Domestic demand boosts non-oil sectors in UAE + KSA + Qatar, while Egypt’s contraction eases on the back of lower inflationary pressures: Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) tracking non-oil private sectors in UAE, KSA, Qatar, and Egypt told a mixed tale but with all-round hopeful notes. The UAE, KSA, and Qatar saw better performance on the back of higher domestic demand and lower inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Egypt remained in contraction — albeit at a slower rate — and there were signs that soaring inflation is bottoming out.

Non-oil private sector activity in the UAE soared, backed by the fastest growth in new orders since November 2021, according to S&P Global’s UAE PMI (pdf). PMI readings for April came in at 56.6, up from 55.9 in March, putting the index just a notch below its 56.7 post-pandemic peak in August last year. New orders hit their highest levels since November 2021.

Remember: The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion and anything below indicates contraction.

The bulk of the new demand in the UAE came from the local market as inflationary pressures cooled, while foreign sales numbers remained steady since the close of 1Q 2023, the report said. Firms responded to the new demand by raising output, stockpiling inventories, and going on a hiring spree, which were just a notch below the seven-year-record observed in March. New hires helped put a dent in backlogs but raised staffing costs. Companies’ general outlook was the highest in seven months as respondents were hopeful that demand will keep rising. Better economic conditions, a boom in new constructions, and higher budgets for marketing were also cited as grounds for a cheery one-year forecast.

KSA told a similar story as local demand boosted the non-oil private sector, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). PMI figures in April leaped from the 58.7 seen in March to 59.6, just shy of February’s eight-year peak of 59.8. New orders increased at their fastest rate since September 2014, fed by hikes in domestic demand, which more than made up for a slight fall in export orders.

Managers surveyed in KSA pointed to several factors boosting new orders: Rising tourism, more lavish consumer spending, and new infrastructure projects topped the list of factors driving increased demand. Export sales, on the other hand, saw a slight setback, with respondents citing fierce competition and shaky economies overseas. Booming orders had knock-on effects as they pushed firms to hire more and stockpile inventories to stay on top of demand. New staff helped businesses put a dent in their backlogs and firms successfully negotiated more timely deliveries, particularly from domestic suppliers. Nevertheless, more expensive raw materials and higher staffing costs increased businesses’ input costs. Managers were upbeat about the future, citing solid sales pipelines, a good overall economy and supportive government policies as reasons for optimism.

Over in Qatar, a similar acceleration in sales saw PMI figures rise for the fifth time in six months, according to Qatar Financial Center (QFC) PMI released yesterday (pdf). April’s PMI reading came in at 54.4, up from 53.8 in March — the highest acceleration the index has seen since July 2022, placing the metric solidly above the long-run trend of 52.2. Despite some increases in prices of inputs, goods, and services, inflation seemed largely in check and the one-year outlook among managers was overwhelmingly positive.

Orders in April grew at their fastest rate in nine months with a broadened customer base, new projects, and new products driving the trend. As elsewhere in the GCC, businesses in Qatar hired more to keep up with the soaring demand with employment rising to a nine-month peak. Despite the deluge of new orders, businesses were able to reduce their backlogs thanks to new hires and better productivity.

Qatar’s financial sector was once again the star, with activity in that sector growing for its 22nd consecutive month and outpacing growth in the broader private sector economy, both in terms of total activity and new work,” QFC CEO Yousuf Mohamed Al Jaida said in his customary comment.

Egypt’s PMI reading was less sanguine as non-oil private sector activity remained in contraction territory, although the rate of contraction softened, according to S&P Global’s Egypt PMI (pdf). The composite index posted 47.3 in April, rising from March’s 46.7 and hitting the highest level since October last year.

New orders fell, but at the softest rate in four months. Likewise, firms’ output continued to decline but at the slowest rate in six months, while firms cut jobs at a significantly lower rate than in recent months. Managers surveyed continued to cite the usual suspects of high inflation and import controls as being responsible for tepid sales and impaired output.

The silver lining #1- The construction industry may have rounded the bend as it recorded growth for the first time in 10 months.

The silver lining #2- The report points to some signs that inflation may have finally bottomed out in Egypt. More stability in the FX market translated into more contained purchase price inflation for firms than the month prior. Put together with the softest increases in staffing costs in eight months, input costs increased at their slowest rate in one year and inflation was lower than the long-run trend. Nevertheless, persistently high prices for raw materials meant that firms’ purchases continued their downfall and businesses had to keep gnawing at their inventories to meet demand. The spare capacity also meant that backlogs decreased for a third straight month.

Despite the softening inflation, outlook is at rock-bottom: Negativity loomed as managers’ outlook continued to fall — reaching an all-time low. Respondents cited sluggish demand locally and abroad, as well as lingering inflation, as reasons for a gloomy one-year forecast.

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