Global shipping growth is expected to remain sluggish in 2024 due to geopolitical developments, protectionism, and supply chain reconsiderations, Dutch financial institution ING said in a report. However, the MENA region’s trade is poised to surpass the global average in 2023 and 2024, the report adds.

That doesn’t mean there’s a lack of demand: Major diversions in shipping routes driven by Russian sanctions are pushing demand up for shipping, especially for liquid bulk, which includes oil and gas. Russia’s oil and gas are still being traded in markets but to different buyers. More Russian sanctions have been coming into effect in 2023, potentially increasing seaborne shipping distances by more than 3% y-o-y. This is likely to carry on through 2024 with no indications of a policy shift.

REMEMBER- Western countries have been ramping up G7 price cap sanctions, with the US imposing sanctions on UAE-based Lumber Marine and Turkey-based Ice Pearl Navigation in the first instance of such penalties back in October. The UK followed the US’s footsteps with new sanctions on UAE-based shipping firms including Sovcomflot and three other Dubai-based firms.

There could be more diversions with the war in Gaza + the Panama Canal drought: Bulk grain shippers transporting cargoes from the US Gulf Coast to Asia have been sailing longer routes due to the drought paying increased freight costs to avoid vessel congestion, and record-high transit fees in the Panama Canal, which has been facing a drought for months. Israel's war on Gaza is also impacting shipments going through the Red Sea, with several shipping firms diverting their ships from the Red Sea following a string of attacks from Yemen’s Houthis.

The longer shipping routes are mostly affecting tanker shipping, particularly for Russian oil heading towards China and India where it is sold at reduced rates. The G7 nations are ditching Russian oil and are opting for US and Saudi crude and Indian diesel. This will drive global oil product shipping up by double digits in 2023, while tonnage demand will grow by 4% y-o-y.

Container trade is seeing mild contractions in 2023, but is on track for 3% y-o-y growth in 2024, according to another ING report. The growth is expected to be driven by the normalization of consumption, destocking, improved global trade conditions and recovery from sanctions imposed on Russia are all set to drive a 3% y-o-y rise.

Heavy fuel oil (HFO) prices dropped by almost 30% y-o-y in 1H 2023 despite inflationary pressures, helping container shipping companies’ costs. Low sulfur compliant fuels like very low sulfur fuel oils (VLSFO) and marine gas oil saw even larger drops, narrowing fuel spreads. The oil market does, however, remain volatile to inflationary pressures with a constant risk of increased prices.

Demand for LNG shipping, on the other hand, has been strong this year, with ING expecting it to rise more than 4% in 2023, according to the report, The rise in demand is coming on the back of more floating LNG terminals popping up in regions like Africa, the US and Qatar, to ramp up production to replace Russian gas.

Grain trade has been holding up well: After the disruptions in 2022 that came with the Russia-Ukraine war, port disruptions have been easing, with grain trade on the rise 4% y-o-y this year, the report said. Without any further significant interruptions, a a similar increase is expected next year, it explained.

The number of new tankers in 2023 hit its lowest point since 1996, especially very large crude carriers, on the back of increased concerns among investors due to the tankers’ long lifespan, as well as the risks related to shifting to cleaner energy, the report said. Orders

The tanker market’s main elements remain strong: The drop in order books, existing fleet inefficiencies and continued high demand for oil is positioning the market to continue growing financially. Orders for new product tankers picked up a bit during the year, but the rise in demand for shipping goods across longer distances has raised utilization rates and market pressure, the report said.

Rates are also poised to stay high: The cost of utilizing tankers to transport goods stood at some USD 40k a day in July since the Russia-Ukraine war, double the average of the past 10 years. The tight market conditions are expected to keep tanker rates at elevated levels. The oil market does, however, remain turbulent and oil prices could fluctuate in the future.

Tags: