Dubai is spearheading the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AV) based logistics solutions in MENA as it pursues one of the world’s most ambitious programs in the field. The city is angling to have 25% of all of its trips automated by 2030 through a government-backed strategy that will see widespread use of multimodal AV transport. Despite promising many benefits — particularly in terms of safety and efficiency — the path still remains riddled with hurdles, from legislative ones to issues of practicality.

First things first: What are autonomous vehicles — and what potential do they offer for the logistics sector? AV-based solutions are set to deliver big upgrades to logistical performance in the near future, according to a report (pdf) authored by Senior Economist and Applied Scientist at Uber Freight Mazen Danaf. Chief among these is better safety, helping potentially reduce human errors that have caused some 87% of 5k deaths due to trucking accidents in the US in 2019. AV-based logistics also mean better operations in terms of reduced traffic congestion, and can also help fill gaps in labor shortages, the report explained. Dubai’s government estimates that autonomous vehicles could help it save some AED 22 bn per year in costs, according to its roadmap (pdf).

Enterprise Logistics spoke to Ismail Zohdy (LinkedIn), the program manager for Dubai’s self-driving transport strategy to discuss the emirate’s plans for AV development, and how it plans to tackle the challenges that lie ahead. Zohdy offers his opinions in his capacity as an AV expert, and not as a representative of a specific entity or organization.

Two facets of Dubai’s strategy make it a world first:

#1- It’s government-backed. Unlike private sector-led AV, Dubai’s SDT strategy gets its momentum from the government. That means that many of the bureaucratic, legislative, and regulatory potholes that hold up private sector initiatives elsewhere in the world are streamlined in Dubai’s case.

#2- It encompasses a wide range of transport modes, amounting to seven in total, from buses and metro to watercraft and flying taxis, Zohdy told Enterprise Logistics. Dubai’s strategy plans to integrate “the full portfolio of modes,” Zohdy said.

The strategy also benefits from solid infrastructure: Zohdy also mentions that Dubai’s physical infrastructure is among the best in the world, providing an ideal platform for the application of AV-based logistics.

In terms of readiness, first-mile-last-mile and ridesharing AV solutions are closest to hitting the road, Zohdy said. “A big initiative in that regard will be released this year,” he noted, while cautioning that timeframes are always tricky to nail down where such a dynamic field is concerned. Nevertheless, preliminary tests have been promising with the successful roll out of Talabat UAE’s “talabot” pilot program and Aramex’ test of a robo-delivery program. Another milestone Zohdy mentions is Dubai’s passing of the region’s first AV-related legislation this year, regulating the operation of AVs.

Autonomous vehicles mean more efficiency + improved safety: Dubai hopes to realize substantial benefits from widespread application of AV-based logistics, includingimprovements in safety and operational savings, as AV-based logistics systems assign routes using advanced algorithms that maximize efficiency, Zohdy said. These translate into faster deliveries, less down time, and more efficient use of resources.

Dubai’s SDT strategy is also a big plus as far as sustainability is concerned as all transport modes included in the strategy are electric, he added.

Challenges — including legislative, cultural, and infrastructure-based (both digital and physical) — abound, Zohdy said, while noting that most of these challenges are similar to those faced by AV-based logistics programs anywhere in the world. As far as legislation is concerned, Zohdy explains that the question of liability is particularly problematic as switching out humans for automated components makes it difficult to determine who is responsible should accidents involving AVs occur.

Dubai’s multiculturalism also presents difficulties, Zohdy adds. The city hosts hundreds of nationalities, each with their own distinct driving and pedestrian cultures. As AVs need to predict driver and pedestrian behavior, the multitude of contradicting patterns makes it difficult for AI to judge how human actors will interact with their routes and immediate vicinity. Also relevant to the “people pillar” is widespread acceptance of AVs, which also presents challenges. In terms of infrastructure, Zohdy notes that AVs must be made to interpret road signs in both English and Arabic, for example.

AVs are also expensive: The business model is “not easy,” Zohdy says. AV systems are expensive to install and operate, making their feasibility as investments hard to justify when compared to the relatively low cost of hiring a human driver. Zohdy cites advanced sensors and a 24-hour control center as examples of significant one-time and operating costs that must be accommodated.

Nevertheless, it’s full steam ahead: 2023 is a “big year” with more milestones than any other year since the program started in 2017, Zohdy told us, adding that we will likely see the roll out of some AV systems after the successful conclusion of tests.

Dubai is not the only city with an ambitious AV strategy: KSA’s USD 500 bn megaproject NEOM is also looking to roll out automated logistical solutions at its multiple sites. These will include the world’s first fully automated seaport, autonomous ground and air shuttles and a carless city. NEOM recently invested USD 175 mn in a joint venture with eVTOL company Volocopter. The investment will see both sides working together on “fleets, operations and infrastructure to localize industry innovation,” according to NEOM. Although the near future will likely see a slew of such concrete steps, few details of NEOM’s integrated AV-based logistics strategy have been released thus far.

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