Enterprise explains: Sustainable fuels for heavy-use vehicles. Globally, carbon emissions from buses and trucks have been on the rise for the last twenty years, a 2022 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows, with more than 80% of emissions being generated from trucks. Emissions from these vehicles need to fall at least 16% from current levels by 2030 in order to hasten a push towards net zero, according to the IEA. Road transport needs to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels to the equivalent of 19 mn barrels a day (bpd) by 2050, down from the 38 mn bpd that the industry currently consumes, according to DNV.

While most of us might be familiar with hydrogen, liquid natural gas (LNG) and electric vehicles (EVs) as alternatives, there are other diesel substitutes currently being studied. We break down the pros and cons of each one, and go deeper to see which of these are likely to be picked up in the MENA region soon.

The most popular alternative: Electric vehicles (EVs) come in three forms: hybrid-electric, plug-in and battery-operated, and lithium ion batteries are needed for all three, a Volvo report (pdf) shows. These engines do not produce CO2 and nitrogen oxide emissions, but cost more to manufacture than those that run on conventional diesel, while charging infrastructure is still in its infancy and they still are only able to travel relatively short distances.

As a result, the share of global EV trucks and vans sales is negligible, representing just 1.2% of sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2022, according to a report from BloombergNEF and an IEA report. Some 220 new electric heavy-duty vehicle models entered the market, bringing the total to over 800 models offered by well over 100 OEMs, with China dominating the market both in terms of sales and the infrastructure needed for EVs.

Electric trucks are also picking up in the MENA region: In the UAE, Hitachi Energy — a company that serves industry, utility and infrastructure sectors to accelerate the energy transition — was recently awarded a contract to develop the country’s first electric truck charging infrastructure, according to an official press release. In Saudi Arabia, the National Transportations Solutions Company (NTSC), a tech firm specializing in sustainable and clean mobility solutions, also earlier this year teamed up with PepsiCo to develop and trial the kingdom’s first EV delivery truck, NTSC said in a statement.

Hydrogen fuel — which is made by combining hydrogen with oxygen to produce electricity — is another popular renewable energy source currently being tested for heavy-use vehicles. Although most hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels, it has the potential to be the cleanest renewable source on this list if renewable energy sources are used for its production, the Volvo report noted.

Why is hydrogen an attractive fuel source for trucks? The lower mass of hydrogen systems allows for heavier payload, Toyota said in a statement, adding that the fast refueling of hydrogen is also great for heavy-duty transport. It’s also expected to become a major renewable energy source in the coming decades. By 2050, it could account for 20% of global emissions reductions, McKinsey research shows. More than 680 hydrogen projects have been announced globally so far, with investments of USD 240 bn.

Fuel cell hydrogen trucks are coming, but it’s early stages: Toyota plans to roll out its first hydrogen fuel cell trucks as soon as this summer, with the help of its already-established fuel cell technology and a partnership with Dutch company VDL Groep, the company said in a statement. Another promising player in the sector is Volvo, which successfully tested its prototype hydrogen-fuel truck in Sweden earlier this month, the company said in a statement. The trucks are capable of producing hydrogen onboard, which makes them suitable for longer rides and roads with no charging infrastructure. Volvo plans to bring the trucks to market in the second half of the decade, it said in the statement, adding that tests with hauliers will start a few years before launch.

MENA is set to become a leader in hydrogen production over the coming years: While the majority of MENA region countries have yet to release their national hydrogen strategies, a total of 68 low-carbon hydrogen agreements were signed in the region just last year, according to a summary report (pdf) by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The UAE plans to have a 25% share of the global hydrogen market by 2030, while Morocco is looking to reach a 6% share, followed by Egypt’s sights on a 5% share. Saudi Arabia wants to produce 2.9 mn tons of green hydrogen and ammonia annually by 2030, while Oman aims to produce between 1 and 1.5 mn tons annually by 2030. A report published last month by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) concluded that Egypt, Morocco, KSA, and Oman are leading MENA’s green hydrogen development.

LNG is an alternative that can help reduce diesel-powered trucks’ emissions — but it’s not a clean energy source: LNG — which is a cooled natural gas — is a fossil fuel, but it has roughly 25% lower carbon content than diesel, giving it some appeal as an alternative fuel for long-haul trucks, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). However, looking at the full well-to-wheel process over longer time frames indicates that LNG poses many climate risks, in some cases worse than those posed by diesel-powered trucks, the ICCT says, referencing the impact of methane — which spark-ignited LNG uses — specifically.

Having said that, the MENA region has plenty of LNG infrastructure that could still help wean the region off of diesel-powered trucks. Most GCC countries — including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar — are known for their natural gas reserves and infrastructure, while Egypt is also emerging as a big supplier, with some USD 8 bn in investments expected in the sector in 2023.

The Volvo report spotlights five other alternatives: Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), synthetic diesel and dimethyl ether (DME) all have properties that make them similar to conventional diesel, with little or no need to change truck engines to use these alternatives, but the main advantage of DME over HVO and synthetic diesel is that tailpipe CO2 emissions are around 10% less when compared to conventional diesel, and it produces very low emissions of NOx. Bio-LNG, also known as liquified bio-methane, is produced by taking biogas from sludge, green waste or animal manure, and turning it into liquid biomethane, making it chemically close to LNG. However, when compared to LNG, bio-LNG produces less CO2 emissions, and can be produced on a local level, further reducing its carbon footprint.

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