The region’s food import bills could rise 30% by 2032: Production constraints and a booming population will see MENA increasingly reliant on food imports in the medium run, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2023-2032. Limited availability of arable land and scarce water resources mean that MENA — which is already among the largest net food importers in the world — is restricted in terms of food production, with the situation poised to get worse as the region is among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change, the report explained. Although oil-rich countries are in a better position than the rest of the region, fluctuations in energy markets may have pronounced impacts on their demands for food.

By the numbers: 2032 is projected to see food import bills that are 30% higher than the 2023 base period, the report added. By 2032 the region’s food imports are projected to be second only to the Developed World and East Asia bloc, and the highest on a per capita basis. The region’s food import bill has been growing steadily following a brief dip due to pandemic-related supply chain problems in 2020.

Grains will be a big chunk: By 2032, the region’s imports of wheat will account for 26% of the world’s wheat imports, while sugar imports will account for 23% of global imports, and maize will account for 15%, according to the report.

As will meat + dairy imports: Proportions for meat and dairy products are also set to increase with MENA’s imports of sheepmeat accounting for 34% and cheese accounting for 21% of global markets by 2032. Besides being a major import globally, MENA’s food imports comprise a weighty share of domestic consumption, once more underlining the fact that changes to global and domestic markets may have far-reaching implications for the region’s food security, the report concludes.

The region’s import bill rose 5% in 2022, according to the report. Imports are expected to rise further in 2023, though at a slower pace, on the back of high food prices and weaker income growth.

High import dependency increases the region’s exposure to “trade related challenges,” the report said. Disrupted supply chains and a surge in shipping costs due to the Covid-19 pandemic were exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This was particularly troublesome for the region as it is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for wheat supplies. Although the UN-Turkey brokered Black Sea grain initiative — which is now under threat, after Russia backed out this week — saw exports resume, volumes are lower than previously and subject to the continuity of the agreement.

Surging global food prices have also put a strain on the region’s food security, OECD-FAO’s report added. This was particularly so for non-oil exporting countries which saw a cost-of-living-crisis exacerbated by currency depreciations. A double whammy of global inflation and currency devaluations have made basic foods and healthy diets less affordable to low income households. Food bills account for 33% of household expenditure in the region’s poorest countries, implying that “income and price shocks can have a significant impact on welfare,” the report said.

Counterproductive policies are also at fault: The region has attempted to taper its reliance on imports and limit susceptibility to trade and supply chain disruptions through enacting policies to stimulate local cereal production, but these initiatives have backfired, the report explained.

Upped cereal production has come at the cost of reduced output of higher value crops due to competition for limited water resources. The lost output of higher value fresh produce may have otherwise improved dietary diversity and allowed higher income for the same outlay of limited water and land resources.

Productivity gains are the way to go: Rather than switch out high value crops for cereals, the region should focus on getting the most out of its limited land and water resources, the report explains. This is particularly important when considering that additions to agricultural land over the coming ten years are negligible and estimated at 0.5%.

Productivity gains over the past decade were largely underpinned by increased capital inputs and averaged 0.8% a year, according to the OECD-FAO report. This rate is expected to rise to 1.2% a year over the next decade with agricultural intensification, larger wheat yields, and better technology driving the trend.

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