alliance on 1 February.

Out with the old, in with the new: The restructuring will impact trade lanes, adjust capacity, and redefine how shipping giants partner up to optimize operations and reduce costs. So, who’s partnered up with who?

#1- Premier Alliance: The Premier Alliance is a tripartite alliance between Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM, and Yang Ming that aims to offer end-to-end direct port container services across the transpacific trade route and Asia-Europe trade lanes. The five-year alliance will focus on key East-West trade lanes, including Asia-Europe, Asia-North America, and Asia-Mediterranean routes. The partnership will provide nearly 80 direct portcalls designed to boost network service to meet customer needs. Premier Alliance will also partnerwith MSC in the Asia-Europe trade starting February 2025, offering nine services that aim to boost direct port coverage and vessel sailings.

#2- The Gemini Cooperation: Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk entered into a new long-term collaboration — dubbed Gemini Cooperation — that aims to offer a flexible and interconnected ocean network with industry-leading schedule reliability above 90% for service under the Gemini umbrella of trades in its first phase. The partnership was announced back in January, but the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) held up thelaunch in July pending the divulgence of additional information needed to determine the venture’s competitive impact.

The Gemini Cooperation started accepting cargo bookings on 3 December, and updated its trade brochure, service details, and schedules for the upcoming bookings.

More routes: The Gemini Cooperation is also set on providing alternative networks to their operations if Red Sea disruptions continue, which would see both shipping giants either returning to the Trans Suez Canal or continuing the alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope. They are also adding an East-West Service Network in 2025 to connect cargo across key trade routes, and are phasing in the Cape of Good Hope Network in February 2025. The network will boast 29 mainline services, 28 shuttles, and around 340 vessels with a total capacity of 3.7 mn TEUs.

Going big: The Gemini Cooperation chose DP World-operated London Gateway port as its UK hub back in November, exiting Felixstowe port in a bid to tap into more single operator routes and less port calls per service. The change will most affect the Asia-Europe trades, while the Middle East-Europe (London Gateway) and Trans-Atlantic (Southampton) Gemini services will remain unchanged. Oman’s Salalah Port will also join the new network to boost its container throughput at the port.

#3- The Ocean Alliance: The Ocean Alliance — launched in 2017 — comprises COSCO Shipping, Evergreen Line, CMA CGM, and OOCL. The group has signed an extension of its agreement to March 2032. The Ocean Alliance members currently operate vessels with a capacity of about 8.4 million TEUs which is 29.6% of global container capacity.

#4- MSC is a one-man show: Italy’s MSC is emerging as an independent carrier with its decision to operate independently on the back of maintaining flexibility and control over its services. MSC’s newly announced network covers five trades with 34 routes, including seven for Asia-North Europe and six for Asia-Mediterranean, four for Asia-North America West Coast, six for Asia-North America East Coast, and 11 for the transatlantic trade.

No stepping back: MSC adjusted its Freight All Kinds (FAK) freight rates to all Far East ports, Mediterranean ports, and Black Sea ports. The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) added a new shipping service by MSC — dubbed the Turkey to Red Sea Express Service — connecting Jeddah Islamic Port with key ports in Turkey and Jordan with a 6k TEU capacity. Egypt’s House of Representatives has approved a public-private partnership (PPP) with Medlog, a subsidiary of MSC to finance, design, construct, exploit, and maintain a dry port and logistics center in the Tenth of Ramadan City.

What does it mean for global trade? The alliances are designed to provide more efficiency and reliability in a bid to produce lower shipping costs and faster transit times for cargo. The emergence of new alliances insinuates plausible changes in shipping schedules, routes, and available capacity. The Premier Alliance and MSC’s expanded role will likely lead to the introduction of new routes and services, in a bid to offer more flexibility for freight owners. These alliances are also poised to help companies share their resources, combine fleets, and bolster connections on important trade routes.

A new era of competition: The container shipping landscape is set to yield new dynamics for global shipping, with the formation of new alliances that are projected to create a more competitive environment in the industry. The Ocean Alliance — which is the only one to remain the same — will bag the lion’s share based on its fleet size and market share. Gemini Cooperation is anticipated to be a close contender, followed by MSC’s solo venture. The Premier Alliance is anticipated to rank in fourth place, but overall competitiveness will remain robust on the back of fleet expansions and strategic partnerships.

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