Will the maritime sector meet its 2030 goal? Maybe, but maybe not: Actions for the shipping sector to transition to the use of 5% of its fuels from scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF) by the end of the decade is “partially on track,” according to a report (pdf) carried out by UMAS and UN Climate Change High Level Champions. Analysis of efforts towards the decarbonization of the sector in the past year indicates that overall progress to reach the 5% target is partially on track, but a lack of progress in areas such as technology, demand, and national policy developments threatens to derail progress, the report notes.

REMEMBER- The shipping industry — which transports some 80% of goods via — contributes 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, giving itan instrumental role to play in supporting global efforts to limit global warming by 1.5 celsius. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) strategy on the reduction of GHG emissions works to address this problem. The IMO also updated its target to include “striving towards 10% uptake of zero or near zero GHG emission technologies, fuels and/or energy sources” by 2030.

What are SZEFs? While there is no concrete definition for SZEFs, these fuels — which exclude biofuels and LNG, according to the report — must be viable replacements for existing fossil fuels, scalable enough that 200-300 mn tons oil equivalent of current consumption can be matched in the future, and producible with GHG intensity reductions of 90-100% relative to incumbent fossil-based fuels, and competitive in the cost of production, according to the report.

Some things are partially on track: Policy, finance, and civil society are partially on track, with significant improvements due to the adoption of the IMO GHG strategy, which the report says signals the sector is dedicated and committed to decarbonisation. Transparency on green debt and stringent regulations have improved, the report says, with loans remaining stable, though there is a lack of clarity around how much of this financing will go exclusively towards SZEF. Public finance’s interest in shipping has also been growing, with some USD 7.7 bn possibly available for SZEF — though most of that is based in EU and US, according to the report.

It’s “partial” for a reason: On a national policy level, hydrogen strategies and standardization need to be strengthened and followed through. There’s also a need for more diverse voices to become involved in the transition to ensure the equitable adoption of SZEF, the report says,

But how are we doing on supply? The report says we’re “partially on track” when it comes to SZED production, with a lot of progress on the technological side of things, as well as collaboration between industry stakeholders and an increase of pilot projects. The report has a positive outlook on supply, noting that in the event that demand meets supply, and provided a continued growth rate in project announcements and implementation, supply supply could even exceed the 5% goal and bring us closer to the 10% goal of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy.

The caveat is scalability: The shift from small-scale to more large-scale projects that can help achieve 2030 targets are “unclear,” the report says, citing concerns with capacities of engine manufacturers and shipyards.

And insufficient demand: The report says demand is not on track for us to meet the 2030 target. By 2030, about 5-10% of container miles will need to be green. To put things in perspective, this would equate to about 100 15k TEU containerships all running on SZEF in 2025 and about 600 similar ships in 2030, the report says. However, based on current trends, the report projects the global fleet to put us close to just 30-50% of the goal for 2025.

A possible solution to the issue of demand is increasing retrofitting of ships and newbuilds, but this will require a “structural change” from current trends, as well as stronger signals from industry, and new legislation.

The end goal is still viable, but the window is closing within the next two to four years:Lead times for new supply of SZEFs are long, which means the window for new announcements — and demand-driven production — is closing soon, the report said. Oversupply of ships with expensive compliance pathways could also become an issue if demand does not grow to meet supply, the report warns.

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