Good morning, friends. It’s an incredibly busy start to the week, with news spanning virtually every logistics subsector and every country in the region, as world leaders convene for COP28 in Dubai and the IMO assembly in London.

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- AD Ports takes the cake with its drive to boost its influence in Asia, with a JV formed with Kazakhstan Railways to develop a logistics hub in the country, an agreement to build a shipyard in Kazakhstan, and a separate agreement with Vietnam to boost commercial expansion in various logistics-related sectors.

^^ We have everything on this story and more in the news well, below.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

Double strike off Yemen’s coast: A bulk carrier has been hit by a missile attack while sailing in the Red Sea, while another container vessel was also damaged by a drone in a separate incident 63 miles northwest of Yemen’s Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, Reuters reported. Britain’s Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO), had earlier reported drone activity originating from Yemen and a possible explosion, and urged vessels in the area to be cautious, the newswire reported separately. Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed the attacks in a post on X.

Why these ships? Saree said the first vessel — the Unity Explorer — is owned by a British firm that includes Dan David Ungar as one of its officers, the AP reports. Ungar is the son of Israeli shipping bnair Abraham “Rani” Ungar, who was also linked to another boat involved in attacks in recent weeks. The second vessel was a Panamanian-flagged container ship called Number 9, which is linked to Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, according to the AP.

US warship responds: US Navy destroyer USS Carney has shot down an Iranian-made drone that was headed for the ship after being launched from a Houthi-controlled area in Yemen, according to a statement. The Carney was escorting a US Navy supply ship and another US-flagged and crewed vessel that was transporting military equipment to the region, the statement said.

The incidents are the latest in a series of attacks following Houthi warnings: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group had issued warnings a few weeks ago indicating that they would target Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb strait. The following days saw Houthi gunmen seize the Bahamas-flagged Galaxy Leader and its crew. Yemen’s Houthi group, which controls the country’s north and most of its Red Sea coast, has stepped up attacks against Israeli shipping in the region following the country’s war with Hamas.

ICS says enough is enough: The InternationalChamber of Shipping has called for an immediate stop to attacks on ships and for the release of “innocent seafarers” that were taken hostage, in a statement. This follows a spate of attacks on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, including British-owned commercial vessel Galaxy leader which was hijacked by Houthi gunmen on 19 November with 25 crew members aboard.

What they said: “The attacks are a flagrant breach of international law and maritime norms by paramilitary forces in Yemen. These attacks must stop immediately, and the innocent seafarers released,” the ICS said. The shipowners association also called for vessels transiting the region to “conduct a thorough threat and risk assessment,” taking into account flag and maritime ins.

Warehouse fire extinguished in Jebel Ali, Dubai: Dubai firefighters have extinguished a blaze that broke out in a warehouse, according to a Dubai Media Office statement last week. No injuries or deaths have been reported.

Is the Ever Given saga finally over for good?Copenhagen-based shipping company AP Moller-Maersk has reached a settlement in a lawsuit it had filed in Danish court over the ship that blocked the Suez Canal in 2021, Bloomberg reports. The ship, operated by Evergreen Marine Corp, had blocked the canal for six days in March 2021, causing global disruptions in global trade that lasted months. Maersk was seeking USD 44 mn for losses caused by the incident. The company confirmed to Bloomberg that it has withdrawn the case in Denmark, without disclosing the parties involved in the lawsuit.

Russia snags control of St Petersburg Airport from its Gulf + German Investors: Russian President Vladimir Putin inked a decree last week putting St Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport under the temporary management of a Russian company that has been set up to manage the airport, Reuters reports. This decree takes control away from investors including German airport operator Fraport, who owns some 25%, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority, who holds 24.99%, Russian state-bank VTB, who holds 25.01%, and a consortium of Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala, Russian Direct Investment Fund, and Baring Vostok, who hold the remaining 25%, the outlet writes.

What now? According to the decree, the rights of foreign shareholders will pass to two different Russian entities, while Russian shareholders will retain their rights. Foreign shareholders will be able to restore their rights to stakes in the new company if they apply and ink new agreements that comply with Russian foreign investment laws, the outlet writes.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Qatar’s Power International Holding may invest in high-speed rail in Uzbekistan:Qatari business conglomerate Power International Holding plans to invest in the construction of a new high-speed railway from Tashkent to Samarkand in Uzbekistan, reports Azernews. This came during a visit by a Qatari delegation led by Deputy Chairman of Power International Holding Maurice Ghattas, where he met with Uzbekistan’s Ambassador to Unesco Umid Shadiyev, to discuss investments in Uzbekistan, Trend reports. The pair also discussed collaboration on a number of joint projects including the construction of a large logistics center, highway development, and railway and airport infrastructure.

DATA POINT #1-The Suez Canal witnessed an unprecedented rise in ships, net tonnage, and revenues in November, according to a statement. The canal saw a 4.3% y-o-y increase in ship crossings, amounting to 2.26k, while net tonnage increased by 8.2% y-o-y, reaching 135.5 mn tons on the back of a record number of ships — 387 — passing through the canal. Suez Canal revenues rose 20.3% y-o-y to USD 854 mn.

DATA POINT #2- Qatar’s merchandise trade balance reached USD 19 bn in October, a 24.2% drop from October 2022 and 4.2% lower than September 2023, according to figures from the Planning and Statistics Authority. Total exports saw a 23.5% y-o-y decrease, amounting to around QR 29.1 bn. The decrease in total exports is due to the lower export rate of petroleum gasses and other gaseous hydrocarbons, which experienced a 35.7% y-o-y decrease during the month. The total imports of goods showed a 22.1% y-o-y decrease at QR 10.1 bn, but a 6.9% m-o-m increase.

DATA POINT #3- KSA’s trade balance bleeds on lower exports + higher imports: Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus narrowed 54% y-o-y to SAR 100 bn, according to General Authority for Statistics (GASAT) figures (pdf). The kingdom’s exports fell 25% y-o-y to SAR 300 bn in 3Q 2023, while imports have increased 9.3% to SAR 200 bn.

Oil cuts weighed heavily on exports: Oil exports fell 27.8% y-o-y to SAR 231 bn in 3Q 2023, compounded with a 13% decline in non-oil exports to SAR 68.7 bn. The economy contracted 4.5% y-o-y in 3Q on the back of lower oil activity even as the private sector boom continued.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Could Turkey secureGulf funds for the Development Road during Erdogan’s visit to the region? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will seek as much as USD 23.5 bn in financing to build transport links between Asia and Europe via Turkey during his visits to the UAE during COP28, and Qatar, Bloomberg reports. Erdogan already sat down with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the sidelines of COP28, though no financing agreements have been announced as of yet.

What’s on the table? Erdogan is expected to discuss a rail and road network from Iraq’s Faw port to the Turkish border as well as a railway across the Bosphorus Strait, as part of the Development Road project, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu told the outlet.

Background: Some USD 8-10 bn worth of investment will be put towards the first phase for Iraq’s Development Road Project, with an increase to USD 20 bn, while the Bosphorus rail is expected to cost some USD 3-3.5 bn, Uraloglu added.

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC+ countries double down on supply cuts in 2024: Several OPEC+ countries agreed on Thursday to make deeper voluntary supply cuts in a bid to stabilize the markets, the alliance of oil producers said in a statement. Some 2.2 mn bpd will be removed from the market in 1Q 2024, with Russia committing to an additional 500k bpd cut and Saudi Arabia rolling over its 1 mnbpd reduction into 2024. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria and Oman will also reduce output during the period. The organization said it would gradually phase out the cuts starting 2Q 2024, depending on market conditions.

This isn’t the market reaction they wanted: Crude prices slumped almost 5% on Thursday and Friday following the announcement, which analysts attributed to the absence of a broader OPEC+ agreement and an expectation that the cuts would be deeper. “The market reaction implies disbelief in the full efficacy of the cuts,” Reuters quotes a JPMorgan analyst as saying.

Sluggish fleet growth means that the dry bulk market will dodge overcapacity going into the mid-2020s: Dry bulk cargo demand is expected to grow by 2.5-3.5% in 2023, 0.5-1.5% in 2024, and 1-2% in 2025, according base-case figures cited in a recent report by shipping association Bimco. Haul distances are expected to increase 0.5-1.5% in 2023, and up to 1% in 2024 and 2025, with shipments of raw materials from South America and Guinea stretching haul distances slightly.

Fleets are expected to grow by 2.9% in 2023, 2.4% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, the report says. Despite the less-than-impressive projections for cargo demand, the correspondingly muted fleet growth means that the dry bulk market should remain stable and avoid overcapacity.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey this month to discuss bilateral ties, as well as proposals by the Iran-Turkey Joint Chamber of Commerce for boosting bilateral trade, including through a potential trade agreement, state-aligned Tasnim News Agency quotes chairman of the chamber Mehrdad Saadat as saying. Saadat said that Iran’s trade with Europe could grow by taking advantage of Turkey’s trade capacities.

The Iran-UAE Joint Economic Cooperation Commission meeting will be held in the coming weeks in a bid to develop bilateral cooperation, deepen commercial ties, and boost trade. The location has yet to be announced.

The International Conference on Air Services Negotiations (ICAN) 2023 will take place between 3-7 December at the Hilton Riyadh Hotel and Residences in Saudi Arabia. The event is hosted by the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation, and will serve as a meeting point for bilateral, regional air services talks and consultations, as well as a networking platform for policy makers, regulators, air operators, service providers and other stakeholders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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