The MENA region's trade is set to outpace global trade rates by 4%, with Asia, Africa and the Middle East expected to propel global trade to USD 32.6 tn by 2030, according to a Standard Chartered report (pdf). The regions’ dense populations and rapidly-developing economies will “anchor global trade in 2030,” with export corridors in the region set to outpace average annual global trade growth by 5%, and the combined exports of these regions poised to dominate 44% of international trade, driving a total of USD 14.4 tn of global exports.

There are numerous drivers fueling trade growth in the three regions: Global business leaders recorded the key enablers for trade growth in these regions, with 54% citing

increased wealth amongst the middle class which increases consumption for goods, boosting trade activity. Another 49% of respondents believed that technological advancements in manufacturing will enhance competitiveness, and 43% expect accelerating digitization to boost productivity and facilitate trade.

The Middle East’s total exports will reach USD 2 tn by 2030, whilst maintaining its heavy importer title — which is forecasted to reach USD 1.7 tn by 2030 , and is set to include South Asia as an import source. East Asia will look forward to remaining the Middle East’s largest export partner, with Europe forecasted to be the fastest growing destination seeing high export flows driven by strong demand for fossil fuels as Europe looks to broaden its spectrum of energy rescources. Africa is also expecting to see growth in imports from the Middle East as the region promotes itself as an important source of energy imports.

Export corridors between Asia, the Middle East and Africa are set to strengthen, with a Middle East-South Asia export corridor predicted to grow at a stable rate between 2021 and 2030, according to the report.

The UAE + Saudi Arabia will take the lead as “trade hubs” by 2030: The report mentions thirteen markets set to take over 73% of exports and 69% of imports in Asia, Africa and the Middle East by 2030. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are among those “hubs” — key nodes playing a crucial role in the global trading system — in storing, routing and distributing goods for their respective regions and beyond, according to the report. The UAE’s exports are set to reach USD 523 bn by 2030, increasing 5.5% y-o-y from 2021 to 2030, while Saudi Arabia’s exports could reach USD 418 bn by 2030.

Driving export growth in the UAE: The country has beendiversifying exports in non-oil sectors by easing foreign ownership rules and presenting attractive incentives. The UAE has set a USD 150 bn inward foreign investment target to enhance its domestic non-oil industries and diversify its export profile, as it strengthens trade ties with rapidly growing economies. This is coupled with the introduction of the “world logistics passport” — the first ever international freight loyalty program aiming to link a network of local manufacturers, freight forwarders and traders together. Its main export sectors include metals and minerals, as plastic and rubbers, and crude oil, gas and petroleum products.

More CEPAs in the pipeline will also help: The UAE-India trade agreement will boost trade ties between the two countries, as the two countries work towards strengthening bilateral trade of oil and gas to minerals and textiles from USD 60 bn in 2022 to USD 100 bn over the next five years. The UAE has already inked CEPAs with other countries including Turkey, Indonesia, Israel, Georgia and Cambodia and is currently in negotiations with Pakistan. The initiatives are envisioned to reduce tariffs, promote free movement of goods, as well as ease improved capital flows.

Saudi Arabia’strade is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.8% from 2021 to 2030. Its key export sectors include metals, minerals, plastics, rubbers, chemicals and pharma. Its imports are forecast to rise at an annual rate of 7%, reaching USD 239 bn by 2030. In 2022, the Kingdom announced plans to construct 59 new logistics zones as it looks to diversify its economy, as well as forging novel routes connecting Asia and Europe and diversifying trade away from oil.

Regional trade agreements will boost intra-regional connectivity: Trade agreements like the ASEAN countries’ regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) and AfCFTA will boost intra-regional exports by 5.8% — and drive 5.6% import growth — between 2021 and 2030.

Trade in those regions will also face more resilience against supply chain disruptions with revamped supply chains shortening the gap between the production source and consumption destination. However, the regions will still remain the most vulnerable against disruptions due to discrepancies in infrastructure and institutional maturity, according to the report.

Export- and trade-focused policy change is key, Standard Chartered says,especially when targeting the development of infrastructure, trade cooperation and key industries, the report adds. Policy changes like removing tariff and non-tariff barriers to permit deeper trade integration, strengthening infrastructure to smooth trader flows and supportive industrial policies to support manufacturing outputs and exports, were all cited by business leaders as fundamental for the region’s trade down the road.

As is boosting accessibility to supply chain finance: Digital supply chain finance solutions (SCF) will be “game changers” for the future of trade, potentially unlocking USD 791 bn of additional exports by 2030 in 13 key markets across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These tools will help regions impacted by inflation and risk aversion access finance and increase activity in global supply chains, the report said.

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