Good morning, folks. It’s a big day for KSA and Saudia as Boeing gets left in the dust…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Saudia splashes out at Future Aviation Forum: Saudi Arabia’s national flag carrier Saudia has made the country’s largest-ever aircraft order by placing an order for 105 narrow-body aircraft from Airbus. The order, worth USD 19 bn, will add more A320neo aircraft to Saudi’s fleet.

The story grabbed ink in the int’l press: Bloomberg | Reuters | Associated Press | AFP | CNN | The Telegraph

^^ We have all the details on this story and more in the news well, below.

FROM THE DEPT. OF SILVER LININGS- Djibouti is benefiting from its location as a “hub of stability” amid turmoil in the Red Sea, Bloomberg reports. The country’s container port has seen a boost in activity following Houthi-led attacks in the region, as vessels from Asia dock and unload goods for transshipment through the Suez Canal via smaller vessels. The port has also allowed warships from the EU’s Aspides mission to refuel and use its facilities, while hosting damaged merchant vessels for repairs. The small African nation is attempting to balance a neutral stance however, and has recently turned down an American request to launch operations against the Houthis from its soil, Bloomberg said.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Could ADIA’s consortium revise its bid for Malaysia Airports? The takeover bid by a consortium comprising Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIP, and Malaysian state players Khazanah Nasional Berhad and Employees Provident Fund could be “too opportunistic” and might need to be revised, Ross Cameron, a portfolio manager at Northcape — which owns a 1.7% stake in the airport operator — told Bloomberg.

REMEMBER- The consortium offered to pay MYR 11 (USD 2.34) per share for 67% of the company in a bid to take it private, representing a 15% premium over Malaysia Airports’ three-month volume-weighted average price and valuing it at USD 3.9 bn

One analyst, however, said the offer is “fairly valued” given that minority shareholders have “positioned early” in anticipation of a take-private bid, driving the share price up in recent months.

#2- Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce market is expected to be worth USD 44 bn by 2030, up from USD 21 bn today, economic analyst Mohammed Al Qahtani told Asharq Al Awsat. Al Qahtani sees the sector growing by 13.5% annually, beating a global average of 11.2%, as digital infrastructure and e-commerce are a key pillar of the Kingdom’s diversification efforts.

E-commerce is booming: Some 2.6 mn Saudi shoppers make onlinepurchases at least once per day, according to Checkout.com’s State of Digital Commerce in MENA 2024 report. Saudi Arabia is seeing “staggering” growth in online shopping with the number of Saudi consumers shopping online daily growing 90% in the past four years, 10 percentage points above the regional average.

#3- Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ) has established an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan, Petra reports. The fund aims to pour some USD 5 bn into an array of infrastructure and development projects across the country. ADQ will spearhead investment projects in Jordan including the operation and management of a port facility in Aqaba, the establishment of a railway network connecting Aqaba port to mining zones, and the development of a waste-to-energy conversion station, Petra said. Each project will be carried out through a dedicated subsidiary company.

#4- Russia has called off a temporary ban on gasoline exports due to a recovery in supplies, Reuters reports, citing statements by a source to RBC Daily. Russia issued a temporary six months ban on gasoline exports in late February, with the exception of previous intergovernmental agreements. “The temporary ban on gasoline exports which came into effect on March 1 will be suspended due to saturation of the domestic market and completion of unscheduled maintenance at refineries,” Russia’s energy ministry said.

The country has retained its position as China’s chief oil supplier for 12 months in a row in April, with volumes boosting 30% y-o-y to 9.26 mn metric tons for the month, equivalent to 2.25 mn barrels per day (bpd), as Chinese buyers continue to double down on disc. Russian shipments, Reuters reports, citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs. Meanwhile supplies from KSA dropped 25% to 6.34 mn tons, or 1.54 mn bpd, on the back of higher prices, the newswire says.

China is also receiving large shipments from Iran: China imported 980k bpd from Malaysia in April, about the same y-o-y, with Malaysia playing a major role in mediating transshipments for sanctioned cargoes from Iran and Venezuela, Reuters added. US officials cited concerns about the transshipments in recent visits to Singapore and Malaysia.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Sanctioned Russian tankers go offline: 39 oil tankers sanctioned by the US Treasury for price cap violations have been “sitting idle and empty” for the past 3 to 6 months, Bloomberg reports. 21 of the tankers belong to Russia’ state-owned tanker fleet operator Sovcomflot, with most of the 19 remaining controlled by UAE-based Hennesea Holdings, the outlet said. The vessels are scattered at various locations worldwide, including off of Russia’s Pacific Coast, China, South Korea, and close to the Suez Canal, with signal spoofing having recently misrepresented some vessel locations. Some tankers have also been renamed and reflagged in a bid to distance them from listings on sanctions databases, but still remain traceable by unique numeric identifiers.

MARKET WATCH-

Oil prices fell in early trading this morning as markets looked for signs on whether the US Federal Reserve will apply monetary easing, Reuters reports. Brent futures dipped USD 0.44 to USD 83.27 a barrel by 03.12 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped USD 0.51 to USD 79.29 a barrel, the newswire said. Data continues to indicate persistent inflation into 2024, edging the Federal Reserve towards not cutting back rates, US Federal Reserve vice-chair for supervision, Michael Barr said.

Saudi crude exports hit a nine-month high after exports rose for a second consecutive month in March to 6.4 mn barrels per day (bbl / d), according to Joint Organizations Data Initiative data. However, crude production dipped slightly m-o-m to 8.97 mn bbl / d.

Why this matters: OPEC+ meets on 1 June to decide on whether to extend voluntary oil cuts into the second half of the year. The oil cartel kept earlier this month its forecast for a strong global oil demand this year “broadly unchanged.” It expects oil demand to grow by 2.25 mn bbl / d this year and 1.85 mn bbl / d next year.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Egypt’s Suez Canal Zone (SCZone) has contracted 144 projects worth some USD 3.2 bn over the previous 10 months, between July 2023 to April 2024, according to a statement. Of the total, 67 projects have received final approvals and 77 have received initial approval, the statement said.

ALSO- The canal’s revenues are estimated to drop by 60% on the back of Red Sea disruptions, Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said, according to a statement. Inflation has also caused Egypt's monthly import bill to surge by USD 4 bn, Maait also said.

#2- Bahrain’s trade deficit eased 17.1% y-o-y in April to BHD 126 mn, BNA reports, citing Information &eGovernment Authority (iGA) trade figures. Exports of products of national origin dropped 9% during the period to BDH 277 mn, while re-exports boosted 16% to BHD 78 mn, and imports fell 8% to BHD 481 mn, BNA said.

#3- UAE airports recorded a 32% y-o-y growth in air cargo volumes in 1Q 2024, hitting 1.1 mn tons, Wam reports, citing the UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA). Air freight volumes for the quarter were composed of 269.5k tons of imports, 119.5k tons of exports, and 714.4k of transit cargoes. 68% of the quarter’s total air freight was moved by UAE-based carriers, WAM said. The period also saw a 14.7% boost to passenger numbers to some 36.5 mn passengers.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Barbados will hostUNCTAD’sGlobal Supply Chain Forum from Tuesday, 21 May to Friday, 24 May in Bridgetown. UNCTAD is holding the event in collaboration with the Government of Barbados, which aims to evaluate the role global supply chains have in supporting economic growth, creating jobs, and reducing poverty. Global industry leaders, policymakers and experts will convene to discuss forthcoming issues and explore innovative solutions.

Oman will host the Comex Technology Show from Monday, 27 May to Saturday, 30 May in Muscat. The event will see representation from industry leaders and decision makers to showcase buyer potential in innovative technology, in transportation, logistics, energy and healthcare sectors.

Egypt will host ProPak MENA from Sunday, 26 May to Tuesday, 28 May in Cairo. The conference will see F&B manufacturing industry professionals network and discover the latest equipment and logistic solutions for processing and packaging.

The UAE will host the IATA Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit from Sunday, 2 June to Tuesday, 4 June in Dubai. The event will bring together aviation industry players to showcase what can be achieved through supportive government policies and decisions. Airline leaders will make decisions during the event to formalize industry positions and set IATA’s strategic agenda.

Lebanon will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 27 June in Beirut. The event will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest developments in shipping, maritime, and offshore industries to discuss industry innovations, alternative fuels, and decarbonizing emissions in the maritime sector and ports.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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