Enterprise Explains:Sustainable fuels for aviation. Global aviation emissions have been on the rise since covid-19 travel restrictions have been lifted, accounting for 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021, a 2022 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows. Emissions from the industry have grown faster in recent decades than road, rail, or shipping, and are expected to continue on a steep growth trajectory to surpass pre-covid-19 levels “in the coming few years,” the IEA says. Aviation-related emissions need to be reduced to below 900 Mt CO2 by 2030, to accelerate a drive towards net zero milestones, according to the IEA.

Tapering down aviation emissions would require several near- to medium-term priorities to be implemented, such as accelerating investments in sustainable fuels, replacing fossil-fuel based kerosene with hydrogen-powered aircraft options and implementing regulatory measures.

Things are looking up:The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is expecting global renewable fuel production to reach 55 mn tonnes by 2028, according to a press release. If this happens, we would be on track to reach the trajectory of 80 mn tonnes by 2030.

What alternative fuel options are on the table? Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), improved navigation, hydrogen-powered and battery electric aircraftsare all potential sustainable solutions for the industry. We delve into the realm of sustainable aviation methods, breaking down the pros and cons of each one, seeing which are poised to be applied in the MENA region.

SAF may hold potential: SAFs are biofuels composed of organic plant matter or municipal waste — emitting only a fraction of the carbon compared to fossil fuels, while providing the same level of power output, a Bioenergy Technologies Office report shows.

SAF use is already growing, with global production tripling to 300 mn liters in 2022, according to IATA, which says that 130 renewable fuel projects by 85 producers in 30 countries have announced their intent to produce SAF as part of their production of renewable fuels. If renewable energy production reaches 69 bn liters by 2028, the trajectory to 100 bn liters by 2030 would be on track, and if 30% of this is SAF, the industry could achieve 30 bn liters of SAF production by 2030, IATA said.

But more needs to be done:Increasing the use of SAF from 0.1% in 2021 to 10% by 2030 will necessitate investments in production capacity, as well as new policies such as fuel levies, according to the IEA.

The holdup: SAFs are costly and their adoption has been sluggish. Their cost is three to four times more expensive than kerosene, making their use less price competitive and thereby decreasing their production — which was estimated to have reached 0.1% of global jet fuel consumption, according toBloomberg.

But they are starting to make some noise in the Middle East: In theUAE, airline giants Emiratesand Etihad are exploring the incorporation of alternative aviation biofuels into their practices. Emirates operated its first demonstration flight in January 2023 of a Boeing 777-300ER, which uses an engine that runs on 100% sustainable biofuels, according to a company statement. Earlier in November 2022, Etihad teamed up with ITOCHU and NESTE to operate a flight on a 40% blend of SAF, Etihad said in a statement.Qatar Airways also earlier this month inked an agreement with Shell for the supply of 3k metric tons of neat SAF at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, after agreeing to purchase some 5 mn gallons a year of SAF over the next five years from US-based Gevo last year.

And regional renewables firms have a hand in making it happen: UAE renewables company Masdar recently signed an agreement with Airbus to jointly develop sustainable aviation fuels, green hydrogen, and direct air capture technologies. The agreement also sees the companies launching a book and claims framework that would enable aircraft operators to source their SAF supplies without being geographically connected to a stockpile site. Masdar is looking to capture a significant share of the global SAF market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR rate of 42.39% to USD 14 bn by 2032, the company notes, citing market forecasts by Precedence Research.

There are also feasibility studies being conducted that could potentially culminate in the region’s first commercial-scale SAF production facility, in Abu Dhabi. Masdar, Adnoc, Emirates Airways, and Tadweer are conducting the feasibility study with BP.

Demand and supply-side policies are needed to boost the growth of SAFs: Airports showing a commitment to the use of SAFs can help increase demand and accelerate the transition towards SAF consumption, IEA added. Funding and de-risking also help ease this transition by allowing continued innovation pertaining to sustainable production processes including the incorporation of unconventional feedstocks. Demand-side policies, including low-carbon fuel standards and blending mandates may help establish long-term demand indicators as well.

Hydrogen powered aircraft — which are powered by hydrogen combustion through modified gas turbine engines — is another renewable option which is being considered across Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Morocco, Fast Company Middle East reports.It also has the potential to be the aviation industry’s most promising alternative to fossil fuels.

… but it might take a while till they hit our markets. We might not see large hydrogen passenger planes until 2030, with supporting infrastructure needed at a large enough scale. It also needs innovative fuel storage and delivery methods, low-cost and lightweight cryogenic tanks, and redesigned airframes to suit them, IEA added.

Still, progress is being made globally:Airbus’s ZEROe is in the process of developing large commercial hydrogen aircrafts which are set to be operational by 2035. It is also partnering with CFM to build a jet turbine which combusts hydrogen, and has signed an agreement with Wizz Air — a low budget carrier which has an Abu Dhabi-based joint venture with UAE state holding company ADQ — to develop a hydrogen-powered aircraft. Rolls-Royce is also jumping in the hydrogen pool by researching hydrogen-powered engines for small aircrafts, according to a press release.

Battery electric propulsion is another alternative with no direct emissions, high efficiency, and lower noise emissions, as highlighted by the IEA. So far, only one electric aircraft named Alice and manufactured by Israel’s Eviation has been tested last year at Moses Lake airport in the US state of Washington.

The downside? Batteries are too energy-dense and heavy, which hampers the range and size of aircrafts, according to IEA. That’s exactly why Eviation slashed Alice’s expected travel range from 815 km to 445 km after the trial flight, DW reported earlier this year. This means that the electric aircraft can only be deployed on niche markets, but they are in demand nevertheless, Björn Nagel, director of the Institute for System Architecture in Aeronautics (DLR) in Hamburg, told DW. Still, the company is planning to make its first Alice deliveries to customers as soon as 2027 if “battery technology evolves the way we expect it to,” Eviation CEO Gregory Davis said.

Besides Alice, eVTOLS are also taking off (pun intended): Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) — drone-like aircraft that use electric propulsion and large omnidirectional fans to allow them to takeoff vertically and to act like air taxis — are meant to be energy efficient, quiet, environmentally friendly, and eventually pilotless. Beyond their applications as air taxis, the vehicles are expected to be able to operate on an inter-city basis and be used for cargo shipping.

Who’s leading the way? Saudi Arabia is taking the lead with the adoption of eVTOLS, with its new mega project Neom recently investing USD 175 mn as part of a series E investment in German eVTOL vehicle maker Volocopter, in order to roll out an “advanced air mobility industry” in KSA. KSA’s national flag carrier Saudia also last year signed an agreement with Lilium to purchase 100 electric jets, while UAE-based charter flight operator Falcon Aviation Services is buying up to 35 flying taxis from electric aircraft company Eve Holding, with deliveries expected to start in 2026.

The caveat: eVTOLS require huge amounts of electricity at take off and landing, and need batteries to be swapped and cool in between flights. German eVTOL manufacturer Lilium is aiming to have its aircraft range of 250 km with a battery system that charges to 80% in 15 minutes and 100% within 30 minutes. Petalite estimates that the vehicles need high-capacity 600kW fast-charging capability to serve their duty cycles.

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