How MENA countries’ non-oil private sector performed in March: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, told a mixed tale in March. UAE and KSA remained in expansion albeit at a softer pace, amid supply constraints and Red Sea shipping disruption, while Egypt continues to face currency challenges and pressure stemming from the disruptions —- contracting at a softer pace too, with indications of relief on prices.

Refresher- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything over 50 denotes expansion and anything below indicates contraction.

First up, the UAE: The UAE’s non-oil private sector inched down to 56.9 from 57.1 in February despite increased output levels, strong demand and new order volumes in March, according to S&P Globals PMI (pdf). The rate of expansion perked up from February’s six month low. Marketing campaigns and client spending were also noted to contribute to the figure, while export sales only increased modestly. UAE businesses output levels also rose, with 31% of respondents noting activity growth, citing projects in their pipelines and promotional activity as propelling their growth.

The weakest supply chain performance in a year: While the UAE’s overall non-oil private sector “remained rosy” in 1Q 2024, S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Economist David Owen said, companies still face considerable pressure on their workloads, administrative delays on payments and paperwork, and increased supply constraints due to the Red Sea shipping disruptions. Input freight arrivals also impacted business capacity, eroding suppliers ability to deliver items on time. Inventories of inputs also grew at their slowest rate amid fewer stockpiling efforts, while purchasing growth also softened to a seven-month low. Despite this, lead times shortened overall.

Demand should take care of backlog pressures: While the surge in backlogs is concerning for business health, demand should support activity growth for even longer once these issues are resolved, Owen commented.

Over in Saudi Arabia: KSA’s headline PMI figure dipped slightly to 57.0 from 57.2 in February despite a surge in demand across various sectors, according to Riyadh Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI (pdf). Output levels, new orders, new business volumes were recorded amid strong demand by Saudi businesses. Respondents reported greater purchasing in March, with demand favorable they opted to keep additional stocks of inputs by purchasing more items, and requesting quicker deliveries, leading to rapid improvements in inventories, and lead times. Increases in input supplies also contributed to reduction in outstanding business in March, with the decline described as marginal — and confined to the private sector.

Inflation continues to temper in the kingdom: Although input prices rose overall, the inflation rate was the slowest in eight months attributed to weakening of wage pressures. Businesses witnessed a decrease in cost inflation for a second month in a row, while inflation on purchasing costs was solid — despite dipping to the least marked for six months. Average selling prices rose slightly in March — albeit at a quicker pace than last month, with panelists indicating strong client demand enabling them to raise their charges, while others found their pricing strategies to be constrained by high competition.

Moving on to Egypt: Egypt’s headline PMI figure rose slightly to 47.6 in March from 47.1 in February — indicating a softer but still-solid deterioration, according to S&P Global’s Egypt PMI (pdf). Non-oil activity continued to face challenging conditions as new order volumes, business activity, and decreased demand remained flat. Activity declined amid weak order books and elevated inflationary pressures continued to hamper business output and confidence. FX challenges and price uncertainty continued to lead to a drop in client spending.

The Red Sea impact is still reverberating: Businesses continued to witness pressure from the currency crisis in March paired with the sharp fall in Suez Canal activity due to the Red Sea disruptions, causing a drop in USD inflow and causing FX rates and inflation to spike. Shipping issues contributed to material shortages causing a decline in vendor performance. Input purchases also continued to fall due to lower new work inflows, with higher prices also constraining buying activity.

Monetary policy shifts could sound relief: Recent measures to combat Egypt’s currency crisis — including the raising of interest rates, and the floating of the EGP — may bring some relief to price pressures and could begin to “reverse the damage,” Owen commented. PMI survey data on prices suggest this may be the case with input cost and output price inflation rates slowing to a three month low. Price inflation was also not as severe in March, dropping to a three-month low. Some businesses noted a hike in material prices and experienced the strongest rise in wages since October 2020, coupled with the first increase in new export orders since December 2022.

UAE, KSA, and Egypt all went on a hiring spree: Both UAE and KSA had an uptick in hiring for two consecutive months, with UAE firms raising their employment levels at a pace above the series trend for its second straight month. Saudi firms also hired additional workers to support workloads, with employment levels rising at a moderate pace that was quicker than the survey average for its second month in a row, in turn supporting reduction in outstanding business in March. Egyptian firms also raised their staffing firms for the first time in 2024, which helped to offset a reduction in February, and contribute to a fractional drop in backlogs.

The business outlook in UAE + KSA continues to be optimistic: UAE firms remained upbeat towards future business activity — rising to the second-strongest level in four years on the back of strong demand and high profits. Saudi firms expectations for the year ahead were positive and noted to be the strongest since last November underscoring a buoyant market outlook.

While hopes ticked down in Egypt with one of the weakest levels recorded in the series history. Although firms remained positive for the next 12 months, concerns remain regarding whether the economic condition will bring sales down further. Businesses are still lacking confidence that activity will grow over the year — indicating that economic risks may take more time to disappear, Owen said.

How did other MENA countries do in March? Qatar and Kuwait’s PMI will be out here today, while Lebanon’s will be out tomorrow and our coverage will follow.

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