How MENA countries’ non-oil private sector performed in October:Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in UAE, KSA, Qatar, Egypt, and Lebanon told a mixed tale in October. The UAE, KSA and Qatar remained in expansion due to an increase in new orders and high demand, though Qatar is inching closer to the threshold separating contraction from expansion. Meanwhile, Egypt and Lebanon remained in contraction in October amid supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions.

Refresher: The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything over 50 denotes expansion and anything below indicates contraction.

Non-oil private sector activity in the UAE signaled expansion due to a strong boost in demand levels in October, according to S&P’s Global UAE PMI (pdf). The PMI reading came in at 57.7, up from 56.7 in September — its highest level in over four years. The PMI was mostly buoyed by a rise in new orders, which supported increased activity, purchasing and staffing. Strengthened demand also brought new clients, and paved the way for new foreign orders.

Increased demand drove inventory growth: Emirati firms also recorded inventory growth during the month, as they increased their buying in response to high demand, and in turn, cut back on backlogs.

On the downside, a combination of rising fuel and material costs, and inflationary pressures led to a sharp increase in business costs in October, with firms increasing their selling prices for the first time in a year and a half.

Saudi Arabia’s PMI continued to accelerate for the second month in a row to 58.4, up from 57.2 in September and the highest since June, according to Riyadh Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI (pdf). This came on the back of an increase in new orders, which also led to an increase in employment levels — the greatest improvement in 9 years.

Like in the UAE, higher client orders led to an increase in buying and stocks of purchases, the PMI said, adding that inventory growth was also helped by the decrease of average input lead times. Firms also managed to reduce backlog volumes at the sharpest rate since August 2022, on the back of increased hiring and business-friendly policies, according to the PMI.

Qatar’s non-energy private sector continued to inch down in October to 50.8,down from 53.7 in September, with its headline figure dipping below its long-run average of 52.3, according to Qatar Financial Centre PMI (pdf). Qatar’s PMI indicated improving business conditions, albeit at the softest rate so far this year, with new orders, output, and employment all expanding in October.

Purchases and supply chains continued to see improvement, with average lead times falling for the eighteenth successive month. Purchasing of inputs expanded for the eighth straight month, but only fractionally, as firms aimed to stabilize their inventory levels, leaving input stocks unchanged since September.

Egypt suffered from inflation pressures + low demand, again: Egypt’s contraction fell to a five-month low of 47.9, down from 48.7, last month, indicating a moderate deterioration in the non-oil private sector, according to S&P’s Global PMI (pdf). Inflationary pressures continued to weigh on demand, while firms also faced increased input costs driven by higher material prices and currency weakness.

Egypt’s new orders plunged in October, with survey respondents highlighting a combination of rising prices, currency weakness and supply problems as affecting demand. Businesses also reported a slight decrease in their inventory levels, a first in three months, as well as slower purchasing activity and increased delivery times amid import challenges. This meant that backlogs continued to increase, but at a softer pace, according to the PMI.

Security concerns weighed on Lebanon’s non-oil private sector activity:Lebanon’s PMI inched down to 48.9, from 49.1 in September, amid the fastest decrease in order cancellations since February, according to BlomInvest Bank’s PMI (pdf). Security concerns amid Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza, which subsequently caused export sales, input, and supplier performance to worsen, with order book figures decreasing too. “These regional tensions created an atmosphere of economic instability, impacting the PMI for October 2023,” BlomInvest Bank general manager Fadi Osseiran commented.

Lebanon continued to face increased input and output costs as inflationary pressures rose, while backlogs continued to fall, according to the PMI.

The usual suspects’ outlook remained positive, with the addition of Egypt: The UAE’s outlook for business activity remained elevated in October on the back of robust demand expectations, with “high business confidence levels suggesting that firms do not expect this momentum to lose steam,” Owen commented. KSA also maintained a degree of confidence attributed to higher demand and robust pipelines, though the degree of optimism eased slightly. Qatar’s surveyed companies also remained optimistic for the 12 month outlook. Egypt’s outlook for activity also improved to its highest level in 2023 so far, with 13% of respondents predicting growth in the next year.

Though firms in Lebanon were not as upbeat: With escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel, Lebanon’s business confidence dipped slightly to a three-month low.

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